Which governors race will Republicans overperform the most compared to 2018?

[Chips]

TBH, I think SD is the pretty obvious answer. OK and PA will likely also see double digit shifts toward the GOP. OH also if DeWine holds on in the Republican primary. MI and FL could as well.

[President Johnson]

Florida. DeSantis will win by double digits.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Kansas, Iowa, New York, and New Mexico

I will include Vermont and New Hampshire since the question asked in relation to 2018 not 2020

Georgia can be a sleeper, if Kemp wins the primary (which he likely does) polling is pointing towards a margin of over 5 pts against Abrams. That wouldn't be as massive as the others on the list but a 4 or 5 pt swing in what is considered a deeply polarized state would be pretty impressive.

[MT Treasurer]

Obviously South Dakota (with Oklahoma pretty close)

[lfromnj]

Obviously South Dakota

Yeah, probably PA by net voted but could be FL

[Schiff for Senate]

Kansas, Iowa, New York, and New Mexico

I will include Vermont and New Hampshire since the question asked in relation to 2018 not 2020

Georgia can be a sleeper, if Kemp wins the primary (which he likely does) polling is pointing towards a margin of over 5 pts against Abrams. That wouldn't be as massive as the others on the list but a 4 or 5 pt swing in what is considered a deeply polarized state would be pretty impressive.

Isn't Scott retiring? I believe he is, and if so, the GOP will not come even remotely close to Scott's 15-point win in the state back in 2018, red wave (or even red tsunami, if there hypothetically was one) or no.

Also I can't see Kemp win by over 5 points.

[Utah Neolib]

Kansas, Iowa, New York, and New Mexico

I will include Vermont and New Hampshire since the question asked in relation to 2018 not 2020

Georgia can be a sleeper, if Kemp wins the primary (which he likely does) polling is pointing towards a margin of over 5 pts against Abrams. That wouldn't be as massive as the others on the list but a 4 or 5 pt swing in what is considered a deeply polarized state would be pretty impressive.

Isn't Scott retiring? I believe he is, and if so, the GOP will not come even remotely close to Scott's 15-point win in the state back in 2018, red wave (or even red tsunami, if there hypothetically was one) or no.

Also I can't see Kemp win by over 5 points.

To my knowledge Phill Scott hasn’t declared for re-election but hasn’t said he’ll retire.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Florida. DeSantis will win by double digits.

Lol you and Sir Muhammad thinks that FL is a plus 12 R state like TX no it's not it's an R plus 3 state and he underpolled Gillum and barley won did you know we wom less votes in 2018 than we did in 2020 we won like 45M abd 80M in 2020 CRIST will win trust me

OH is not a plus 14 R state and neither is IA they're R plus 5 states we won them with Obama and Biden obviously AK, SC, SD Noem only won by 4 and Dunleavy will win 70/30


We need more polling from the real battlegrounds, they keep polling GA, NV and AZ the same states, and NY

[wbrocks67]

Pennsylvania by net, since Wolf won by 18 last time.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Alaska is another possibility

Kansas too if partisanship wins out Kelly could lose by 10 or smtg.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Alaska is another possibility

Kansas too if partisanship wins out Kelly could lose by 10 or smtg.

Lol did you know Beshear has a 60 Approval and so does Manchin incumbent D's stand a better chance the reason why Bollier lost there wasnt incumbent there hasn't been one poll in KS

Did you know 2003/2011 Sebelius was Reelected until Obama took her in 2010 for Cabinet that's 2T Gov of KS, Laura Kelly will get reelected, look at Brown another incumbent D whom always get reelected, incumbent in red states are much more likely to get reelected

But you have Mark Kelly losing and CCM Kelly is leading Brnovich 50(/47 and CCM is leading Laxalt 42/34%, another user whom has an R nut maps

[Schiff for Senate]

Pennsylvania by net, since Wolf won by 18 last time.

Yeah it blows my mind what an electoral titan Wolf was. In 2014 (a red wave year) he won by like 9 or 10 points, and in 2018, he won by 18 and won PA16 (district in northwest PA that broke for Trump by a solid 18 points). I don't get why he was so popular and had so much crossover appeal given that he seemed to be pretty much a standard liberal Democrat, but whatever. In 2022, I don't expect Democrats to hold the governorship (if they win it at all) by more than a point.

[Sir Mohamed]

SD, OK, PA and FL.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Josh Shapiro is Favored like Fetterman, in one poll Oz was down 9 pts to Fetterman it didn't get posted in the polls but there was one Shapiro and Fetterman are gonna win 51/47

Dunleavy is definitely gonna Overperform Elvi Gray-Jackson dropped out and AK is going strong R this Nov

[Sir Mohamed]

Josh Shapiro is Favored like Fetterman, in one poll Oz was down 9 pts to Fetterman it didn't get posted in the polls but there was one Shapiro and Fetterman are gonna win 51/47

Dunleavy is definitely gonna Overperform Elvi Gray-Jackson dropped out and AK is going strong R this Nov

Shapiro has a serious chance to win, though it won't be by more than 2-3 pts. Gov. Wolf won reelection by 17 pts. in 2018.