OH SEN 2024 - Sherrod Brown running

[prag_prog]

Unsurprising. Obviously less vulnerable than Manchin, but more vulnerable than Tester. Not DOA by any means, but it’s going to be an uphill battle for him. Lean R.

how is he more vulnerable than Tester?

[I need an explanation]

If Portman is at the top of the ticket, Brown is finished.

[S019]

Unsurprising. Obviously less vulnerable than Manchin, but more vulnerable than Tester. Not DOA by any means, but it’s going to be an uphill battle for him. Lean R.

how is he more vulnerable than Tester?

Tester has an odd appeal to MT and maybe this year means the Dem downballot strength in Montana is running out and he could be Blanched in 4 years, but I doubt it. Also Dem downballot strength has been eroding in Ohio for far longer, and while MT swung quite Dem this year on the presidential level, Ohio barely budged. Also add in the fact that Jim Renacci was an unpopular lobbyist and the race was triaged and Brown won by a very underwhelming margin compared to expectations. In fact the biggest sign of Dem downballot strength eroding in Ohio might be Tim Ryan barely surviving in his formerly Democratic sink seat. If Brown gets those types of numbers out of the Mahoning Valley in 4 years, he isn't winning. This is the first year we've seen downballot strength for Democrats erode in MT, while it has been eroding in OH for much longer. I think a good gauge of MT Democratic downballot strength will be the western congressional district in 2022, if MT gets two seats, given in statewide competitive races, Dems usually easily win that part of the state, if Republicans are winning that one big, then the days of Democratic MT downballot strength are over, but until then, the evidence we have suggests that OH is less elastic downballot than MT, and OH and MT are states where elasticity helps Democrats.

[Alben Barkley]

Given I think Ohio will vote for the Republican nominee by more than 10 points in 2024, I think Brown is very likely done

Even if that’s true, Manchin survived a situation like that in 2012. Susan Collins did this year. Particularly popular incumbents in their states can defy national trends, we’ve seen it many times.

[Tekken_Guy]

Republicans will have to be real idiots not to run Anthony Gonzalez.

[SnowLabrador]

If Portman is at the top of the ticket, Brown is finished.

Same, but I don't think Portman will run for President ever.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown is gonna win reelection and he said he wants to run in 2028, I would vote for him in a primary against Harris

[TJ in Oregon]

Given I think Ohio will vote for the Republican nominee by more than 10 points in 2024, I think Brown is very likely done

Even if that’s true, Manchin survived a situation like that in 2012. Susan Collins did this year. Particularly popular incumbents in their states can defy national trends, we’ve seen it many times.

Brown is more popular in Ohio than a generic Democrat, but the appeal is nowhere near as far-reaching as Manchin's. At the end of the day, Manchin is a question mark on every piece of legislation. Brown is not.

It's too early to say what 2024 will look like, but Brown has an uphill battle.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown isn't in an uphill battle, part of the reason why Biden lost OH, there wasn't a Senate race and neither was there one, in FL.  Brown can win OH on Biden coattails and whomever challenges Rick Scott can win off of Bidens coattails.

GA may be the only state to flip back R in 2024, there isn't any Senate race

Tester, Scott and Manchin are the weak links in 2024

Baldwin, Brown, Rosen and Sinema are vulnerable but not the weakest link