2014 under Romney

[Samof94]

How would  the Dems have done had Obama lost??? I am discussing the midterm results being worse than predicted for our universe.

[Left Wing]

Roughly what the governor's results would look like but I could see a couple more flipping if Romney's popularity got bad such as AZ, ID and SC

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm honestly more interested in the Senate picture had Romney won. Would there have been a D Wave?

My thoughts:

Hawaii (special): Brian Schatz defeats Campbell Cavasso 73-25 (D Hold)

The Oklahoma and South Carolina specials don't happen, as both Tom Coburn and Jim DeMint decide to stick around.

Democrats gain Georgia, Kentucky and Maine.

Republicans gain South Dakota and West Virginia.

Final result is D+1.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I'm honestly more interested in the Senate picture had Romney won. Would there have been a D Wave?

My thoughts:

Hawaii (special): Brian Schatz defeats Campbell Cavasso 73-25 (D Hold)

The Oklahoma and South Carolina specials don't happen, as both Tom Coburn and Jim DeMint decide to stick around.

Democrats gain Georgia, Kentucky and Maine.

Republicans gain South Dakota and West Virginia.

Final result is D+1.

Collins survived 2020, she certainly survives this 2014.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hmm If Romney won I assume the tea party wasn’t as strong as well so he doesn’t have to run as far to the right as he did so due to that I think in 2012


Republicans also win : IN, MO and  probably drags the republicans to victory in ND, and VA . So that makes the senate composition 51-49 for the democrats  . The gop also probably pick up a few seats in the house so have say a 247-188 majority in the House

In 2014 I think Democrats pick up around 20-25 seats in the house so the House composition is 222-227 republicans to 208-213 democrats 

In the Senate : I think Republicans pick up AR, LA, WV , SD and democrats pick up KS with Orman  so republicans take a 52-48 majority



Then in 2016 I think republicans pick up 10-15 seats and get a 237-198 majority. In the senate they pick up NH and NV while losing IL so they expand their majority to 53-47


In 2018 I think Democrats pick up 30 seats and get a 228-207 majority. In the senate Republicans pickup FL while Democrats pickup VA and NV so republicans have their majority reduced to 52-48

[Pink Panther]

If Romney is winning 2012, the GOP I think would flip ND and MT from the real map, as the Senate composition would remain 53-47 Dem. During 2014, I believe the GOP would still flip SD, MT, WV, and probably AR and LA due to the runoff, but wouldn't gain CO, IA, AK, and NC. However, the GOP would still win the Senate, due to many Blue Dogs retiring, and increased polarization would seal the Dems fate in those states. The composition would be 52-48. The GOP would still retain the House, due to gerrymandering. With 2016, it would be Hillary vs. Romney, probably, and I would have no idea what would happen in the Presidency, Senate, or House, honestly.

[Samof94]

If Romney is winning 2012, the GOP I think would flip ND and MT from the real map, as the Senate composition would remain 53-47 Dem. During 2014, I believe the GOP would still flip SD, MT, WV, and probably AR and LA due to the runoff, but wouldn't gain CO, IA, AK, and NC. However, the GOP would still win the Senate, due to many Blue Dogs retiring, and increased polarization would seal the Dems fate in those states. The composition would be 52-48. The GOP would still retain the House, due to gerrymandering. With 2016, it would be Hillary vs. Romney, probably, and I would have no idea what would happen in the Presidency, Senate, or House, honestly.

Sounds about right. Hillary would likely do much worse.

[dw93]

Before I answer, let me say how I think 2012 would've gone with Romney winning. First and foremost, a Romney win would be close. Only FL, OH, VA, and by a hair CO (the tipping point state) would flip giving Romney an electoral win of 275, and likely a narrow popular vote win. Secondly, the GOP would keep the House, though I doubt they net many gains, if any with a Romney win being so close. The Senate would be flip thanks to would be VP Ryan being a tie breaking vote, as while the Democrats would still win IN and hold MO, they would lose Senate seats in ND and MT, giving the GOP a net gain of 1 seat. Mitch would likely nuke the filibuster entirely, so the GOP would spend 2013 and 2014 ramming tax cuts, deregulation, and a repeal of Obamacare (and likely do so with no replacement), and would likely do so with Paul Ryan casting the tie breaking vote in some cases, particularly with the Obamacare repeal. I also wouldn't put it past the GOP to ram through some of Paul Ryan's Randian Medicare proposals through too.

Now all of this, as well as likely some sort military intervention in Syria (though it could be limited to airstrikes) are no doubt gonna fire up the Democrats for 2014, the question is will it be enough for them to retake either chamber of Congress? The Senate map would still be unfavorable to the Democrats, so best case scenario I can see for them is that they hold onto all the seats they lost by less than 10 points (NC, IA, CO, AK) while narrowly winning GA, thus netting 1 seat, which would give them 51 seats. I could also see it being a wash or even see the GOP netting gains of 1-2 seats, especially if Romney doesn't go to war in Syria. As for the House, I think the GOP would net gains in the House in 2012, but not many due to Romney likely having minimal coattails so let's just say for the sake of argument the GOP nets a gain of 5 in 2012, getting them 247. In that case, the Democrats would need a net gain of 19 to retake the House, which would be more than doable and probably likely (though I previously didn't think it was).

So Romney in either case goes into 2015 with divided Government, and while not a lot gets done, I doubt Romney would be as gridlocked as Obama post 2010 or even as gridlocked as Trump was after 2018, so I feel like a compromise bill or two as well as a decent economy would give Romney a narrow to decisive win against Hillary Clinton, so long as he doesn't get the US bogged down in any middle eastern wars.

[GregTheGreat657]

I'm honestly more interested in the Senate picture had Romney won. Would there have been a D Wave?

My thoughts:

Hawaii (special): Brian Schatz defeats Campbell Cavasso 73-25 (D Hold)

The Oklahoma and South Carolina specials don't happen, as both Tom Coburn and Jim DeMint decide to stick around.

Democrats gain Georgia, Kentucky and Maine.

Republicans gain South Dakota and West Virginia.

Final result is D+1.

Democrats gain GA and KY in 2014? Mitch is unpopular, but not THAT unpopular to lose a state Romney presumably won by over 20. Also, GA was not ready to flip in 2014, as the state barely went blue 6 years later, and a whole lot of shift and demographic change in the ATL suburbs, plus a bad set of circumstances for the GOP

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm honestly more interested in the Senate picture had Romney won. Would there have been a D Wave?

My thoughts:

Hawaii (special): Brian Schatz defeats Campbell Cavasso 73-25 (D Hold)

The Oklahoma and South Carolina specials don't happen, as both Tom Coburn and Jim DeMint decide to stick around.

Democrats gain Georgia, Kentucky and Maine.

Republicans gain South Dakota and West Virginia.

Final result is D+1.

Democrats gain GA and KY in 2014? Mitch is unpopular, but not THAT unpopular to lose a state Romney presumably won by over 20. Also, GA was not ready to flip in 2014, as the state barely went blue 6 years later, and a whole lot of shift and demographic change in the ATL suburbs, plus a bad set of circumstances for the GOP

Mitch probably was saved in 2014 by Obama being President, quite honestly. Against Alison Lundergan Grimes in 2020, he loses.

As for Georgia, Michelle Nunn or Jason Carter narrowly wins, but they'd narrowly lose in 2020 with an incumbent Democrat (probably Hillary) seeking reelection.

[Telesquare]

At the very least, Mark Udall and Kay Hagan hold on and Bruce Braley wins.

Mark Begich would also have been heavily favored.

I don't see much else changing however. Unless maybe Milton Wolf defeated Pat Roberts in the primary and then lost the general election to the independent Greg Orman. The Georgia Suburbs were still favorable enough to Republicans back then, so I think Perdue would have still won.

Arkansas, Louisiana, South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia would have still been pickups for the GOP with the same candidates.

2014 was guaranteed to be a good Republican year no matter what.

Democrats would have also poured money into Mississippi if McDaniel had beat Cochran in the primary.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Democrats are basically guaranteed to hold NC and CO regardless of how popular President Romney is. AK and LA are probably Democratic wins, and KY and IA are also possible.

[Del Tachi]

Hard to tell.  There's a lot of Senate seats that could go either way; the only seat I see Republicans still strongly favored to gain under this scenario is Arkansas.  SD is probably Tilt R.  I think Landrieu, Hagan and Begich survive a Romney midterm, and MT/WV depend on retirements.  I doubt GA or KY flip to Democrats.

Only relevant to me, a Romney presidency probably means Cochran retires in 2014 instead of going for another term.  He only sought reelection because Republicans were favored to win the majority, thus meaning he would be chair of the appropriations committee.  He'd retire under a scenario where Republicans' odds are perceived as much worse.