While I think the consensus is shifting, I see a lot of people looking at Biden's margin in this election and taking it as a lackluster victory. There are definitely reasons to view it that way, losses in the House, control of the Senate as a tossup, a good but not amazing Electoral Vote win, but I want to make the case that Biden's victory is actually more substantial than even Obama's 2008 win. And I want to do that by looking at Biden's percentage of Voting Age Citizens (VAC).
There are places in the world that require candidates, referendums, or other ballot initiatives to get a certain level of turnout in order to pass. In my opinion, this puts a lot of power in the hands of the opposition, essentially being able to boycott such elections to force them to fail even if they have widespread support. Rather than looking at the margin between Biden's supporters and his opposition, we should give some merit to just how large Biden's base of support was. The number of votes Biden got, even adjusting for population, was the highest of any of the past six elections. While there is no doubt that Obama had a strong 2008 campaign, he benefited from a weak opposition and a much less partisan and much more favorable environment. In 2008, Obama got 32.9% of the VAC vote. Biden already has 33.1% and is on track to increase that by another full percentage. While I wouldn't say that getting a little over a third of potential voters is great and a sign to radically alter the course of the country, it is definitely better than getting less than a third.
I'm planning on turning this into a larger project, but for now I will be tracking and updating the map as more numbers come in.
Some more maps:
Candidate (color): # of States (national percentage)
Biden (light red): 26 States (33.1%)
Obama (red): 20 States + DC (32.9% & 30.6%)
Kerry (dark red): 4 States (29.2%)
Rhode Island: Obama leads Biden 38.6% to 38.2%.
Minnesota: Obama leads Biden 41.2% to 40.9%.
Kentucky: Obama leads Biden 23.5% to 22.8%.
Idaho: Obama leads Biden 22.2% to 21.6%.
Alabama: Obama leads Biden 23.1% to 22.5%.
Trump (blue): 24 States (30.7% & 28.0%)
Bush (dark blue): 25 States + DC (30.7% & 26.0%)
McCain (light blue): Mississippi (28.3%)
Romney (light blue): Massachusetts (28.3%)
Wisconsin: Bush leads Trump 36.4% to 36.3%.
Idaho: Bush leads Trump 42.0% to 41.7%.
Illinois: Bush leads Trump 27.5% to 26.7%.
Virginia: Bush leads Trump 32.1% to 31.3%.
New Hampshire: Bush leads Trump 34.8% to 33.8%.
Connecticut: Bush leads Trump 28.2% to 27.2%.
I'd like to go back further than 2000, but Voting Age Citizen numbers become increasingly difficult to find the further back you go. 2016 and 2012 use American Community Survey data. 2020, 2008, 2004, and 2000 use
Election Project data (VEP*[1-% Noncitizen]). Candidate votes are
the certified results from the FEC exept from 2020, where I use
Cook's National Popular Vote Tracker. 2020 Numbers were pulled at 12:00 AM Saturday, November 14th.
