Georgia is the only state...

[AlterEgo]

Florida is the most likely state to flip from 2020 to 2024.

No, Florida is gone.

Agreed. Georgia has already flipped half as many times (once) as Florida has since 2000. Focus on Georgia, Texas and North Carolina if you're gonna crack the solid south.  Florida. Every year the Republican stronghold of senior citizens replenishes itself even further. Maybe some other time

Eventually they are going to run out of old people with the means to move there.

I really wonder what the effect of the $15 minimum wage by 2026 will be.

I hope it weakens the current industries that hold the state captive and forces a reorganization around higher wage industries. Then again, who wants to build a server farm where there are hurricanes? Then again, who wants to build a server farm where there are earthquakes?

Yeah, so much negativity around FL. I really, really, really want to argue against it. And I would have as late as Nov 2. I mean, tons of registered Dems in the state. Governor races skewed because they're in mid-term years when Dems have terrible turnout, etc. But, right now I just can't argue. It really does seem to be the unobtainable mirage.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A Democrat has never defeated an incumbent president without Georgia

An incumbent of any party hasn't lost without the Democrat winning Georgia since 1840. If you count Jefferson as a Democrat, then 1840 is the only exception.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The last state to vote for a candidate with no neighbors of the same color, that does not touch an international border, an ocean, or a Great Lake, was WV in 1988, and 1960 NV before that

“The floating states”

The only place I could see that happening any time soon is Colorado, and that would take a massive GOP wave.

The only Republican state it would even be theoretically possible with is Arkansas...and it would be one of the last GOP holdouts.  I suppose South Dakota would work too if Minnesota were to flip, but there is no universe where South Dakota is going Democratic while Minnesota goes Republican in the foreseeable future.  Likewise, if Virginia flipped back, it would open up Tennessee, and Colorado flipping would open up a solid handful of possibilities for that.  But, Virginia and Colorado aren't going to vote Republican while states like Tennessee, Kansas, Nebraska, or Wyoming vote Democrat.

Since 2008, Arkansas has been the only state that doesn't touch an international border, ocean, great lake, or blue state.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The only states that the winning Democratic campaigns of 1916, 1976, and 2020 all won were MD and GA. Throw in 1948, you get just GA. Of course it's easy to eliminate GA too. And HI has never voted against a winning Democrat.

[Figueira]

The only states that the winning Democratic campaigns of 1916, 1976, and 2020 all won were MD and GA. Throw in 1948, you get just GA. Of course it's easy to eliminate GA too. And HI has never voted against a winning Democrat.

1916, 1948, 1976, 2020: the only states that voted Republican all four times were South Dakota and Indiana.