Will Arkansas swing right?

[wimp]

its swung right every year since 1996, from 35% in 1992 to 62% in 2020.

[DaleCooper]

Part of me wants to say that there's not much room left for it to swing, but I need to just accept that there seems to be no floor for Democrats in some of these states.

[neostassenite31]

Part of me wants to say that there's not much room left for it to swing, but I need to just accept that there seems to be no floor for Democrats in some of these states.

Rural AR is shredding population at a remarkable pace with many counties losing people by double digit percentages over the past decade. The few counties that are growing in pop either swung left slightly or stayed stagnant.  

While the GOP margin will likely continue to increase in rural AR counties, eventually you get to a point where the effect of rapid population loss overtakes the shift in overall margin and the raw lead in votes in those rural counties begin to drop.

The counties that are growing in pop and NOT swinging right (Little Rock and the northwest corner) then begin to make a bigger impact

[Pro-Israel, anti-Bibi]

[kwabbit]

The GOP can probably get up to about 65% reliably, but the black population in Arkansas prevents them from getting 70+%. West Virginia is only 3% black, allowing the Dems to just fall and fall, but Arkansas is 15% black, giving the Dems some floor.

[One Term Floridian]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/09/arkansas-chief-resigns-parler-democrats/

https://www.travelandleisure.com/travel-news/northwest-arkansas-relocation-initiative

www.katv.com/amp/news/local/as-hospitalizations-rise-arkansas-governor-warns-of-difficult-decisions-over-virus

Lmao these are the top articles that come up for AR on Google. Definitely more ways to trend right, they have.

[Figueira]

It'll probably swing whichever way the country as a whole is swinging.

[bagelman]

It will Trend Right.

[Real Texan Politics]

Outside of the Fayetteville area I'd say yes.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Outside of the Fayetteville area I'd say yes.

I think the Fayetteville area is the exact type of suburban type area that will snap back a bit in 2022 and 2024.

[AGA]

Yes

[SnowLabrador]

Yes

[Hope For A New Era]

Would've said no, but the Republicans seem to truly have no ceiling in some of these rural southern areas.

[TDAS04]

Outside of the Fayetteville and Little Rock areas I'd say yes.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think it will inch more towards Trump a little, especially the Delta counties. I think this is probably the last year Arkansas swings right though.