If Biden hadn’t underperformed in Miami-Dade...

[iceman]

If Biden had not underperformed in Miami-Dade, let’s say he gets 60% to 39% Trump, I reckon he still loses the state by about 150,000 to 200,000 votes. So it’s not really only about Miami-Dade, I guess the GOP really has the advantage now in Florida with or without the swings in the southeastern part of the state.

[Devils30]

What if Biden meets Gillum numbers in Broward and Palm Beach? Gotta assume his Dade collapse is related to this weakness too.

[Catalyst138]

Florida would have been a tossup without the loss in Miami-Dade, now it is permanently Lean R if Dems can’t find a way to get their margins back up in that county. So yes, Miami-Dade is still important (as well as the counties next to it).

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

We must remember that D's UNDERPERFORMED in both OH and FL, there wasn't any Senate to juice the turnout. If there was, D's would have been more completetive like they will be in 2024 when Sherrod Brown wins reelection and Rick Scott is gonna get blanched

[Progressive Pessimist]

He probably still would have lost, but probably been within expectations of 1% or so.

I don't even care anymore, we Democrats need to officially be done with this state. Let's concentrate on Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina instead.

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

He probably still would have lost, but probably been within expectations of 1% or so.

I don't even care anymore, we Democrats need to officially be done with this state. Let's concentrate on Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina instead.

And Texas.
It’s time to try hard with the RGV and juice suburban turnout.
I knew it wasn’t there in 2020 but 2024/2028 are different.

[Skill and Chance]

Florida always got more attention that it deserved since the 2000 recounts.  Pretty much everything since then has been more Republican leaning.  Even when Obama won, it was by much less than the NPV margin each time.

I understand why national Dems pursued Florida this year, because there was at least some evidence that Biden would have a special appeal to retirees during COVID, but now it's clearly time to move on.

[TML]

I just calculated the raw vote margins for the 14 suburban/exurban counties in the I-4 area, and Trump won them by 494K votes this year, up from 449K votes in 2016. These margins are killing Democrats - Obama would have lost FL in both of his races if he had lost these counties by the same margin that Hillary/Biden did.

[BaldEagle1991]

The gap would be very similar to how Gillum lost to Desantis.

[Progressive Pessimist]

He probably still would have lost, but probably been within expectations of 1% or so.

I don't even care anymore, we Democrats need to officially be done with this state. Let's concentrate on Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina instead.

And Texas.
It’s time to try hard with the RGV and juice suburban turnout.
I knew it wasn’t there in 2020 but 2024/2028 are different.

Agreed. Texas is still worth investing in, but I think it's still going to take a bit longer before it actually flips unlike the other three which have or will again if they are properly contested. We have to put the work in for Texas though to get to that point, you're right.

[dspNY]

There are also counties like Volusia that have a decent size population and used to be Democratic but swung hard Republican. Gore, Kerry and Obama all won Volusia. Even St. Lucie County apparently went Trump this time and that is typically a D county

[Calthrina950]

There are also counties like Volusia that have a decent size population and used to be Democratic but swung hard Republican. Gore, Kerry and Obama all won Volusia. Even St. Lucie County apparently went Trump this time and that is typically a D county

St. Lucie County also voted for Trump in 2016, but Trump improved there and carried it with a majority this year, after having won it with a plurality against Clinton. Volusia County certainly has shifted dramatically Republican. Obama won it in 2008 and lost it in 2012 by just over 1%, but Trump carried it by 14% against Biden this year.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I just calculated the raw vote margins for the 14 suburban/exurban counties in the I-4 area, and Trump won them by 494K votes this year, up from 449K votes in 2016. These margins are killing Democrats - Obama would have lost FL in both of his races if he had lost these counties by the same margin that Hillary/Biden did.

That's true. Biden did better in these counties percentage-wise than HRC, but as long as the GOP keeps netting votes from new retirees, things look bad. Even if you fix the South Florida problem, bumping Miami-Dade and Palm Beach to 60-40 and Broward to 70-30, Biden still loses the state by 70,000 votes. Other than (relatively small) Osecola County, Biden didn't noticeably underperform HRC anywhere in the state in percentage terms but these net votes are brutal.

We joke about billionaires buying up land in the Great Plains to produce new blue states but the best thing Bloomberg could do is to buy every undeveloped chunk of property in Florida and sit on it. So long as these soulless Midwestern retirement communities keep going up, Democrats just can't find new votes in other counties to offset them.

Take Sumter County, for example. Trump won the county by 36 points, 3 points worse than last time. At the same time, he netted 3,334 votes in the county thanks to population growth. You can take this and apply it to every other red county in Central and Southwest Florida. I have no idea how the Democrats are supposed to deal with this even if they win back Miami Latinos.

Hell, Trump even netted more votes out of Pasco than Biden did out of Hillsborough. How tf you you win Florida if you can't even net Dem votes out of the Tampa MSA?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Another fun fact about Florida. If the Western Panhandle was a part of Alabama like it obviously should be, Clinton would have won the state in 2016. This time around, Trump actually won the Florida Peninsula which should not be possible for a Republican. Jfc.

[Brittain33]

Meanwhile, Biden had the best results in Escambia County since Jimmy Carter's first race. The county has been slowly trending Democratic since 2008.

[Hammy]

Meanwhile, Biden had the best results in Escambia County since Jimmy Carter's first race. The county has been slowly trending Democratic since 2008.

Why did the western Panhandle trend D so much this year? That's one of the more puzzling things with the state.

[Roll Roons]

Meanwhile, Biden had the best results in Escambia County since Jimmy Carter's first race. The county has been slowly trending Democratic since 2008.

Why did the western Panhandle trend D so much this year? That's one of the more puzzling things with the state.

Could have been something to do with Trump pissing off the military?

[gigantomachyusa]

It's not just Miami. Dems have a problem north of the I-4 corridor. Those rural/exurban counties are just brutal. It's death by 1,000 cuts. Hillsborough County and Pinellas County in Tampa are 2.2 million of the 3.2 million in the metro area. Yet the remaining 1 million is so red that they pulled the entire metro to Trump.

[SenatorCouzens]

Florida always got more attention that it deserved since the 2000 recounts.  Pretty much everything since then has been more Republican leaning.  Even when Obama won, it was by much less than the NPV margin each time.

I understand why national Dems pursued Florida this year, because there was at least some evidence that Biden would have a special appeal to retirees during COVID, but now it's clearly time to move on.

To be fair, it's important because it's the third largest state and until very very recently the biggest swing state.