Ridiculously overpriced PredictIt markets

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6956/Will-Trump-win-any-of-Pennsylvania,-Arizona-or-Georgia
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6964/Will-Trump-win-any-of-Michigan,-Wisconsin-or-Nevada

[lfromnj]

Predict in the end once you got past the 15% buys wasn't that bad.  Problem is no one buys the 85% stuff because you can't make any money off that.

[n1240]

Predict in the end once you got past the 15% buys wasn't that bad.  Problem is no one buys the 85% stuff because you can't make any money off that.

It actually adds up if you can effectively identify 80+ cent contracts that are effectively a guarantee to win and consistently use a part of your capital to churn out free returns. Depositing money just to invest in 80+ cent contracts then withdraw is not an effective return though. The pricing disparity in these contracts is actually an effect of trading + trader limits. For every person trying to buy a maximum of $850 of a 20 cent yes contract, you'll need four other traders trying to max $850 at 80 cents no on the other side, so disparities can arise since a greater amount of demand is required on the opposite end to create a more accurately priced market for a resolution like this.

[AGA]

Predict in the end once you got past the 15% buys wasn't that bad.  Problem is no one buys the 85% stuff because you can't make any money off that.

It actually adds up if you can effectively identify 80+ cent contracts that are effectively a guarantee to win and consistently use a part of your capital to churn out free returns. Depositing money just to invest in 80+ cent contracts then withdraw is not an effective return though. The pricing disparity in these contracts is actually an effect of trading + trader limits. For every person trying to buy a maximum of $850 of a 20 cent yes contract, you'll need four other traders trying to max $850 at 80 cents no on the other side, so disparities can arise since a greater amount of demand is required on the opposite end to create a more accurately priced market for a resolution like this.

Yep, I just go for reasonably safe bets that have decent payoff. Have never gotten a bet wrong.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Predict in the end once you got past the 15% buys wasn't that bad.  Problem is no one buys the 85% stuff because you can't make any money off that.

It actually adds up if you can effectively identify 80+ cent contracts that are effectively a guarantee to win and consistently use a part of your capital to churn out free returns. Depositing money just to invest in 80+ cent contracts then withdraw is not an effective return though. The pricing disparity in these contracts is actually an effect of trading + trader limits. For every person trying to buy a maximum of $850 of a 20 cent yes contract, you'll need four other traders trying to max $850 at 80 cents no on the other side, so disparities can arise since a greater amount of demand is required on the opposite end to create a more accurately priced market for a resolution like this.

Yep, I just go for reasonably safe bets that have decent payoff. Have never gotten a bet wrong.

That's what these are!

[Alben Barkley]

I’ve already put so much money into PredictIt just waiting to be paid out, but the Trumpets are REALLY tempting me to put even more in now.

OK, I just maxed “No” LOL. MAGA cucks just keep giving me money. Sad!

By the way, it has to be like 95 cents a share before you can’t make any money at all. At least 80 cents or less is easily worth it on safe bets.

[AGA]

I’ve already put so much money into PredictIt just waiting to be paid out, but the Trumpets are REALLY tempting me to put even more in now.

OK, I just maxed “No” LOL. MAGA cucks just keep giving me money. Sad!

By the way, it has to be like 95 cents a share before you can’t make any money at all. At least 80 cents or less is easily worth it on safe bets.

That's only true if you withdraw after every contract closes.

[Alben Barkley]

I’ve already put so much money into PredictIt just waiting to be paid out, but the Trumpets are REALLY tempting me to put even more in now.

OK, I just maxed “No” LOL. MAGA cucks just keep giving me money. Sad!

By the way, it has to be like 95 cents a share before you can’t make any money at all. At least 80 cents or less is easily worth it on safe bets.

That's only true if you withdraw after every contract closes.

Which I always do.

I always just put money into safe bets and then wait for them to close, cashing out the max.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Biden is up by 2.6% in MI, and it has already been called for him, and he is at  89 in MI on Predictit. NC which is uncalled, has Trump up 1.4%, Predictit has Trump at 98.

Stupid MAGA cultists.