Give your past self some unhelpful data about this election
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  Give your past self some unhelpful data about this election
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Author Topic: Give your past self some unhelpful data about this election  (Read 410 times)
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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« on: November 12, 2020, 01:47:28 PM »

Let's imagine you could somehow communicate with your past self from the week before the election. But let's also imagine you want to be a dick to them for whatever reason and you don't want to just tell them who won. You just want to confuse them with interesting data points that, if they posted all of them together on Atlas as coming from an authoritative source, would never be taken seriously. What would you tell them?

For example, here are some of mine:

- There will be a county in Texas that swings 55 points to Trump from 2016.
- Pennsylvania and Georgia vote for the same person.
- Nine days after the election, we will not have called the House races in either NY-1 or NY-18.
- Kenosha County swings to Trump
- Fox News calls Arizona on election night, but NYT still has not called it 9 days after the election.
- Lynchburg, VA votes to the left of Erie County, PA.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2020, 01:57:59 PM »

The only businesses that haven't come back from this Recession are Sports, Cruise Industry, Bars and Concessionaires, we are at 6.6 percent unemployment. Those entertainment industry are gonna stay like they are until there is a Pfizer vaccine


But, the hiding up of the stimulus package clearly backfired on Schumer by losing ME, IA and NC

With 6.6 percent unemployment D's weren't gonna win TX, KS, AK and MT Senate races
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2020, 02:24:20 PM »

The obvious one, if I wanted to be a real jerk, would be Miami-Dade results.

Florida and Wisconsin were called early Wednesday morning, but Nevada wasn't called until five days after the election.

Trump received more than 72 million votes.

Trump outperformed his 2016 margin in Ohio.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2020, 02:26:12 PM »

Love the idea of being a jerk to your past self. Here's mine:

- Alaska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Kentucky all take hours (if not days) for the networks to call.
- Fox News gets heat for calling a battleground early, later they are (kind of) vindicated
- Senate and presidential results tracked closer to each other than most folks thought
- The West Coast (WA/OR/CA) will continue it's leftward march
- There is record turnout
- Latinos live up to their reputation as a diverse demographic

..enough tidbits to get the brain going, but also vague/conflicting enough to leave a lot of questions.
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It's Perro Sanxe wot won it
Mimoha
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« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2020, 02:28:35 PM »

- Biden is on track to easily win more than 80 million votes.
- Alaska was called a week after Michigan.
- Georgia voted to the left of Florida and North Carolina.
- Minnesota voted to the left of the nation.
- Wisconsin was decided by less than 1 percentage point.
- Republicans gained a trifecta in New Hampshire.
- Dems failed to flip the Arizona legislature.
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It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2020, 02:49:03 PM »

If I really wanted to be a jerk to my past self...

-Miami-Dade margin
-Zapata County Margin
-Tillis wins re-election
-The swing map of Ohio
-The driftless margin
-Latinos swung to Trump
-Asians swung to Trump
-Over 5 house seats flipped to Republicans
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Malarkey Decider
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« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2020, 03:21:54 PM »

If I really wanted to be a jerk to my past self...

-Miami-Dade margin
-Zapata County Margin
-Tillis wins re-election
-The swing map of Ohio
-The driftless margin
-Latinos swung to Trump
-Asians swung to Trump
-Over 5 house seats flipped to Republicans

You probably would've thought you were a genius.
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It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2020, 04:13:24 PM »

If I really wanted to be a jerk to my past self...

-Miami-Dade margin
-Zapata County Margin
-Tillis wins re-election
-The swing map of Ohio
-The driftless margin
-Latinos swung to Trump
-Asians swung to Trump
-Over 5 house seats flipped to Republicans

You probably would've thought you were a genius.
True but I would have been absolutely miserable.
Inversely, I could always give myself the Delaware County margin, the Colorado margin, the Virginia county map, and the winner of Georgia to make myself feel like an idiot.
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Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver
freethinkingindy
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« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2020, 05:40:23 PM »
« Edited: November 12, 2020, 06:05:35 PM by Kyrsten Sinema Hack »

-RCV is not even used in Maine's Senate race because Susan Collins clears 50% of first choice votes
-Biden flips Duval, Pinellas, and Seminole but loses Florida by more than Hillary lost it in 2016
-Sununu outperforms polls by 25 points, GOP gains a trifecta in NH, but Biden wins NH by 8% and Shaheen carries every county
-Ben Ray Luján almost loses
-Republicans have a net gain in the House (without telling who wins the majority)
-Bollier does worse than Greg Orman
-Amy McGrath and Marquita Bradshaw get the same % of the vote
-The Rhode Island Speaker of the House loses reelection
-Trump carries at least one of the Fajita Strips
-Georgia and Pennsylvania vote for the same candidate but North Carolina votes the opposite way
-Fox News calls Arizona days before Nevada
-Merkley loses some counties that he won in the red wave of 2014 against a QAnon nut lady
-Vigo and Valencia Counties lose their bellwether status (as do Ohio and Florida) - although this might give it away
-The states with at least one Clinton-Trump county and at least one Trump-Biden county: Ohio, Illinois, Texas, North Carolina, Mississippi, and Colorado
-Trump wins Lorain and Mahoning Counties and almost wins Muskegon
-Biden wins twice as many NH counties as Hillary did in 2016
-Donna Shalala loses
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
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« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2020, 05:46:53 PM »

If I really wanted to be a jerk to my past self...

-Miami-Dade margin
-Zapata County Margin
-Tillis wins re-election
-The swing map of Ohio
-The driftless margin
-Latinos swung to Trump
-Asians swung to Trump
-Over 5 house seats flipped to Republicans

Your past self already expected worse.
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Mr. Illini
liberty142
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2020, 05:58:59 PM »

Florida is going to be called quickly for Trump on election night. It would worry the hell out of me, and it did.
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Motorcity
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« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2020, 07:06:17 PM »

1. Trump won Florida with the largest margin in modern history. It was called early in the night
2. Trump won historic margins of Hispanics and blacks and Asians

Telling me this on Nov 2 would have caused me to have a nervous breakdown
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