Tipping Point: Wisconsin!

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This is subject to vote counts being finalized, but it looks like WI just barely edged out PA to be the electoral tipping point. Its PVI is -2.8, which is almost identical to 2016. The closest states from left to right:

NH->MN->NE-02->NV->MI->PA->WI->AZ->GA->NC->FL->TX->ME-02

There were four states within one point. Biden only needed two of them, but ended up with four.

Big Dem trends in competitive states:

CO: +2.8 D to +10.1 D (no longer competitive)
NE-02: +4.1 R to +3.2 D
ME: +0.9 D to +6.6 D
NH: +1.4 R to +3.9 D
MN: +0.6 R to +3.7 D
GA: +7.2 R to +3.1 R
VA: +3.2 D to +6.7 D

Big R trends in competitive states:

FL: +3.3 to +7.0 R (furthest right it's been since 1992)

The fact that Dems trended so much more than Republicans in battleground states doesn't surprise me at all. The tipping point state of WI (+2.8 R) still gives Republicans the upper hand, but in 2024 I expect the tipping point to be GA or NV, with a PVI of only +1 to +1.5 R.

If Florida returns to being competitive in a tied PV environment, it is theoretically possible for a Democrat to lose the popular vote by a point or so and still win the Electoral College.

OH and IA are now irrelevant, along with CO and VA. NM remains on the fringe, but is still competitive in a close national race.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I'm not really sure it's right to say WI is the tipping point, since Trump winning WI, AZ, and GA results in a 269-269 tie.  Really, both WI and PA are equally tipping points in this case, just like the median number in a list of ten numbers is equally the 5th and 6th number.

I'd also guess that while there is almost no chance Biden wins NC, there is a pretty good shot it also ends up within 1%.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'm not really sure it's right to say WI is the tipping point, since Trump winning WI, AZ, and GA results in a 269-269 tie.  Really, both WI and PA are equally tipping points in this case, just like the median number in a list of ten numbers is equally the 5th and 6th number.

I'd also guess that while there is almost no chance Biden wins NC, there is a pretty good shot it also ends up within 1%.

You're right about the tipping point. For some reason I forgot to give NE-02 to Biden.

I think you're right about NC, too. If Biden wins 55% of remaining ballots (and he should), that would put NC just barely within a 1% margin.  He would need 71% to win the state, but I don't see that happening.