Trump supporters: Where did Trump do better than you expected?
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  Trump supporters: Where did Trump do better than you expected?
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Author Topic: Trump supporters: Where did Trump do better than you expected?  (Read 461 times)
ProgressiveModerate
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« on: November 12, 2020, 11:10:23 AM »

Even though polls underestimated Trump again, many Trump supporters were still quite bullish on his chances. Where did the President have stronger performances than you thought?
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forsythvoter
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« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2020, 12:15:13 PM »
« Edited: November 12, 2020, 02:12:03 PM by forsythvoter »

Several state stand out for me:

1) FL - the Trump +3 result was surprising. Even though I was expecting a R swing in Miami-Dade, I was not expecting it to go all the way back to 2004 levels (53-46 Kerry). I also thought Palm Beach and Broward would offset some of that swing, but both counties swung R. The rest of the state performed pretty much about as I expected, with more D strength than I expected in Duval and the Panhandle counties.

2) OH - Biden got the big metro swings, but I also thought he would flip Trumbull and hold on to Mahoning. It looks like the auto belt counties and Appalachian counties swung even further R, which was surprising given that these trends didn't happen in next door PA and even WV swung D.

3) AR - I frankly thought Hillary had hit rock bottom in the state and that the trends in Little Rock, Bentonville and Fayetteville would cause the state to swing to Biden. All 3 trends happened, but the R swings in the Ozarks and Delta really surprised me. Wonder if Hillary had more popularity there than people assumed due to her time as first lady of the state.

4) MI / WI / PA - Biden's margins of victories in all 3 were lower than what I expected. Given a +4 national result, they aren't shocking though, which is why these are lower on the list. These results really make MN's result stand out too. I would have thought MN would be a 2 point race knowing the margins in the rust belt trio.

EDIT: I'm not a Trump supporter, sorry just read the title
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2020, 12:20:59 PM »

Florida and South Texas stand out as the obvious examples, and I didn't expect WI or PA to be within 1% when everything was all said and done.
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« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2020, 01:45:52 PM »

Not a Trump supporter, but he did a little better in Nevada, Arizona, and maybe Southern California than I expected.
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E-Dawg
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« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2020, 08:38:21 PM »

Flordia: Did not see the swing in Miami Dade county nor Trump winning the state by over 3 points. I excepted the race to be a dead heat that Trump would barely win by less than one point.

Ohio and Iowa: I expected Trump to win in these states easily, but I expected his margin to decrease a few points from 2016, when they essentially stayed the same. I was wrong that Trump's performance among WWC in these two states would decrease.

South Texas: The statewide margin was not unexpected, but the Pro-Trump swing in the Rio Grande Valley was absolutely astounding. If the Republican gains here hold, then that definitely sets Democratic hopes for Texas back a little.

Georgia was the only state Trump did worse than what I expected, I thought Trump would win it by a few points.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #5 on: November 13, 2020, 12:03:11 AM »

I did not expect him to get MN, NH, and ME by 7 points each
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