PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[xavier110]

The hand-wringing here over the last couple weeks is comical. Did people really expect Oz to enter October with just the 60% of GOP voters he was winning post primary?

[kwabbit]

This is a rather good strategy too. It's obviously not hard to say that "GOP candidate and Mastriano" are an extremist combination. I saw the Oz and Mastriano signs together on the highway today, and then I see this from Deluzio. They *all* are running together, according to the GOP. So a vote for whichever GOP candidate is a vote for basically everything Mastriano represents, at least in the GOP

https://twitter.com/ChrisForPA/status/1575273736202342400

This strategy honestly seems a little risky to me. Youngkin and Kemp are two examples of people that the left has recently turned into rockstars with the Republican base. In both cases, they could have otherwise had trouble appealing to at least part of the base, and in both cases the left inadvertently handed them conservative bona fides by repeatedly comparing them to Trump or something similar. The problem is that swing voters are not motivated by comparisons that are clearly not true (such as saying Youngkin is more dangerous than Trump), but it does potentially endear lukewarm partisans.

If it sounds like I’m suggesting a double standard because the right loves to do the same thing, that’s kind of the point. The left bases its loyalty on specific issues (you can even see it on this forum). Nobody is going to get up off the couch and go vote for Kyrsten Sinema (or fill in a moderate Dem) just because the right accuses her of being a Bernie Sanders fan. Republicans, on the other hand, are more generally concerned with politicians “standing up for my values” regardless of personal voting record or ideology (see Donald Trump). It’s very easy to see a small number of voters saying “I don’t trust Oz very much and he seems like a phony to me, but if he’s triggering the libs this much then he must be doing something right!”

I see what you're saying, but I don't think it's necessarily the same thing. This is also just aimed purely at those Shapiro/undecided voters who may be unsure in Senate. They likely don't have any love lost for Oz and probably lean Dem on many issues so it's just about showing them that if they were thinking about splitting their ticket, Oz is close to Mastriano. Which, Oz is already disliked, unlike Youngkin, and has similar views as well ("abortion is murder") so it's not as much of a stretch imo. Also, comparing Oz to the other person *on the same ticket* isn't necessarily the same as comparing them to Trump/outside GOP candidates.

Shapiro/undecided voters are not Lean Dem, that’s the thing. The large majority voted for Trump. You can’t be up by 15 in a swing state like PA without winning Trump voters. Actually getting these voters to vote D en masse is difficult.

They see a difference between Oz and Mastriano, that’s why there’s a widening gap between the candidates. Oz is a public figure, comparing to a skinhead like Mastriano probably won’t work. He had years on TV, in which he was clearly a political moderate. I don’t even know if he voted for Trump. If anything, telling everyone he’s actually far right might make him seem more authentic and end up backfiring.

[Calthrina950]

This is a rather good strategy too. It's obviously not hard to say that "GOP candidate and Mastriano" are an extremist combination. I saw the Oz and Mastriano signs together on the highway today, and then I see this from Deluzio. They *all* are running together, according to the GOP. So a vote for whichever GOP candidate is a vote for basically everything Mastriano represents, at least in the GOP

https://twitter.com/ChrisForPA/status/1575273736202342400

This strategy honestly seems a little risky to me. Youngkin and Kemp are two examples of people that the left has recently turned into rockstars with the Republican base. In both cases, they could have otherwise had trouble appealing to at least part of the base, and in both cases the left inadvertently handed them conservative bona fides by repeatedly comparing them to Trump or something similar. The problem is that swing voters are not motivated by comparisons that are clearly not true (such as saying Youngkin is more dangerous than Trump), but it does potentially endear lukewarm partisans.

If it sounds like I’m suggesting a double standard because the right loves to do the same thing, that’s kind of the point. The left bases its loyalty on specific issues (you can even see it on this forum). Nobody is going to get up off the couch and go vote for Kyrsten Sinema (or fill in a moderate Dem) just because the right accuses her of being a Bernie Sanders fan. Republicans, on the other hand, are more generally concerned with politicians “standing up for my values” regardless of personal voting record or ideology (see Donald Trump). It’s very easy to see a small number of voters saying “I don’t trust Oz very much and he seems like a phony to me, but if he’s triggering the libs this much then he must be doing something right!”

I see what you're saying, but I don't think it's necessarily the same thing. This is also just aimed purely at those Shapiro/undecided voters who may be unsure in Senate. They likely don't have any love lost for Oz and probably lean Dem on many issues so it's just about showing them that if they were thinking about splitting their ticket, Oz is close to Mastriano. Which, Oz is already disliked, unlike Youngkin, and has similar views as well ("abortion is murder") so it's not as much of a stretch imo. Also, comparing Oz to the other person *on the same ticket* isn't necessarily the same as comparing them to Trump/outside GOP candidates.

Neither Oz or Youngkin are viewed as ideologically extreme or as far-right by the general electorate. The main criticisms of Oz have been that he is a "flip-flopper" and a "carpetbagger". The Republican base didn't trust him for a long time because of these criticisms. But now, as the election nears and they become more alert to the necessity of regaining the Senate, they are rallying around Oz. It's also clear that Oz's attacks on Fetterman are having some impact.

[Skill and Chance]

Fetterman going all in on the crudite thing was really dumb.  No one cares outside of social media. 

[Calthrina950]

Fetterman going all in on the crudite thing was really dumb.  No one cares outside of social media. 

My opinion of the Fetterman campaign certainly has declined in recent weeks, and I'm starting to understand why Oz is gaining ground in the polls. Oz is a deeply flawed individual, but he certainly knows how to campaign.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Yeah, I always perceived Oz as more of a "moderate", I could care less about the carpetbagging claims. Mastriano seems to be the "extremist" to me. Of course, I want both to lose though.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yeah, I always perceived Oz as more of a "moderate", I could care less about the carpetbagging claims. Mastriano seems to be the "extremist" to me. Of course, I want both to lose though.

Oz is only being perceived that way because he has no core principles or political beliefs. He is an opportunist and that seems to be what the Fetterman campaign is trying to instill in Pennsylvania voters. Sure, he didn't attend the insurrection and doesn't want women to be jailed for abortions but he changes his tune to whichever audience he is talking to, and he shouldn't be trusted to be a Senator.

[Skill and Chance]

Yeah, I always perceived Oz as more of a "moderate", I could care less about the carpetbagging claims. Mastriano seems to be the "extremist" to me. Of course, I want both to lose though.

Oz is only being perceived that way because he has no core principles or political beliefs. He is an opportunist and that seems to be what the Fetterman campaign is trying to instill in Pennsylvania voters. Sure, he didn't attend the insurrection and doesn't want women to be jailed for abortions but he changes his tune to whichever audience he is talking to, and he shouldn't be trusted to be a Senator.

Yes, it's a bit like the old school Obama vs. Romney campaign.  I still think Fetterman can win and he might even be mildly favored if he can debate. 

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I always perceived Oz as more of a "moderate", I could care less about the carpetbagging claims. Mastriano seems to be the "extremist" to me. Of course, I want both to lose though.

Oz is only being perceived that way because he has no core principles or political beliefs. He is an opportunist and that seems to be what the Fetterman campaign is trying to instill in Pennsylvania voters. Sure, he didn't attend the insurrection and doesn't want women to be jailed for abortions but he changes his tune to whichever audience he is talking to, and he shouldn't be trusted to be a Senator.

This appears to basically be what their new message is for the most part, outside of tying Oz with Mastriano on things like abortion, etc.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/the_vello/status/1576918188989685760

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1576940104035323906

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The time for Fetterwoman to attack Oz on this was earlier this summer. Instead he resorted to the muh from "NJ" attack and allowed Oz to slowly build support in the last few months. Now he is struggling to find something that sticks. Maybe Fetterman's attack on Oz's product history would work if he wasn't the one getting a stroke from his diet, and a 60 year old Oz looks younger than him wasn't going around jogging as he often does. It's not the same as an obese Alex Jones selling supplements. Oz is a healthy individual, Fetterman is not.

[wbrocks67]

The dog story is back

https://twitter.com/LEBassett/status/1576992095897669633

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The dog story is back

https://twitter.com/RebeccaKKatz/status/1576992375070920705

There are so many skeletons in Oz's closet, it became more overcrowded than the California prison system.

[Green Line]

One campaign is talking about crime and the economy, the other spent the whole summer talking about New Jersey and vegetable trays.  Pretty easy to see why Fetterman is floundering.

[KaiserDave]

Dr. Oz literally killed puppies. Very bad!

[wbrocks67]

One campaign is talking about crime and the economy, the other spent the whole summer talking about New Jersey and vegetable trays.  Pretty easy to see why Fetterman is floundering.

And yet Dr. Oz has yet to lead a single poll and can barely get over 44%. But yes, Fetterman is the one floundering.

The copium from Rs about this race is a lot. But yes, continue to believe that's all that was happening all summer. There's a reason Oz has a -20 favorability rating.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

One campaign is talking about crime and the economy, the other spent the whole summer talking about New Jersey and vegetable trays.  Pretty easy to see why Fetterman is floundering.

And yet Dr. Oz has yet to lead a single poll and can barely get over 44%. But yes, Fetterman is the one floundering.

The copium from Rs about this race is a lot. But yes, continue to believe that's all that was happening all summer. There's a reason Oz has a -20 favorability rating.

In the 2016 election Toomey was @ 43% in the final RCP average

[wbrocks67]

One campaign is talking about crime and the economy, the other spent the whole summer talking about New Jersey and vegetable trays.  Pretty easy to see why Fetterman is floundering.

And yet Dr. Oz has yet to lead a single poll and can barely get over 44%. But yes, Fetterman is the one floundering.

The copium from Rs about this race is a lot. But yes, continue to believe that's all that was happening all summer. There's a reason Oz has a -20 favorability rating.

In the 2016 election Toomey was @ 43% in the final RCP average

Okay? Toomey still led in some polls and hit 45-47% in different ones.

Oz has hit 45% or over in only 3 polls all cycle.

[Green Line]

One campaign is talking about crime and the economy, the other spent the whole summer talking about New Jersey and vegetable trays.  Pretty easy to see why Fetterman is floundering.

And yet Dr. Oz has yet to lead a single poll and can barely get over 44%. But yes, Fetterman is the one floundering.

The copium from Rs about this race is a lot. But yes, continue to believe that's all that was happening all summer. There's a reason Oz has a -20 favorability rating.

floun·der·ing, floun·ders, 1. To move clumsily or with little progress

Whats copium.  Idk who's going to win the election.  Can't think of a better word for the Fetterman campaign though.  Very SAD to cough up such a big lead against a horrible candidate like Oz with -20 favorables.

[Calthrina950]

Two completely different narratives above: "Oz is a terrible candidate!" "Fetterman is a terrible candidate!" Partisans aren't going to win each other over. Independents and "less informed" voters will make the difference.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Two completely different narratives above: "Oz is a terrible candidate!" "Fetterman is a terrible candidate!" Partisans aren't going to win each other over. Independents and "less informed" voters will make the difference.

I guess I could be counted as a less-informed voter; I can't remember the last time I was genuinely undecided on a federal race with a month to go. 

Governor's race is much easier, though!

[Skill and Chance]

How strong is the evidence on the dog stuff?  That's the kind of scandal that could actually move the race if it's legit.  And this somehow feels even more like 2012 now. 

[It’s so Joever]

Why do people care so much about dogs? While nobody should vote for Oz because he is a clear fraud who would sell out America like he sold out his career and platform...what he did with dogs should not matter. I support animal testing for scientific advancement.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1576992422332174356

[It’s so Joever]

One campaign is talking about crime and the economy, the other spent the whole summer talking about New Jersey and vegetable trays.  Pretty easy to see why Fetterman is floundering.

Fetterman has talked plenty on the economy and crime lmao. It's just that no news station talks about it because the whole Crudite thing makes for better clickbait.