PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[soundchaser]

That supermarket ad is one of the most embarrassing missteps by a campaign in recent memory. Talk about falling right into the narrative set for you.

[MT Treasurer]

[soundchaser]

"I'm not a witch" also came to mind (although that race was arguably less winnable).

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

"I'm not a witch" also came to mind (although that race was arguably less winnable).

What are these from? I know Land was the 2014 Michigan nominee

[SnowLabrador]

It's hard for me to see Fetterman winning by more than 2-3 points, and I still think there's a good chance he comes up short. Oz is a terrible candidate, but the Land comparisons are ridiculous.

[Pink Panther]

"I'm not a witch" also came to mind (although that race was arguably less winnable).

What are these from? I know Land was the 2014 Michigan nominee

The "I'm not a witch" refers to Christine O' Donnell and an ad where she tries to disprove rumours that she practiced witchcraft. As you could guess, it bombed and became one of the most infamous ads in American History.

[soundchaser]

What are these from? I know Land was the 2014 Michigan nominee

Land's 2014 "Really?" ad was notoriously awful and probably cost her the race.

Christine O'Donnell decided to face accusations that she had dabbled in witchcraft as a teen head on. It didn't end well.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

What are these from? I know Land was the 2014 Michigan nominee

Land's 2014 "Really?" ad was notoriously awful and probably cost her the race.

Christine O'Donnell decided to face accusations that she had dabbled in witchcraft as a teen head on. It didn't end well.

who in their right mind would approve these ads

[wbrocks67]

It's hard for me to see Fetterman winning by more than 2-3 points, and I still think there's a good chance he comes up short. Oz is a terrible candidate, but the Land comparisons are ridiculous.

You really don't understand how bad this video is for Oz then.

[Xing]

There’s no way Fetterman wins by as much as Peters did in 2014, though it really does look like Oz could lose even in a great year for Republicans. Not moving this out of the Toss-Up column unless the state of the race doesn’t improve for Oz in October (which I think it will, at least a bit), but I didn’t imagine Oz would be doing this badly.

[Senator Incitatus]

Leave it to Atlas posters to wish-cast even in a race that's going well for them.

[wbrocks67]

There’s no way Fetterman wins by as much as Peters did in 2014, though it really does look like Oz could lose even in a great year for Republicans. Not moving this out of the Toss-Up column unless the state of the race doesn’t improve for Oz in October (which I think it will, at least a bit), but I didn’t imagine Oz would be doing this badly.

I'm genuinely curious though, other than some GOPers coming home to Oz, which I agree is likely, what else is likely to change for Oz's favor though that hasn't already?

Objectively, things have only gotten worse for him as time has gone on, so what is supposed to change between now and November?

My point is that things can always go either way bc anything can happen, but the deeper we get into midterm season, this excuse of "well things can always snap back for Rs!" gets less and less likely as we're now out 3 months from the primary itself and things have gotten worse, not better.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1559615464694861824

[Xing]

There’s no way Fetterman wins by as much as Peters did in 2014, though it really does look like Oz could lose even in a great year for Republicans. Not moving this out of the Toss-Up column unless the state of the race doesn’t improve for Oz in October (which I think it will, at least a bit), but I didn’t imagine Oz would be doing this badly.

I'm genuinely curious though, other than some GOPers coming home to Oz, which I agree is likely, what else is likely to change for Oz's favor though that hasn't already?

Objectively, things have only gotten worse for him as time has gone on, so what is supposed to change between now and November?

My point is that things can always go either way bc anything can happen, but the deeper we get into midterm season, this excuse of "well things can always snap back for Rs!" gets less and less likely as we're now out 3 months from the primary itself and things have gotten worse, not better.

I’m guessing that some voters who don’t like Oz will hold their nose and vote for him to give Republicans the Senate. Not saying it’ll be enough for him to win, but I think a big margin for Fetterman just isn’t that realistic in this environment, and that this race is probably going to end up being at least somewhat close.

[wbrocks67]

There’s no way Fetterman wins by as much as Peters did in 2014, though it really does look like Oz could lose even in a great year for Republicans. Not moving this out of the Toss-Up column unless the state of the race doesn’t improve for Oz in October (which I think it will, at least a bit), but I didn’t imagine Oz would be doing this badly.

I'm genuinely curious though, other than some GOPers coming home to Oz, which I agree is likely, what else is likely to change for Oz's favor though that hasn't already?

Objectively, things have only gotten worse for him as time has gone on, so what is supposed to change between now and November?

My point is that things can always go either way bc anything can happen, but the deeper we get into midterm season, this excuse of "well things can always snap back for Rs!" gets less and less likely as we're now out 3 months from the primary itself and things have gotten worse, not better.

I’m guessing that some voters who don’t like Oz will hold their nose and vote for him to give Republicans the Senate. Not saying it’ll be enough for him to win, but I think a big margin for Fetterman just isn’t that realistic in this environment, and that this race is probably going to end up being at least somewhat close.

What is "this environment" though? We're looking at a neutral environment as of right now, so I mean I'm not saying I expect Fetterman to win by 10, but I don't think we can use the 'environment' argument as much as maybe two months ago given that the environment itself is pretty close to = for both sides, give just how much the GOP is imploding upon itself with better news for Ds in different areas

[Xing]

There’s no way Fetterman wins by as much as Peters did in 2014, though it really does look like Oz could lose even in a great year for Republicans. Not moving this out of the Toss-Up column unless the state of the race doesn’t improve for Oz in October (which I think it will, at least a bit), but I didn’t imagine Oz would be doing this badly.

I'm genuinely curious though, other than some GOPers coming home to Oz, which I agree is likely, what else is likely to change for Oz's favor though that hasn't already?

Objectively, things have only gotten worse for him as time has gone on, so what is supposed to change between now and November?

My point is that things can always go either way bc anything can happen, but the deeper we get into midterm season, this excuse of "well things can always snap back for Rs!" gets less and less likely as we're now out 3 months from the primary itself and things have gotten worse, not better.

I’m guessing that some voters who don’t like Oz will hold their nose and vote for him to give Republicans the Senate. Not saying it’ll be enough for him to win, but I think a big margin for Fetterman just isn’t that realistic in this environment, and that this race is probably going to end up being at least somewhat close.

What is "this environment" though? We're looking at a neutral environment as of right now, so I mean I'm not saying I expect Fetterman to win by 10, but I don't think we can use the 'environment' argument as much as maybe two months ago given that the environment itself is pretty close to = for both sides, give just how much the GOP is imploding upon itself with better news for Ds in different areas

I’m skeptical that the environment will be neutral in November. However, even assuming an even GCB, I’d expect Republicans to narrowly win a generic D vs. R race. Oz seems set to underperform a generic R by several points, but to me, that would imply a 3, maybe 4-point win for Fetterman rather than a mid-high single digit win.

[MT Treasurer]

You are missing the point — I didn’t mean to imply that Fetterman will win by a margin comparable to Peters's (although I definitely disagree with the idea that this race is guaranteed to be close and that Oz will remain in contention no matter what), but to add to what soundchaser/other posters already alluded to: When you really wish to combat a powerful narrative like this, it’s do or die and you absolutely have to know what you’re doing while being aware of the risk. If you don’t, chances are that your attempt will absolutely blow up in your face and reinforce your opponent's narrative more than any of your opponent's ads could have done. Voters don’t blindly trust negative ads, but you can’t explain away your own actions/words.

There’s a reason why many campaigns steer clear of anything which would even entertain their opponent's narrative (even when there might be an opportunity to weaken/lay it to rest, the risks are simply too high) and instead try to create a more powerful narrative in the hope that theirs wins out. In Oz's case, this should be easy — focus on Fetterman being out of touch with PA on the issues and a vote for Biden/Sanders. Humanizing Oz would be a welcome byproduct along the way and could be done - for instance - by articulating his own positions/vision, but (a) he almost never does that, and (b) it should definitely not be the main focus of their campaign, especially of one this clumsy. This should be all about nationalization but it’s clearly turned into an absolute meme-tier campaign.

[wbrocks67]

You are missing the point — I didn’t mean to imply that Fetterman will win by a margin comparable to Peters's (although I definitely disagree with the idea that this race is guaranteed to be close and that Oz will remain in contention no matter what), but to add to what soundchaser/other posters already alluded to: When you really wish to combat a powerful narrative like this, it’s do or die and you absolutely have to know what you’re doing while being aware of the risk. If you don’t, chances are that your attempt will absolutely blow up in your face and reinforce your opponent's narrative more than any of your opponent's ads could have done. Voters don’t blindly trust negative ads, but you can’t explain away your own actions/words.

There’s a reason why many campaigns steer clear of anything which would even entertain their opponent's narrative (even when there might be an opportunity to weaken/lay it to rest, the risks are simply too high) and instead try to create a more powerful narrative in the hope that theirs wins out. In Oz's case, this should be easy — focus on Fetterman being out of touch with PA on the issues and a vote for Biden/Sanders. Humanizing Oz would be a welcome byproduct along the way and could be done - for instance - by articulating his own positions/vision, but (a) he almost never does that, and (b) it should definitely not be the main focus of their campaign, especially of one this clumsy. This should be all about nationalization but it’s clearly turned into an absolute meme-tier campaign.

Not just a meme-tier campaign, but this is probably the most local campaign in the country. At least the most competitive one. This race is all about PA at the moment. Not just Oz's NJ ties, but this video - Oz filmed it a local PA supermarket chain and part of the reason why it's so bad for him is that it reinforces not only the narrative that he's out of touch, but that he is not a Pennsylvanian, and does not care to be one either. He couldn't even be bothered to film this video a second time to get the damn store name correct, which to me purposely encapsulates his total non-care about Pennsylvania. He's set himself up nearly every step of the way.

If you don't even care to get the name of a local supermarket chain right, why should Pennsylvanians think you would care about them and our state? It's a metaphor more than anything.

At this point, I don't see how Oz genuinely can argue that Fetterman is the one "out of touch" with Pennsylvania.

[The Dowager Mod]

[free my dawg]

It's just amazing stuff. I couldn't even imagine the reaction if some carpetbagger came into NH or MA and couldn't even figure out what Market Basket was.

[wbrocks67]

It's just amazing stuff. I couldn't even imagine the reaction if some carpetbagger came into NH or MA and couldn't even figure out what Market Basket was.

It's the type of stuff that only resonates with people who are living here, something that national DC pundits may not get. But people locally, like you talked about in NH or MA, it's a big deal. But given that PA is the 4th in the country for people who still live here that were born here, there is a lot of state pride no matter who you are (D or R). It was bad enough that Oz thought he could swoop in from another state and buy the seat, but then not even bothering to try and get simple local PA-isms right is just... another level. Totally egregious.

This tweet was illuminating too as to who is helping him run this "campaign":

https://twitter.com/85mf/status/1559213857062666249

[Stockdale for Veep]

"It works on so many levels!"

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1559648577420509184

[Minnesota Mike]

On the plus side I now know what "crudité" is. Never to old to learn something new.

[wbrocks67]

Oz is spiraling

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1559680906587168769