PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz
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  PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #25 on: November 12, 2020, 12:18:55 PM »

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.
Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

The GOP isn't going back to 2014, that is long past
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #26 on: November 12, 2020, 12:23:15 PM »

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.
Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

The GOP isn't going back to 2014, that is long past
How do you know that? Do you have a Crystal Ball or something? It's more likely than not that 2022 will be the year of the Establishment in BOTH PARTIES given that Trump is gone and AOC & her cohorts hurt Democrats a lot this year by failing to expand their House Majority.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #27 on: November 12, 2020, 12:24:22 PM »

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.
Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

The GOP isn't going back to 2014, that is long past
How do you know that? Do you have a Crystal Ball or something? It's more likely than not that 2022 will be the year of the Establishment in BOTH PARTIES given that Trump is gone and AOC & her cohorts hurt Democrats a lot this year by failing to expand their House Majority.
If you think the GOP is going back to the Jeb!/Mitt/Paul Ryan years, I think you're very wrong.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #28 on: November 12, 2020, 12:34:54 PM »

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.
Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

The GOP isn't going back to 2014, that is long past
How do you know that? Do you have a Crystal Ball or something? It's more likely than not that 2022 will be the year of the Establishment in BOTH PARTIES given that Trump is gone and AOC & her cohorts hurt Democrats a lot this year by failing to expand their House Majority.
If you think the GOP is going back to the Jeb!/Mitt/Paul Ryan years, I think you're very wrong.
I am not saying that BUT McConnell will be making sure he gets the most electable Candidates running for Senate in 2022 especially with Rick Scott now being the new Chairman of the NRSC.

Remember: McConnell's Majority PAC was dumping a lot of $$$$ to make sure Kobach was defeated in the KS-SEN GOP Primary this year. This will happen all over the Country in 2022 methinks!

PA GOP has a very thin bench. Who's gonna challenge Fitzpatrick if he runs? Tell me!
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #29 on: November 12, 2020, 12:42:11 PM »

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.
Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

The GOP isn't going back to 2014, that is long past
How do you know that? Do you have a Crystal Ball or something? It's more likely than not that 2022 will be the year of the Establishment in BOTH PARTIES given that Trump is gone and AOC & her cohorts hurt Democrats a lot this year by failing to expand their House Majority.
If you think the GOP is going back to the Jeb!/Mitt/Paul Ryan years, I think you're very wrong.
I am not saying that BUT McConnell will be making sure he gets the most electable Candidates running for Senate in 2022 especially with Rick Scott now being the new Chairman of the NRSC.

Remember: McConnell's Majority PAC was dumping a lot of $$$$ to make sure Kobach was defeated in the KS-SEN GOP Primary this year. This will happen all over the Country in 2022 methinks!

PA GOP has a very thin bench. Who's gonna challenge Fitzpatrick if he runs? Tell me!

I'm not saying that the PA GOP is going to nominate a QAnon acolyte. They very well might, but it's unlikely. But Fitzpatrick is much to the left of a Roger Marshall on key wedge issues for the GOP base. Fitzpatrick is pro gun control, pro-DACA, and at least more anti-Trump than the average Republican.

These are not positions that will be tenable in a Republican primary, especially in a year where Republican enthusiasm is probable to be higher than average.

I don't know who the GOP will nominate, but I doubt Fitzpatrick even runs.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #30 on: November 12, 2020, 12:50:16 PM »

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.
Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

The GOP isn't going back to 2014, that is long past
How do you know that? Do you have a Crystal Ball or something? It's more likely than not that 2022 will be the year of the Establishment in BOTH PARTIES given that Trump is gone and AOC & her cohorts hurt Democrats a lot this year by failing to expand their House Majority.
If you think the GOP is going back to the Jeb!/Mitt/Paul Ryan years, I think you're very wrong.
I am not saying that BUT McConnell will be making sure he gets the most electable Candidates running for Senate in 2022 especially with Rick Scott now being the new Chairman of the NRSC.

Remember: McConnell's Majority PAC was dumping a lot of $$$$ to make sure Kobach was defeated in the KS-SEN GOP Primary this year. This will happen all over the Country in 2022 methinks!

PA GOP has a very thin bench. Who's gonna challenge Fitzpatrick if he runs? Tell me!

I'm not saying that the PA GOP is going to nominate a QAnon acolyte. They very well might, but it's unlikely. But Fitzpatrick is much to the left of a Roger Marshall on key wedge issues for the GOP base. Fitzpatrick is pro gun control, pro-DACA, and at least more anti-Trump than the average Republican.

These are not positions that will be tenable in a Republican primary, especially in a year where Republican enthusiasm is probable to be higher than average.

I don't know who the GOP will nominate, but I doubt Fitzpatrick even runs.
Why? Fitzpatrick must be tired having to hang on for dear life every two years to keep his House Seat. He even might be redistricted out of it. He's the only one who has a reasonable chance at least saving the Seat and force D's to spent money in it.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #31 on: November 12, 2020, 12:51:11 PM »

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.
Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

The GOP isn't going back to 2014, that is long past
How do you know that? Do you have a Crystal Ball or something? It's more likely than not that 2022 will be the year of the Establishment in BOTH PARTIES given that Trump is gone and AOC & her cohorts hurt Democrats a lot this year by failing to expand their House Majority.
If you think the GOP is going back to the Jeb!/Mitt/Paul Ryan years, I think you're very wrong.
I am not saying that BUT McConnell will be making sure he gets the most electable Candidates running for Senate in 2022 especially with Rick Scott now being the new Chairman of the NRSC.

Remember: McConnell's Majority PAC was dumping a lot of $$$$ to make sure Kobach was defeated in the KS-SEN GOP Primary this year. This will happen all over the Country in 2022 methinks!

PA GOP has a very thin bench. Who's gonna challenge Fitzpatrick if he runs? Tell me!

I'm not saying that the PA GOP is going to nominate a QAnon acolyte. They very well might, but it's unlikely. But Fitzpatrick is much to the left of a Roger Marshall on key wedge issues for the GOP base. Fitzpatrick is pro gun control, pro-DACA, and at least more anti-Trump than the average Republican.

These are not positions that will be tenable in a Republican primary, especially in a year where Republican enthusiasm is probable to be higher than average.

I don't know who the GOP will nominate, but I doubt Fitzpatrick even runs.
Why? Fitzpatrick must be tired having to hang on for dear life every two years to keep his House Seat. He even might be redistricted out of it. He's the only one who has a reasonable chance at least saving the Seat and force D's to spent money in it.

He just won handily. I expect him to have no issue winning reelection in 2022 or 2024.
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« Reply #32 on: November 12, 2020, 12:51:24 PM »

I'm not sure McConnell would want to recruit Fitzpatrick given his stance on the ACA.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #33 on: November 12, 2020, 12:57:26 PM »

I'm not sure McConnell would want to recruit Fitzpatrick given his stance on the ACA.
Who cares? Once the SCOTUS rules on it, it will be in the rear-view mirror! ACA won't be an issue in 2022 at all.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #34 on: November 12, 2020, 12:57:59 PM »

I'm not sure McConnell would want to recruit Fitzpatrick given his stance on the ACA.
Who cares? Once the SCOTUS rules on it, it will be in the rear-view mirror! ACA won't be an issue in 2022 at all.

SCOTUS isn't striking down ACA
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ChiefFireWaterMike
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« Reply #35 on: November 12, 2020, 01:48:06 PM »

I'm not sure McConnell would want to recruit Fitzpatrick given his stance on the ACA.
Who cares? Once the SCOTUS rules on it, it will be in the rear-view mirror! ACA won't be an issue in 2022 at all.

SCOTUS isn't striking down ACA
However they rule is a boon to the GOP, gets the issue out of politics and peoples minds thankfully. Same thing happened with gay marriage, the SCOTUS saved the GOP on the issue.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #36 on: November 12, 2020, 01:56:14 PM »

I'm not sure McConnell would want to recruit Fitzpatrick given his stance on the ACA.
Who cares? Once the SCOTUS rules on it, it will be in the rear-view mirror! ACA won't be an issue in 2022 at all.

SCOTUS isn't striking down ACA
However they rule is a boon to the GOP, gets the issue out of politics and peoples minds thankfully. Same thing happened with gay marriage, the SCOTUS saved the GOP on the issue.
If they do strike down ACA...that’s not good at all for the GOP
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #37 on: November 12, 2020, 02:10:46 PM »

I'm not sure McConnell would want to recruit Fitzpatrick given his stance on the ACA.
Who cares? Once the SCOTUS rules on it, it will be in the rear-view mirror! ACA won't be an issue in 2022 at all.

SCOTUS isn't striking down ACA
However they rule is a boon to the GOP, gets the issue out of politics and peoples minds thankfully. Same thing happened with gay marriage, the SCOTUS saved the GOP on the issue.
If they do strike down ACA...that’s not good at all for the GOP

Well, COVID was supposed to be horrible for the GOP, and yet it wasn't.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #38 on: November 12, 2020, 02:14:30 PM »

I'm not sure McConnell would want to recruit Fitzpatrick given his stance on the ACA.
Who cares? Once the SCOTUS rules on it, it will be in the rear-view mirror! ACA won't be an issue in 2022 at all.

SCOTUS isn't striking down ACA
However they rule is a boon to the GOP, gets the issue out of politics and peoples minds thankfully. Same thing happened with gay marriage, the SCOTUS saved the GOP on the issue.

I they rule in favor I agree.  If they rule against it, it brings the health care issue back to the forefront and makes it a huge issue in the midterms.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #39 on: November 12, 2020, 02:18:07 PM »

I could easily see a Lamb vs. Fetterman primary on the Democratic see. Given how narrowly Lamb survived this year, he may not make it in 2022, even if this isn't a 2010 style midterm. Going for higher office that's more winnable may be the better option. Fetterman will definitely run for either senate or governor. Shapiro could go for latter as well.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #40 on: November 12, 2020, 02:18:50 PM »

I'm not sure McConnell would want to recruit Fitzpatrick given his stance on the ACA.
Who cares? Once the SCOTUS rules on it, it will be in the rear-view mirror! ACA won't be an issue in 2022 at all.

If the SCOTUS rules that it is not unconstitutional (which is fundamentally different from ruling that banning gay marriage is unconstitutional), McConnell will probably begin to pursue the skinny repeal route again. He cares much more about destroying the welfare state than successfully waging a culture war.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #41 on: November 12, 2020, 02:37:36 PM »

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.
Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

McConnell, Gardner, and Tillis are all pretty conservative. Fitzpatrick not so much.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #42 on: November 12, 2020, 03:15:40 PM »

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.
Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

The GOP isn't going back to 2014, that is long past
How do you know that? Do you have a Crystal Ball or something? It's more likely than not that 2022 will be the year of the Establishment in BOTH PARTIES given that Trump is gone and AOC & her cohorts hurt Democrats a lot this year by failing to expand their House Majority.
If you think the GOP is going back to the Jeb!/Mitt/Paul Ryan years, I think you're very wrong.
I am not saying that BUT McConnell will be making sure he gets the most electable Candidates running for Senate in 2022 especially with Rick Scott now being the new Chairman of the NRSC.

Remember: McConnell's Majority PAC was dumping a lot of $$$$ to make sure Kobach was defeated in the KS-SEN GOP Primary this year. This will happen all over the Country in 2022 methinks!

PA GOP has a very thin bench. Who's gonna challenge Fitzpatrick if he runs? Tell me!

I'm not saying that the PA GOP is going to nominate a QAnon acolyte. They very well might, but it's unlikely. But Fitzpatrick is much to the left of a Roger Marshall on key wedge issues for the GOP base. Fitzpatrick is pro gun control, pro-DACA, and at least more anti-Trump than the average Republican.

These are not positions that will be tenable in a Republican primary, especially in a year where Republican enthusiasm is probable to be higher than average.

I don't know who the GOP will nominate, but I doubt Fitzpatrick even runs.

How about Reschenthaler?
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #43 on: November 12, 2020, 03:22:09 PM »

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.
Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

McConnell, Gardner, and Tillis are all pretty conservative. Fitzpatrick not so much.
Exactly. While Gardner and Tillis are far more manageable than Akin, Buck, or Moore types, they haven’t done anything really to turn the base sharply against them in a primary

As for Reschenthaler, he is a good choice, but unless R turnout is very good, I think Shapiro beats him
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #44 on: November 12, 2020, 03:26:18 PM »

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.
Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

McConnell, Gardner, and Tillis are all pretty conservative. Fitzpatrick not so much.
Exactly. While Gardner and Tillis are far more manageable than Akin, Buck, or Moore types, they haven’t done anything really to turn the base sharply against them in a primary

As for Reschenthaler, he is a good choice, but unless R turnout is very good, I think Shapiro beats him

Isn't Shapiro running for governor? Also, it's a Biden midterm so of course the GOP will have a good chance here.
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S019
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« Reply #45 on: November 12, 2020, 03:36:05 PM »

I am honestly not convinced that Fetterman would be that strong, and his views are quite to the left, and if the GOP nominates someone like Fitzpatrick, I could easily see him struggle in the suburbs. We also don't know much about how viable Fetterman is statewide, but given he has been quite weak in the two primaries that he has ran in, I'm not even convinced he could win a primary. Especially if another western PA politician (such as Lamb) runs in that same primary.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #46 on: November 12, 2020, 03:43:35 PM »

I am honestly not convinced that Fetterman would be that strong, and his views are quite to the left, and if the GOP nominates someone like Fitzpatrick, I could easily see him struggle in the suburbs. We also don't know much about how viable Fetterman is statewide, but given he has been quite weak in the two primaries that he has ran in, I'm not even convinced he could win a primary. Especially if another western PA politician (such as Lamb) runs in that same primary.

He unseated an incumbent in his 2018 primary. That's a weak performance? Huh

Also, there is a 0% chance the PAGOP nominates Fitzpatrick, and you guys are more than welcome to clown on me if I get proven wrong; he would immediately be tarred as a RINO and would not make it through the primaries. I truly hope that Lamb's recent antics have made him damaged goods, as well, but I can't be sure.
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S019
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« Reply #47 on: November 12, 2020, 03:44:25 PM »

I am honestly not convinced that Fetterman would be that strong, and his views are quite to the left, and if the GOP nominates someone like Fitzpatrick, I could easily see him struggle in the suburbs. We also don't know much about how viable Fetterman is statewide, but given he has been quite weak in the two primaries that he has ran in, I'm not even convinced he could win a primary. Especially if another western PA politician (such as Lamb) runs in that same primary.

He unseated an incumbent in his 2018 primary. That's a weak performance? Huh

Also, there is a 0% chance the PAGOP nominates Fitzpatrick, and you guys are more than welcome to clown on me if I get proven wrong; he would immediately be tarred as a RINO and would not make it through the primaries. I truly hope that Lamb's recent antics have made him damaged goods, as well, but I can't be sure.

With around 30% of the vote and him being the only candidate from western PA, while everyone else was from the east and splitting the votes there
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #48 on: November 12, 2020, 06:48:52 PM »

You guys are so tiring with this shoddy broad brushed analysis.

1. Yes we are not going back to Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush, secure borders and some level of trade skepticism are a given but their is a wide gulf between that statement and saying that only Don Jr can get nominated. There will be a return to a greater level of professionalism and competence. Saying these things, saying that neoliberal GOP is dead and saying their will be a greater establishment influence are not incompatible.

2. All this talk of bench this and bench that, nobody is going to care they their is a super sexy, super special, super awesome bench of unbeatable titans. The courtyard is filled with the corpses of many D's political careers after this forum dubbed them as amazeballs candidates. There are plenty of GOP candidates in this state beyond just Fitzpatrick, especially McSwain and Defoor.
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Not Me, Us
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« Reply #49 on: November 12, 2020, 07:39:58 PM »

You guys are so tiring with this shoddy broad brushed analysis.

1. Yes we are not going back to Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush, secure borders and some level of trade skepticism are a given but their is a wide gulf between that statement and saying that only Don Jr can get nominated. There will be a return to a greater level of professionalism and competence. Saying these things, saying that neoliberal GOP is dead and saying their will be a greater establishment influence are not incompatible.

2. All this talk of bench this and bench that, nobody is going to care they their is a super sexy, super special, super awesome bench of unbeatable titans. The courtyard is filled with the corpses of many D's political careers after this forum dubbed them as amazeballs candidates. There are plenty of GOP candidates in this state beyond just Fitzpatrick, especially McSwain and Defoor.

William McSwain is a total joke. I agree with you about DeFoor though, he has a real future.
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