PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[lfromnj]

Seriously, Atlas. A US House member representing a District with strong downballot Democratic leanings who underperformed Biden while running against a man who would then lose custody of their kids over domestic violence issues is not more electable than a sitting statewide official who was part of a ticket that won statewide in a landslide that was the biggest Dem win in the state in its entire decade. This aint hard.

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/04/21/pennsylvanias-17th-congressional-district-a-sociocultural-and-political-analysis/
It's pretty clear PA 17 is more just a wtf type district than anything else.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Mayor Kenney endorsing Lamb is saying something about Fetterman's prowess in this part of the state.

[free my dawg]

- There was no way for anyone to have known about the stuff with Parnell until it came out in court in 2021, so attacking Lamb for "failing to capitalize on that knowledge" is pretty silly.  There was no knowledge to capitalize on in 2020.

The protective orders that had been known beforehand? These things were happening in 2017 and 2018.

- If we're being honest, Fetterman had nothing to do with Wolf's 2018 victory and only won the primary for LG b/c he was the only serious non-Philly/Philly burbs candidate in a clown car primary jam-packed with them.  Fetterman has never won an even remotely competitive GE in his own right or even run in one.  Wolf won because he was a popular Democratic Governor running for reelection in a Democratic wave year against an extremely weak opponent who received little help from national Republicans.

A fair criticism - I wouldn't say "only won", but I've been on the record saying that we should take his primary win with a grain of salt.

- Lamb essentially matched Biden's performance in a year where most congressional Democrats under-performed him and has won multiple competitive races in tough districts, dramatically over-performing in two of those three races.

- Neither of Lamb's districts were strongly Democratic-leaning seats.  The first one was a Safe Republican district where Democrats had no business being even remotely competitive during even a wave election.  The second was still a Republican-leaning district where he unseated an incumbent in a blowout victory and then won a tough reelection race in a district with a Republican PVI.

And John Ossoff lost a Clinton-leaning House district in a special to a perennial candidate. I'm more concerned about Lamb's performance now.

And I see a candidate who's sleepwalking and spending his time ranting at critical journalists and throwing shade on Twitter.

- Fetterman has never even run in a competitive GE before.

I don't think anyone's going to argue this.

- Fetterman has been running an extremely lazy, Twitter-oriented campaign and seems to think he's entitled to the seat.  Whatever you think of Lamb's campaign, behaving like you're above putting in the work because you deserve a coronation is not a winning strategy.  Even if you support Fetterman, he needed to start taking this seriously yesterday.

- The shotgun incident is going to be a major problem.  Honestly, this reminds me of the Cal Sextingham incident where most red-avatars were in denial about the fact that the scandal was clearly going to cause a lot of damage.  It's gonna be hard enough to get folks to turnout without nominating a guy who chased an unarmed black man around with a shotgun.

These are fair points. I trust people like R2D2 and KhanOfKhans on it - they have their boots on the ground and I'm just looking over. I hope Fetterman gets his sh*t together soon, especially in time for the general. But overall it's a risk I'm willing to take.

As for the shotgun incident, I've always had a very reasonable take on it. It was unconscionable, revolting, and awful. I don't blame you if you're black and it gives you pause. I also recognize that this incident was 9 years ago, believe he has changed, and that he has done a lot of good for the community. At the same time, his statement doesn't come off like he's admitting he's wrong. An apology would go a long way.

- There is no reason whatsoever to believe Fetterman would perform any better than Generic D with any group of voters.  The most progressive candidate can also be the most electable candidate.  Look at Sherrod Brown.  IIRC Cartwright is fairly progressive and I still think he'd be a much stronger candidate than Lamb.

That's more because of long-standing local connections. I hope Fetterman has built a lot of them in the Pittsburgh area. I think image plays a lot and his image can really help.

I still think Lamb is a stronger candidate than Kenyatta, but at least there's an argument to be made for Kenyatta.  He's a dynamic, exciting candidate who - at least from the admittedly little I've read - seems to be willing to work his a** off to win.  And if you said to me "Kenyatta can pull this off," I'd say "I'm not convinced he can go the distance in this environment, but he might have a path and I'd love to be wrong."  I don't think that would happen and he could even under-perform statewide, but it's possible to envision a scenario where he wins.  Lamb can win too, although he obviously has a different path.  Idk if Lamb or Kenyatta would win, but what I do know is that assuming LARPing WWC folks while running a lazy, Twitter-focused campaign is not a winning strategy.

Arkoosh is just a generic D, so at this point, we should either go with Kenyatta in hopes of generating high enough base turnout to beat the environment or go with Lamb and hope he can run far enough ahead of Generic D to carry the day.     

I agree with your points on Kenyatta. I've always defended him, even when the Berners attacked him for his Biden endorsement and past tweets. I'm more concerned about your record and your policy beliefs, I'm concerned about your policies. Malcolm Kenyatta may have a different way of getting there than I do, but he wants to get there and he'll work his ass off to do it. You don't rise up from Philly state representative to 15% accidentally, and part of me is starting to believe he's the most electable candidate in the race.

I don't know if Fetterman is going to win. But one thing I do know is that Conor Lamb has shown a lot of red flags not only ideologically, but in practice. Of course, there's still 4 more months in the campaign and plenty of time to turn it around. For all we know, those Philly endorsements may put him over the top. If he wins, I'd love for him to be a reliable vote like a Bennet or a Kaine, but I think his ceiling is Warner/Shaheen.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Tough look for Fetterman:

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/john-fetterman-2022-senate-race-black-clergy-20220125.html&outputType=app-web-view

Fetterman’s campaign said his responsibilities presiding over the Senate on their first day of the 2022 session “made his attendance literally impossible.” The state constitution has provisions for the Senate President Pro Tempore to lead the chamber when the lieutenant governor is absent, and Fetterman has missed sessions before, though not frequently.

The Senate session in Harrisburg ended at 4:50 p.m. on Jan. 18, the day of the forum. The event in Philadelphia, roughly two hours away by car, began at 7 p.m.

In a letter Fetterman sent the clergy before the event, he apologized for missing it, said he hoped to speak with them another time, and highlighted some of the work he has done on economic inequality, criminal justice, and voting rights. “I understand how important the forum is,” he wrote, “and I very much wish that I could be there.” Fetterman also met last year with the host church’s pastor Alyn Waller, the campaign said

Fetterman’s campaign also canceled on a December forum organized by the group Indivisible Narberth and Beyond, which said his campaign hasn’t responded to requests to reschedule. In Western Pennsylvania, Progress PA, a coalition of progressive groups, is struggling to schedule him for a candidate event.

“We’ve reached out several times and it does not appear he’s available,” said Stacey Vernallis, a co-lead of Progress PA. “This is what democracy is at its finest — bringing candidates to the voters.”

Fetterman’s public events are often shared with the news media only after they’ve occurred. Multiple requests by Inquirer reporters to join him on the campaign trail have gone unanswered.

Nancy Kleinberg, a fundraiser and organizer in Montgomery County, said Fetterman backed out of a call with the Indivisible Narberth group and never responded to four attempts to reschedule. She’d planned to ask about the jogger incident. U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb (D., Pa.), Kenyatta, and Arkoosh all participated.

Tracy Baton, a Democratic activist in Western Pennsylvania, said even progressive voters from Fetterman’s part of the state have found him hard to reach.

“It’s not just that he doesn’t want to answer questions about specific issues right now, but he doesn’t feel he has to answer questions for the voters, period,” Baton said. “And that’s really problematic to me.”

[SnowLabrador]

It doesn't matter. No Democrat is winning this race, this year.

[free my dawg]

Okay this is legitimately concerning. Maybe Kenyatta is the most electable candidate after all.

[Calthrina950]

Tough look for Fetterman:

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/john-fetterman-2022-senate-race-black-clergy-20220125.html&outputType=app-web-view

Fetterman’s campaign said his responsibilities presiding over the Senate on their first day of the 2022 session “made his attendance literally impossible.” The state constitution has provisions for the Senate President Pro Tempore to lead the chamber when the lieutenant governor is absent, and Fetterman has missed sessions before, though not frequently.

The Senate session in Harrisburg ended at 4:50 p.m. on Jan. 18, the day of the forum. The event in Philadelphia, roughly two hours away by car, began at 7 p.m.

In a letter Fetterman sent the clergy before the event, he apologized for missing it, said he hoped to speak with them another time, and highlighted some of the work he has done on economic inequality, criminal justice, and voting rights. “I understand how important the forum is,” he wrote, “and I very much wish that I could be there.” Fetterman also met last year with the host church’s pastor Alyn Waller, the campaign said

Fetterman’s campaign also canceled on a December forum organized by the group Indivisible Narberth and Beyond, which said his campaign hasn’t responded to requests to reschedule. In Western Pennsylvania, Progress PA, a coalition of progressive groups, is struggling to schedule him for a candidate event.

“We’ve reached out several times and it does not appear he’s available,” said Stacey Vernallis, a co-lead of Progress PA. “This is what democracy is at its finest — bringing candidates to the voters.”

Fetterman’s public events are often shared with the news media only after they’ve occurred. Multiple requests by Inquirer reporters to join him on the campaign trail have gone unanswered.

Nancy Kleinberg, a fundraiser and organizer in Montgomery County, said Fetterman backed out of a call with the Indivisible Narberth group and never responded to four attempts to reschedule. She’d planned to ask about the jogger incident. U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb (D., Pa.), Kenyatta, and Arkoosh all participated.

Tracy Baton, a Democratic activist in Western Pennsylvania, said even progressive voters from Fetterman’s part of the state have found him hard to reach.

“It’s not just that he doesn’t want to answer questions about specific issues right now, but he doesn’t feel he has to answer questions for the voters, period,” Baton said. “And that’s really problematic to me.”

Democrats would be advised to avoid both Lamb and Fetterman, and to nominate someone like Arkoosh or Kenyatta. They're not favorites to win this race, given the national political environment, so they ought to go for a candidate who actually campaigns and who holds views that are in alignment with the base.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

One very telling fact about Fetterman is the number of Senate democrat endorsements he's gotten.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Okay this is legitimately concerning. Maybe Kenyatta is the most electable candidate after all.

Lol no he's not

[wbrocks67]

I knew this thread was completely derailed when we were still talking about Lamb "underperforming" Biden

[Xing]

If people prefer Lamb ideologically, that's fine, but let's not get bogged down by conversations of "electability." Any Democrat is going to have a hard time in this race, and ideology is not going to be a factor at all.

[free my dawg]

Okay this is legitimately concerning. Maybe Kenyatta is the most electable candidate after all.

Lol no he's not

understandable, thank you for setting me on the right path again

[😥]

https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1486444376997904400?t=bFQgsKUL0ZZSJMs...

[S019]

Idk if Szymanski has some insider knowledge, but it seems he may have misinterpreted some news we got today. Three PA House Dems did indeed endorse Lamb, however these were State House Dems, perhaps a case of reading the headline and not the context, or they all plan on doing so, with Arkoosh when she drops out. I have seen no evidence of Houlahan or Dean endorsing Lamb though.

Yep it seems he misinterpreted this: https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1486417526473072647?cxt=HHwWjoC91a236...

[Grumpier Than Thou]

https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1486444376997904400?t=bFQgsKUL0ZZSJMs...

I don't think endorsements mean much to the average voter. This is huge for Malcolm Kenyatta.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman is gonna to win the primary

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Fetterman is gonna to win the primary

🛑 playing

[Pollster]

Am hearing from multiple different people of varying credibility that Arkoosh is not likely to remain in this race much longer.

[The Mikado]

Am hearing from multiple different people of varying credibility that Arkoosh is not likely to remain in this race much longer.

So at that point, it's just Fetterman, Lamb, and Kenyatta, right?

[Utah Neolib]

https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1486444376997904400?t=bFQgsKUL0ZZSJMs...

I don't think endorsements mean much to the average voter. This is huge for Malcolm Kenyatta.

“I don’t think polling means much. I mean, come on. People have to love Kenyatta!”

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Area man meets with President:

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1487149671491407877?s=20&t=rwJRLs...

[The Mikado]

Area man meets with President:

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1487149671491407877?s=20&t=rwJRLs...

He's wearing shorts???

Anyway, my basic take hasn't changed. Fetterman's big, weird-looking, incredibly tough, and friendly. Basically, he's Shrek.

People LIKE Shrek. It's one of the most popular movies of all time and spurred multiple sequels.

My money's on Shrek getting elected to the Senate in PA.

[Calthrina950]

Area man meets with President:

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1487149671491407877?s=20&t=rwJRLs...

I don't understand people who wear shorts in freezing and snowy weather. I see it all the time in Colorado, though. My father used to make derisive remarks about people he saw dressing like that.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/marley_parish/status/1487509909658865668?s=20&t=rg2ZsF9H...

[Roll Roons]

I think it's increasingly likely that Lamb is the Democratic nominee. GOP is still anyone's guess.