PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[😥]

Yeah, I doubt Fetterman would be the best GE candidate. In my opinion, all, Lamb, Kenyatta and Arkoosh, are more likely to win in GE

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Fetterman has done more to sabotage his own campaign in the last couple weeks than any other candidate could've dreamed of doing to him.

[Left Wing]

Fetterman has chosen to duck a forum, his main rivals in this race will attend (Street is completely irrelevant)

https://twitter.com/PASenateWatch/status/1483594027236737029

Fetterman has done more to sabotage his own campaign in the last couple weeks than any other candidate could've dreamed of doing to him.

Yet another piece of evidence that Fetterman sees the primary as his without having to work for it. This shows that he's a bad general election candidate.

https://mobile.twitter.com/giselefetterman/status/1483571071660052481


The senate was in session the night of the debate, ignoring his job to take part in primary debates (which very few people watch anyway) would be the far worse move.

[free my dawg]

Fetterman has chosen to duck a forum, his main rivals in this race will attend (Street is completely irrelevant)

Our great lieutenant governor has a full time job to take care of, with his colleague Sharif Street. Who you conveniently cherry-picked an excuse for because their absence doesn't fit your personal narratives.

In fact, it's come to my attention that you knew Fetterman was busy presiding over the Senate and posted this anyway! It's clear that the anti-Fetterman crowd can't hit him on his actual record so they're just resorting to making things up.

Ignoring Black voters in a state where Black turnout can make or break the race seems like...a...plan...

I'd say promising to back Trump over Bernie or Warren ignores black voters more than this incident, but that's just me.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman is still favored in this race were gonna win MI, PA and WI, CO, NV, AZ, GA and NH Govs and Senate races ANYWAYS

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

To be honest, its been very clear from the very beginning that Lamb has been running for US Senate out of sheer spite, and has not been running a serious campaign.

[Ferguson97]

tfw everyone is fighting over Fetterman vs Lamb and you just want Malcolm Kenyatta to win

[Grumpier Than Thou]

tfw everyone is fighting over Fetterman vs Lamb and you just want Malcolm Kenyatta to win

This is unironically how Kenyatta will win the primary

[Grumpier Than Thou]

I don't think it was posted, but Street is officially not running for Senate. Not like he was really exploring seriously in the first place:

https://twitter.com/Laurenjmayk/status/1483813097118867464?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

tfw everyone is fighting over Fetterman vs Lamb and you just want Malcolm Kenyatta to win

This is unironically how Kenyatta will win the primary

Lol Fetterman was leading 44/20 because all the anti Fetterman candidates are splitting up Montgomery County and he wins with Pittsburgh

[wbrocks67]

To be honest, its been very clear from the very beginning that Lamb has been running for US Senate out of sheer spite, and has not been running a serious campaign.

This is not true at all? What? All 4 are running serious races.

[SnowLabrador]

To be honest, its been very clear from the very beginning that Lamb has been running for US Senate out of sheer spite, and has not been running a serious campaign.

This is not true at all? What? All 4 are running serious races.

Agreed. I'm not a big fan of Lamb, but I'd hardly say that he's running solely out of spite.

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: The general election will be double digits for the Republicans. Look at the new Trafalgar GCB poll at R+13.

[Ferguson97]

Hot take: The general election will be double digits for the Republicans. Look at the new Trafalgar GCB poll at R+13.

Lol Trafalgar...

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: The general election will be double digits for the Republicans. Look at the new Trafalgar GCB poll at R+13.

Lol Trafalgar...

Trafalgar was the best pollster in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hot take: The general election will be double digits for the Republicans. Look at the new Trafalgar GCB poll at R+13.

Lol Trafalgar...

Trafalgar was the best pollster in 2020.

Of course but they get polls Right, close to the Election they predicted Warnock to lose in the regular election and had Trump leading by 1 in MI and WI, because unemployment was going down to 7.5 percent abd if unemployment was at 7 percent instead of 9 Trump would have won



Just like you and Millineal moderate and progressive moderate predicted GA wrong and you said Peters was gonna lose

[wbrocks67]

Hot take: The general election will be double digits for the Republicans. Look at the new Trafalgar GCB poll at R+13.

Lol Trafalgar...

Trafalgar was the best pollster in 2020.

yeah you're going on ignore at this point, can't do this

[free my dawg]

Hot take: The general election will be double digits for the Republicans. Look at the new Trafalgar GCB poll at R+13.

Lol Trafalgar...

Trafalgar was the best pollster in 2020.

yeah you're going on ignore at this point, can't do this

Just wait until the next D internal shows. Then Fetterman/Lamb will have it in the bag and Oz is f**ked.

[Utah Neolib]

People are hitting Fetterman too hard for not showing up at that debate. Falterin is right. However I do believe that Fetterman has run much too “Twitter-y” of a campaign and needs to appeal to minority groups such as blacks and Latinos more. People are going absolutely insane over Lamb vs Fetterman. Seriously, calm down.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Seriously, Atlas. A US House member representing a District with strong downballot Democratic leanings who underperformed Biden while running against a man who would then lose custody of their kids over domestic violence issues is not more electable than a sitting statewide official who was part of a ticket that won statewide in a landslide that was the biggest Dem win in the state in its entire decade. This aint hard.

[free my dawg]

Seriously, Atlas. A US House member representing a District with strong downballot Democratic leanings who underperformed Biden while running against a man who would then lose custody of their kids over domestic violence issues is not more electable than a sitting statewide official who was part of a ticket that won statewide in a landslide that was the biggest Dem win in the state in its entire decade. This aint hard.

And failed to capitalize on that knowledge!

I could at least understand arguing for Kenyatta or Arkoosh - especially Kenyatta given his performance - but come on. If Lamb wasn't a centrist the same people lauding him would be as vehemently opposed as I am.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Seriously, Atlas. A US House member representing a District with strong downballot Democratic leanings who underperformed Biden while running against a man who would then lose custody of their kids over domestic violence issues is not more electable than a sitting statewide official who was part of a ticket that won statewide in a landslide that was the biggest Dem win in the state in its entire decade. This aint hard.

I don’t disagree with you but to be fair this is how I felt about Ossoff being the nominee. He literally lost the most expensive house race in history to a perennial

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Seriously, Atlas. A US House member representing a District with strong downballot Democratic leanings who underperformed Biden while running against a man who would then lose custody of their kids over domestic violence issues is not more electable than a sitting statewide official who was part of a ticket that won statewide in a landslide that was the biggest Dem win in the state in its entire decade. This aint hard.

And failed to capitalize on that knowledge!

I could at least understand arguing for Kenyatta or Arkoosh - especially Kenyatta given his performance - but come on. If Lamb wasn't a centrist the same people lauding him would be as vehemently opposed as I am.

- There was no way for anyone to have known about the stuff with Parnell until it came out in court in 2021, so attacking Lamb for "failing to capitalize on that knowledge" is pretty silly.  There was no knowledge to capitalize on in 2020. 

- If we're being honest, Fetterman had nothing to do with Wolf's 2018 victory and only won the primary for LG b/c he was the only serious non-Philly/Philly burbs candidate in a clown car primary jam-packed with them.  Fetterman has never won an even remotely competitive GE in his own right or even run in one.  Wolf won because he was a popular Democratic Governor running for reelection in a Democratic wave year against an extremely weak opponent who received little help from national Republicans.

- Lamb essentially matched Biden's performance in a year where most congressional Democrats under-performed him and has won multiple competitive races in tough districts, dramatically over-performing in two of those three races.

- Neither of Lamb's districts were strongly Democratic-leaning seats.  The first one was a Safe Republican district where Democrats had no business being even remotely competitive during even a wave election.  The second was still a Republican-leaning district where he unseated an incumbent in a blowout victory and then won a tough reelection race in a district with a Republican PVI. 

- Fetterman has never even run in a competitive GE before.

- Fetterman has been running an extremely lazy, Twitter-oriented campaign and seems to think he's entitled to the seat.  Whatever you think of Lamb's campaign, behaving like you're above putting in the work because you deserve a coronation is not a winning strategy.  Even if you support Fetterman, he needed to start taking this seriously yesterday.

- The shotgun incident is going to be a major problem.  Honestly, this reminds me of the Cal Sextingham incident where most red-avatars were in denial about the fact that the scandal was clearly going to cause a lot of damage.  It's gonna be hard enough to get folks to turnout without nominating a guy who chased an unarmed black man around with a shotgun.

- There is no reason whatsoever to believe Fetterman would perform any better than Generic D with any group of voters.  The most progressive candidate can also be the most electable candidate.  Look at Sherrod Brown.  IIRC Cartwright is fairly progressive and I still think he'd be a much stronger candidate than Lamb. 

I still think Lamb is a stronger candidate than Kenyatta, but at least there's an argument to be made for Kenyatta.  He's a dynamic, exciting candidate who - at least from the admittedly little I've read - seems to be willing to work his a** off to win.  And if you said to me "Kenyatta can pull this off," I'd say "I'm not convinced he can go the distance in this environment, but he might have a path and I'd love to be wrong."  I don't think that would happen and he could even under-perform statewide, but it's possible to envision a scenario where he wins.  Lamb can win too, although he obviously has a different path.  Idk if Lamb or Kenyatta would win, but what I do know is that assuming LARPing WWC folks while running a lazy, Twitter-focused campaign is not a winning strategy. 

Arkoosh is just a generic D, so at this point, we should either go with Kenyatta in hopes of generating high enough base turnout to beat the environment or go with Lamb and hope he can run far enough ahead of Generic D to carry the day.     

[Meatball Ron]

Seriously, Atlas. A US House member representing a District with strong downballot Democratic leanings who underperformed Biden while running against a man who would then lose custody of their kids over domestic violence issues is not more electable than a sitting statewide official who was part of a ticket that won statewide in a landslide that was the biggest Dem win in the state in its entire decade. This aint hard.

And failed to capitalize on that knowledge!

I could at least understand arguing for Kenyatta or Arkoosh - especially Kenyatta given his performance - but come on. If Lamb wasn't a centrist the same people lauding him would be as vehemently opposed as I am.

Snip

Fantastic summary of the dynamics in this race

[Gracile]

These conversations are unproductive. The fact is any Democrat is going to be an underdog in this race by nature of the fundamentals of Pennsylvania in a heavily Republican-leaning year. I really don't see Lamb or Fetterman being particularly likely to outrun the partisan lean in this year's environment (and I say this as someone who strongly prefers Fetterman in this race).