IA-SEN 2022: Grassley vs Franken

[Brittain33]

An 88-year-old man has a life expectancy of 4.8 years and a chance of 13% of dying before his 89th birthday.

[Continential]

An 88-year-old man has a life expectancy of 4.8 years and a chance of 13% of dying before his 89th birthday.

An 88-year-old man has a life expectancy of 4.8 years and a chance of 13% of dying before his 89th birthday.

You posted this twice.

[Roll Roons]

An 88-year-old man has a life expectancy of 4.8 years and a chance of 13% of dying before his 89th birthday.

TBF, he does seem pretty healthy for an 88 year old. But I think it is very possible that he doesn't serve out the full term either because of death or resignation.

[Xing]

He'll likely be a "lifer", and while I'm against there being a maximum age for Senators (my grandfather was still 100% with it until the very end, and he was 106), I do wish people would be consistent in their belief, and not only support age limits when the Senator/party in question isn't to their liking.

[mtvoter]

I'm not surprised. He will probably die in office. Finkenauer is headed to a double-digit loss next year, against a man who's been in office since before she was born. However, as I've said before, she may do better than any of his opponents have since his first, Culver.

No. Jon Tester's residual mega-coattails from his 2018 campaign will bring Finkenauer to a single digit loss.

He could've spent his mega-coattail points to flip several close races in the farm belt and defeat Rojo by convincing WI dairy farmers to all vote dem, but he graciously chooses to save Finkenauer from a double digit humiliation vs the Iowan godfather pidgin God instead.


Probably Grassley + 9.9 points.

[free my dawg]

Safe R --> Titanium R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Right now Biden Approvals are near where they were on Election night 2020 anyways and it's a 304 until his domestic agenda is passed and that's iffy with showdown with Rs over debt ceiling, Rs aren't budging due to tac hikes in the Reconciliation Bill

So, iA isn't a Tipping pt race right now anyways but it has only 3%,Blk, NC, FL and OH, TX, MO have 12/25% Afro Americans

[GALeftist]

Safe R –> Adamantium R, frankly I'm glad that hopefully no one will spend a dime on this race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R –> Adamantium R, frankly I'm glad that hopefully no one will spend a dime on this race

Ras Smith is still  asking for money on Act 🔵🔵🔵 and he is running for IA GOV

[MargieCat]

Democrats can focus on trying to defeat Kim Reynolds so they can choose Grassley's successor when he croaks.

Although defeating Kim is not very realistic, it's more realistic than defeating Grassley.

[Schiff for Senate]

This is wave insurance there hasn't been any polls on this this far

In case you haven't remarked, no Democrat has won a statewide race in IA since 2012 (when Obama was the last Democrat to win Iowa in a presidential election).

Tom Miller's and his 2018 election map say's high.

Tom Miller, Rob Sand etc. are also likely going to lose in 2022, and probably only won in 2018 because it was a D wave.

Yes Tom Miller, Iowa Attorney General since the 1970s who didn't even face a Republican opponent only won because of a dem wave.

Yeah, not all wins for Iowa Democrats in 2018 were because muh wave year. In 2020, if you notice, they survived even as the Orange Man (Trump) swept the state by 8 points. Maybe people like Cindy Axne are in danger, but not a guy like Tom Miller. Maybe the race will feature a GOP incumbent, and it will probably be less of a landslide, but Tom Miller won't lose reelection when he's been in office for so long. He's the Democratic Chuck Grassley. The fact is that long tenure breeds crossover appeal in a small, rural state like Iowa, and that's what leads to Chuck Grassley (R) and Tom Miller (D) both winning in landslides regardless of year. The race will still probably be contested in 2020, and I think it's unlikely Miller will break, say, 60%, but I think he'll make it by at least 5 points at the very least no matter what else. And maybe in a grand upset, Miller could lose. But there's absolutely nothing definitive or certain about that. I'd say it's just as likely that he wins by double digits that he loses (probably he'll win by the high single-digits or low double-digits). Rob Sand, State Auditor, is much more likely to lose in 2022, since he was just swept up in the Democratic wave of 2022. But as I said, people like Fitzgerald and Miller are wave-proof at this point.

EDIT: It seems that in 2014, when he actually faced an opponent, Miller won by just 12 points. So there may be some level of uncertainty as to his reelection in 2022, but it's still outrageous to assert he will definitely lose in 2022 or that the only reason he won in 2018 was because muh wave year.

[brucejoel99]

The tweets and his actions at the hearing this year both suggested a situation even worse than Feinstein tbh.

A senator being 95 while still being in office is just f**king insane.

The tweets suggest that he's an average 88-year-old who doesn't care about smartphones enough to bother overcoming the general hassle that learning how to use such a relatively new piece of technology as a smartphone tends to present to an average 88-year-old.

It's quite ironic how you literally said in the 12th post before this one that:

[This] shows how Dems are not as immature as Reps, considering the 'Dementia Joe' moniker could easily be applied to Chuck but no one does it (and I'm not saying they should, either).

... given how you then immediately proceeded to hypocritically turn around & apply it to him in the very same immature manner that you supposedly bemoan (let alone in a baseless manner given how, in the meantime, another poster literally discussed in-depth how this isn't exactly a Feinstein/Cochran situation).

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, not all wins for Iowa Democrats in 2018 were because muh wave year. In 2020, if you notice, they survived even as the Orange Man (Trump) swept the state by 8 points. Maybe people like Cindy Axne are in danger, but not a guy like Tom Miller. Maybe the race will feature a GOP incumbent, and it will probably be less of a landslide, but Tom Miller won't lose reelection when he's been in office for so long. He's the Democratic Chuck Grassley. The fact is that long tenure breeds crossover appeal in a small, rural state like Iowa, and that's what leads to Chuck Grassley (R) and Tom Miller (D) both winning in landslides regardless of year The race will still probably be contested in 2020, and I think it's unlikely Miller will break, say, 60%, but I think he'll make it by at least 5 points at the very least no matter what else. And maybe in a grand upset, Miller could lose. But there's absolutely nothing definitive or certain about that. I'd say it's just as likely that he wins by double digits that he loses (probably he'll win by the high single-digits or low double-digits). Rob Sand, State Auditor, is much more likely to lose in 2022, since he was just swept up in the Democratic wave of 2022. But as I said, people like Fitzgerald and Miller are wave-proof at this point.

EDIT: It seems that in 2014, when he actually faced an opponent, Miller won by just 12 points. So there may be some level of uncertainty as to his reelection in 2022, but it's still outrageous to assert he will definitely lose in 2022 or that the only reason he won in 2018 was because muh wave year.

K

[Schiff for Senate]

Yeah, not all wins for Iowa Democrats in 2018 were because muh wave year. In 2020, if you notice, they survived even as the Orange Man (Trump) swept the state by 8 points. Maybe people like Cindy Axne are in danger, but not a guy like Tom Miller. Maybe the race will feature a GOP incumbent, and it will probably be less of a landslide, but Tom Miller won't lose reelection when he's been in office for so long. He's the Democratic Chuck Grassley. The fact is that long tenure breeds crossover appeal in a small, rural state like Iowa, and that's what leads to Chuck Grassley (R) and Tom Miller (D) both winning in landslides regardless of year The race will still probably be contested in 2020, and I think it's unlikely Miller will break, say, 60%, but I think he'll make it by at least 5 points at the very least no matter what else. And maybe in a grand upset, Miller could lose. But there's absolutely nothing definitive or certain about that. I'd say it's just as likely that he wins by double digits that he loses (probably he'll win by the high single-digits or low double-digits). Rob Sand, State Auditor, is much more likely to lose in 2022, since he was just swept up in the Democratic wave of 2022. But as I said, people like Fitzgerald and Miller are wave-proof at this point.

EDIT: It seems that in 2014, when he actually faced an opponent, Miller won by just 12 points. So there may be some level of uncertainty as to his reelection in 2022, but it's still outrageous to assert he will definitely lose in 2022 or that the only reason he won in 2018 was because muh wave year.

K

He won by 12 points in 2014. Maybe my statements were exaggerations but Miller and Fitzgerald will definitely be favourites in their races in 2022 if they run (if either retires, though, the open seat will be likely-to-safe Republican).

[Calthrina950]

Yeah, not all wins for Iowa Democrats in 2018 were because muh wave year. In 2020, if you notice, they survived even as the Orange Man (Trump) swept the state by 8 points. Maybe people like Cindy Axne are in danger, but not a guy like Tom Miller. Maybe the race will feature a GOP incumbent, and it will probably be less of a landslide, but Tom Miller won't lose reelection when he's been in office for so long. He's the Democratic Chuck Grassley. The fact is that long tenure breeds crossover appeal in a small, rural state like Iowa, and that's what leads to Chuck Grassley (R) and Tom Miller (D) both winning in landslides regardless of year The race will still probably be contested in 2020, and I think it's unlikely Miller will break, say, 60%, but I think he'll make it by at least 5 points at the very least no matter what else. And maybe in a grand upset, Miller could lose. But there's absolutely nothing definitive or certain about that. I'd say it's just as likely that he wins by double digits that he loses (probably he'll win by the high single-digits or low double-digits). Rob Sand, State Auditor, is much more likely to lose in 2022, since he was just swept up in the Democratic wave of 2022. But as I said, people like Fitzgerald and Miller are wave-proof at this point.

EDIT: It seems that in 2014, when he actually faced an opponent, Miller won by just 12 points. So there may be some level of uncertainty as to his reelection in 2022, but it's still outrageous to assert he will definitely lose in 2022 or that the only reason he won in 2018 was because muh wave year.

K

He won by 12 points in 2014. Maybe my statements were exaggerations but Miller and Fitzgerald will definitely be favourites in their races in 2022 if they run (if either retires, though, the open seat will be likely-to-safe Republican).

There have been numerous examples in just the past decade alone (i.e. Blanche Lincoln, Claire McCaskill, Bill Nelson, John Perdue, Ted Strickland, etc.) of incumbents who've lost reelection after winning their previous races by landslides (or near-landslides). Given Iowa's strong Republican trend, the pro-Republican nature of next year's midterm environment, and increasing polarization, I wouldn't be surprised if Fitzgerald and Miller meet a similar fate. They could very well still win next year, but if they do, it will be by sharply reduced margins compared to 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fink whom was supposed to win or be competetive flopped I. This race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, not all wins for Iowa Democrats in 2018 were because muh wave year. In 2020, if you notice, they survived even as the Orange Man (Trump) swept the state by 8 points. Maybe people like Cindy Axne are in danger, but not a guy like Tom Miller. Maybe the race will feature a GOP incumbent, and it will probably be less of a landslide, but Tom Miller won't lose reelection when he's been in office for so long. He's the Democratic Chuck Grassley. The fact is that long tenure breeds crossover appeal in a small, rural state like Iowa, and that's what leads to Chuck Grassley (R) and Tom Miller (D) both winning in landslides regardless of year The race will still probably be contested in 2020, and I think it's unlikely Miller will break, say, 60%, but I think he'll make it by at least 5 points at the very least no matter what else. And maybe in a grand upset, Miller could lose. But there's absolutely nothing definitive or certain about that. I'd say it's just as likely that he wins by double digits that he loses (probably he'll win by the high single-digits or low double-digits). Rob Sand, State Auditor, is much more likely to lose in 2022, since he was just swept up in the Democratic wave of 2022. But as I said, people like Fitzgerald and Miller are wave-proof at this point.

EDIT: It seems that in 2014, when he actually faced an opponent, Miller won by just 12 points. So there may be some level of uncertainty as to his reelection in 2022, but it's still outrageous to assert he will definitely lose in 2022 or that the only reason he won in 2018 was because muh wave year.

K

He won by 12 points in 2014. Maybe my statements were exaggerations but Miller and Fitzgerald will definitely be favourites in their races in 2022 if they run (if either retires, though, the open seat will be likely-to-safe Republican).

There have been numerous examples in just the past decade alone (i.e. Blanche Lincoln, Claire McCaskill, Bill Nelson, John Perdue, Ted Strickland, etc.) of incumbents who've lost reelection after winning their previous races by landslides (or near-landslides). Given Iowa's strong Republican trend, the pro-Republican nature of next year's midterm environment, and increasing polarization, I wouldn't be surprised if Fitzgerald and Miller meet a similar fate. They could very well still win next year, but if they do, it will be by sharply reduced margins compared to 2018.

It's not a pro Republican Midterm it's a Neutral Environment it's a 304 ma pand D's are expected to keep a 51 or better Senate, but the H is Gerrymandering

It's only a Pro R biased when Rs cracked the Blue wall and they're expected to lose NH, NV, WI and PA but they can win GA in a Runoff

AZ is worrisome, same with 2024, the Blue Wall is solid but OH, WVA, MT and AZ are worrisome

[Schiff for Senate]

Yeah, not all wins for Iowa Democrats in 2018 were because muh wave year. In 2020, if you notice, they survived even as the Orange Man (Trump) swept the state by 8 points. Maybe people like Cindy Axne are in danger, but not a guy like Tom Miller. Maybe the race will feature a GOP incumbent, and it will probably be less of a landslide, but Tom Miller won't lose reelection when he's been in office for so long. He's the Democratic Chuck Grassley. The fact is that long tenure breeds crossover appeal in a small, rural state like Iowa, and that's what leads to Chuck Grassley (R) and Tom Miller (D) both winning in landslides regardless of year The race will still probably be contested in 2020, and I think it's unlikely Miller will break, say, 60%, but I think he'll make it by at least 5 points at the very least no matter what else. And maybe in a grand upset, Miller could lose. But there's absolutely nothing definitive or certain about that. I'd say it's just as likely that he wins by double digits that he loses (probably he'll win by the high single-digits or low double-digits). Rob Sand, State Auditor, is much more likely to lose in 2022, since he was just swept up in the Democratic wave of 2022. But as I said, people like Fitzgerald and Miller are wave-proof at this point.

EDIT: It seems that in 2014, when he actually faced an opponent, Miller won by just 12 points. So there may be some level of uncertainty as to his reelection in 2022, but it's still outrageous to assert he will definitely lose in 2022 or that the only reason he won in 2018 was because muh wave year.

K

He won by 12 points in 2014. Maybe my statements were exaggerations but Miller and Fitzgerald will definitely be favourites in their races in 2022 if they run (if either retires, though, the open seat will be likely-to-safe Republican).

There have been numerous examples in just the past decade alone (i.e. Blanche Lincoln, Claire McCaskill, Bill Nelson, John Perdue, Ted Strickland, etc.) of incumbents who've lost reelection after winning their previous races by landslides (or near-landslides). Given Iowa's strong Republican trend, the pro-Republican nature of next year's midterm environment, and increasing polarization, I wouldn't be surprised if Fitzgerald and Miller meet a similar fate. They could very well still win next year, but if they do, it will be by sharply reduced margins compared to 2018.

Fair enough. But I still think they're favourites. What really ticked me off was the suggestion that they both only won in 2018 because it was a wave year, which discounts the fact that both are very long-term incumbents and have won comfortably in red years like 2010 and 2014 too. I'd call both races likely Democratic, maybe lean Democratic. Still, in all fairness, the state has reddened in the Trump years and I don't think they'll win by double digits anymore.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I really, really like Finkenauer, and I'm sad that I can't envision a political future for her in this state anymore.  She's a real one.

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Bob Krause running
https://mobile.twitter.com/KrauseForIowa/status/1445940457402404867

[Roll Roons]

Bob Krause running
https://mobile.twitter.com/KrauseForIowa/status/1445940457402404867

I just got a migraine from looking at this tweet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Grassley isn't Losing in a Pandemic

[MT Treasurer]

Abby Finkenauer thinks low-propensity Trumpists will enable her to win without Trump on the ballot:

Republican lawmakers in Iowa will stand next to Donald Trump at his Des Moines rally this weekend. Former Rep. Abby Finkenauer – who is running for Senate in 2022 – says it’s because they know they can’t win without Donald Trump.

https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/as-trump-heads-to-rally-in-iowa-how-can-democrats-take-back-the-state-123141189598

(listen to this, it’s actually hilarious)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/as-trump-heads-to-rally-in-iowa-how-can-democrats-take-back-the-state/vi-AAPimrl

[OSR stands with Israel]

Abby Finkenauer thinks low-propensity Trumpists will enable her to win without Trump on the ballot:

Republican lawmakers in Iowa will stand next to Donald Trump at his Des Moines rally this weekend. Former Rep. Abby Finkenauer – who is running for Senate in 2022 – says it’s because they know they can’t win without Donald Trump.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/as-trump-heads-to-rally-in-iowa-how-can-democrats-take-back-the-state/vi-AAPimrl

Hopefully, Dem donors also agree with her and dumb millions of dollars on that race

[MT Treasurer]

Hopefully, Dem donors also agree with her and dumb millions of dollars on that race

I’m actually unironically considering the possibility that she’s an Atlas poster/browser who just launched her campaign for the memes. What she said in that MSNBC clip sounds like first-class parody of all the IA takes on this forum ("again, in 2022, Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot", "in 2018, three out of four Congressional districts went to Democrats", "Republicans know they can’t win without Donald Trump on the ballot", pushing January 6 as the most 'effective' line of attack against IA Republicans, etc.).

If you’re actually reading this thread, Abby, I love you and thank you so much for this.