Reaction to Nevada trending R again?
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Author Topic: Reaction to Nevada trending R again?  (Read 436 times)
Woody
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« on: November 12, 2020, 03:58:07 AM »
?
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Annatar
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« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2020, 04:05:52 AM »
I stated I thought it would, very few college whites and demographically suits the kind of demographics the GOP is stronger in.
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2020, 05:10:22 AM »
Erm

2016 Clinton 47.92% Trump 45.5%

2020 Biden 50.25% Trump 47.49%

It's trended D?
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2020, 05:30:31 AM »
Quote from: BobbieMac on November 12, 2020, 05:10:22 AM
Erm

2016 Clinton 47.92% Trump 45.5%

2020 Biden 50.25% Trump 47.49%

It's trended D?
In US election atlas/ Talk Elections forum terminology "trend" means "two-party margin swing of a subdivision in relation to the national popular vote swing". As the nation as of now swung 1,1 % to the Democrats and Nevada only did so by 0,3 % it trended to the Republicans. Weither this is meaningful lies in the eye of the beholder.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2020, 05:32:48 AM »
I thought this wasn't the worst ground for an R trend but 2020 is going to have the weakest predictive power in NV (compared to other states) because of how the lockdown affected its workers. It may ultimately have masked a stronger Republican trend but I suspect it did the opposite, although that will be irrelevant if state governments are still carrying on with them in 2022.
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bagelman
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« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2020, 05:43:48 AM »
It's due to special conditions in 2020. Clark swung narrowly R due to, and I'm serious, angry strippers and gaming workers at the lockdowns and losing business. Not to mention some Latino swing.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2020, 06:00:45 AM »
Nevada is very close to the national average.

Anyway, this was a VERY strange election. I'm not sure we can infer much from this election going forward. If 2024 is like between Kamala Harris and Nikki Haley and there is no pandemic, things could look wildly different in a bunch of states.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2020, 07:09:00 AM »
I'm not surprised, given the large Latino population. For some reason Trump improved massively with the demographic that he called rapists and murderers.
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Person Man
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« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2020, 07:51:40 AM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on November 12, 2020, 07:09:00 AM
I'm not surprised, given the large Latino population. For some reason Trump improved massively with the demographic that he called rapists and murderers.

Ever see that episode of Its Always Sunny where Frank dresses up that refugee family to be white?
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2020, 07:57:07 AM »
Quote from: BobbieMac on November 12, 2020, 05:10:22 AM
Erm

2016 Clinton 47.92% Trump 45.5%

2020 Biden 50.25% Trump 47.49%

It's trended D?

Swung D, trended R.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2020, 08:10:16 AM »
Lol CCM and Jacky Rosen aren't Doing Jones but can win competitive races the next two Election cycles which will help Sisolak and Biden
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Person Man
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« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2020, 08:18:33 AM »
Quote from: Lord Halifax on November 12, 2020, 07:57:07 AM
Quote from: BobbieMac on November 12, 2020, 05:10:22 AM
Erm

2016 Clinton 47.92% Trump 45.5%

2020 Biden 50.25% Trump 47.49%

It's trended D?

Swung D, trended R.

It can still probably have very close to zero trend.
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