2020 Nebraska Redistricting

[Skill and Chance]

Part of the problem here is that Nebraska's legislature requires 2/3rds of a vote to end debate. Republicans did not meet that threshold, so they will need Democratic votes for any map (unless they nuke the filibuster like our Senate might). But yes, if they do that, it's pretty easy to split Douglas County. Send one district up north, one south, and leave NE-03 as is. Or you can put Lincoln in NE-03 and then you'd have three safely Republican seats.

NE-02 voted almost 10 points to the right of the nation back then. Given that it's now in line with the nation and could decide a presidential election, there's much more incentive to gerrymander it.

I also thought Nebraska had a non-partisan legislature. Is there a way to know if they are D or R?

There are but there are literal RINOs

https://johnmccollister.com/

"Republican Redefined "

"The Republican case for bold action on climate change"

"The Conservative Case for Unions"

Im sure this dude will totally split Omaha.

do they need the vote of the most liberal member of their caucus?

They would need to repeal the filibuster too, although it isn't fully non partisan, the non partisan nature of the NE legislature means they really don't care about the national GOP too much. It basically comes down to how much Pete Ricketts is willing to push the legislature and they aren't great buddies either.

Also, remember that, while the Maine Dem trifecta can't gerrymander ME-02 due to 2/3rds majority language in the state constitution, they can just end EV-by-CD by a standard majority vote if the NE GOP tries to gerrymander NE-02.

[Skill and Chance]

Putting parts of Omaha into the same district as Lincoln is just a senseless risk on the part of the GOP. Republicans are still competitive in Omaha and last decade's Biden-won NE-02 was held by a Republican congressman, so it's not like they even have to create a Democratic vote sink. I think the parties are just a bit delusional about their ability to hang on to communities that are trending away from them.

Part of me is wanting the GOP to get its map through because of the sheer dummymander potential, the other part of me wants the state to have better districts.

I bet we see Jen Day go to Congress at some point if the GOP lines get implemented. She's the "Democratic" legislator who won a tight election in 2020 to flip a seat in Trump-aligned western Sarpy. Her profile is awfully similar to Sharice Davids's background (except not LGBTQ), and party insiders love running up-and-comers with a story that has to worked before.

It would be hilarious if this map goes forward and this is the 2028 presidential result

[Skill and Chance]

Bump. 

The "Republican" map that puts part of downtown Omaha with Lincoln in NE-01 and still has a Biden +6 NE-02 advanced out of committee today on a 5/4 vote. 

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/fredmknapp/status/1439020057640804355

Interesting.  I guess Dems are holding out for a Biden +10ish NE-02 with all of Douglas?

[Skill and Chance]

Both NE and ME should get rid of the split electoral votes, it's bad politics and will tear this country apart if other states try it.

Agreed.  It's Pandora's Box for democracy.  If NE and ME keep splitting their votes regularly, someone will eventually try this in a large, urbanized state with gerrymandered CD lines.

[Skill and Chance]

Both NE and ME should get rid of the split electoral votes, it's bad politics and will tear this country apart if other states try it.

Agreed.  It's Pandora's Box for democracy.  If NE and ME keep splitting their votes regularly, someone will eventually try this in a large, urbanized state with gerrymandered CD lines.

That might finally wake Dems up regarding the importance of winning governorships and state legislatures in key swing states.

They did win key governorships in a number of swing states, though. WI, MI, PA, NC, NV. ME, MN as well. Democrats suffer more at the state level due to the fact that there are more Republican-leaning states than not, and hyper-polarization means there is usually a hard ceiling for many of these states. Democrats seemed to learn a number of lessons in the Trump era, but the fact is, with the country being the way it is right now, they can only do so well in otherwise hostile territory. Money, campaigning and organizing only gets you so far. After a certain point, it doesn't matter how much of either you have/do, it's not going to win you a state legislature if a comfortable majority of the state hates your guts.

Another big factor is that with a highly gerrymandered and/or highly geographically biased map, one side eventually just stops seriously trying to win control until conditions change.  This was certainly the case with Republicans at the US House level during much of 1954-1992 and in Southern state legislatures until the Bush Jr. era.  You can see similar things today with Democrats just giving up on winning state legislative chambers in states where they often win the governorship and presidential elections (WI,MI,PA, etc.).  Had they failed to flip the US House in 2018, it might have even happened at that level.

[Skill and Chance]

Both NE and ME should get rid of the split electoral votes, it's bad politics and will tear this country apart if other states try it.

I don't get this. What's so bad about the Maine and Nebraska method? We're already atrociously divided as it is, but why would adopting that method in more states make it worse? The way I see it, adopting that method increases the likelihood that presidential candidates, in the fall election, will campaign in more states. Nebraska would likely never be visited at all by Democrat nominees if the state didn't use the congressional district method. If California were to adopt the district method, then Republican nominees would have a good reason to spend a lot of time campaigning there, instead of writing the whole state off. What arguments outweigh that consideration?

California would at least be less egregious because at least the districts there are drawn by a commission.  The two problems are gerrymandering and VRA rights.  If a state with VRA district obligations does this, it gives that minority group dramatically less say in the EC outcome if that group's preferred candidate wins statewide.  The case would be stronger for having EV-by-CD in a state with VRA districts that routinely vote against the statewide winner, but let's be honest, that's not what's being considered here.  It's always the exact opposite scenario when this comes up!