2020 Nebraska Redistricting

[GALeftist]

Part of the problem here is that Nebraska's legislature requires 2/3rds of a vote to end debate. Republicans did not meet that threshold, so they will need Democratic votes for any map (unless they nuke the filibuster like our Senate might). But yes, if they do that, it's pretty easy to split Douglas County. Send one district up north, one south, and leave NE-03 as is. Or you can put Lincoln in NE-03 and then you'd have three safely Republican seats.

NE-02 voted almost 10 points to the right of the nation back then. Given that it's now in line with the nation and could decide a presidential election, there's much more incentive to gerrymander it.

I also thought Nebraska had a non-partisan legislature. Is there a way to know if they are D or R?

There are but there are literal RINOs

https://johnmccollister.com/

"Republican Redefined "

"The Republican case for bold action on climate change"

"The Conservative Case for Unions"

Im sure this dude will totally split Omaha.

do they need the vote of the most liberal member of their caucus?

They would need to repeal the filibuster too, although it isn't fully non partisan, the non partisan nature of the NE legislature means they really don't care about the national GOP too much. It basically comes down to how much Pete Ricketts is willing to push the legislature and they aren't great buddies either.

Also, remember that, while the Maine Dem trifecta can't gerrymander ME-02 due to 2/3rds majority language in the state constitution, they can just end EV-by-CD by a standard majority vote if the NE GOP tries to gerrymander NE-02.

This is not an equal trade.  For NE, it is safe R statewide and if an election were to be such a Dem landslide that the state was in play, it would already be lost anyhow, regardless of NE.  But for ME, Clinton only narrowly won it.  While Biden improved, there's so reason to assume ME wouldn't be competitive statewide in a future election.  Making NE winner take all has no risk for Republicans, doin the same in ME carries some risk for Dems.

It's not equal, per se, but it's definitely better for Democrats to have Maine be winner take all than the way it is now. At least until 2028, which is the relevant date here, odds are good that the Democrats will be substantial favorites to carry the state, so it would make sense as a tit for tat retaliation, even if the tat is smaller.

[GALeftist]

Putting parts of Omaha into the same district as Lincoln is just a senseless risk on the part of the GOP. Republicans are still competitive in Omaha and last decade's Biden-won NE-02 was held by a Republican congressman, so it's not like they even have to create a Democratic vote sink. I think the parties are just a bit delusional about their ability to hang on to communities that are trending away from them.

Part of me is wanting the GOP to get its map through because of the sheer dummymander potential, the other part of me wants the state to have better districts.

I bet we see Jen Day go to Congress at some point if the GOP lines get implemented. She's the "Democratic" legislator who won a tight election in 2020 to flip a seat in Trump-aligned western Sarpy. Her profile is awfully similar to Sharice Davids's background (except not LGBTQ), and party insiders love running up-and-comers with a story that has to worked before.

It would be hilarious if this map goes forward and this is the 2028 presidential result

The year is 2028. This is the Presidential result:

A contingent election is triggered in the House. Democrats hold majorities in every state they won, including Minnesota, thanks to a third-party spoiler in a usually R district, but excluding Georgia, which has been gerrymandered by the Republicans. This brings them to 22 delegations. Alaska's new voting system and a poor R campaign has elected an Independent who caucuses with Democrats despite the state voting R. Nevada Democrats drew a durable map, and entrenched incumbents have held onto their 3-1 majority. A failed gerrymander in Texas has let the Democrats get away with a narrow 20-18 majority in Texas. Finally, Nebraska's two Democratic representatives cast the 26th vote for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to be the 47th President of the United States.

[GALeftist]

So basically an identical NE-02 from a partisan perspective.