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November 29, 2020, 05:22:12 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  2020 Nebraska Redistricting
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Author Topic: 2020 Nebraska Redistricting  (Read 848 times)
kwabbit
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« on: November 12, 2020, 01:43:35 AM »

There was a thread, but it's been untouched since 2011. A fresh thread seems appropriate.

To me, Nebraska's redistricting is among the more interesting possibilities. It has just 3 congressional districts, but NE-02 has become a presidential battleground.

As far as I know, Nebraska prohibits redistricting with partisan intent, but I wonder how far can this be tested. It would be easy for the GOP to create 3 Republican districts. As it stands it's 2 safe R and one tossup. But it could easily be 1 safe 2 likely R if the GOP decides to split Douglas county.
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avishwanath28
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« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2020, 11:38:08 AM »

Part of the problem here is that Nebraska's legislature requires 2/3rds of a vote to end debate. Republicans did not meet that threshold, so they will need Democratic votes for any map (unless they nuke the filibuster like our Senate might). But yes, if they do that, it's pretty easy to split Douglas County. Send one district up north, one south, and leave NE-03 as is. Or you can put Lincoln in NE-03 and then you'd have three safely Republican seats.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2020, 01:22:08 AM »

Part of the problem here is that Nebraska's legislature requires 2/3rds of a vote to end debate. Republicans did not meet that threshold, so they will need Democratic votes for any map (unless they nuke the filibuster like our Senate might). But yes, if they do that, it's pretty easy to split Douglas County. Send one district up north, one south, and leave NE-03 as is. Or you can put Lincoln in NE-03 and then you'd have three safely Republican seats.
NE-02 voted almost 10 points to the right of the nation back then. Given that it's now in line with the nation and could decide a presidential election, there's much more incentive to gerrymander it.

I also thought Nebraska had a non-partisan legislature. Is there a way to know if they are D or R?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #3 on: November 13, 2020, 01:25:31 AM »

Part of the problem here is that Nebraska's legislature requires 2/3rds of a vote to end debate. Republicans did not meet that threshold, so they will need Democratic votes for any map (unless they nuke the filibuster like our Senate might). But yes, if they do that, it's pretty easy to split Douglas County. Send one district up north, one south, and leave NE-03 as is. Or you can put Lincoln in NE-03 and then you'd have three safely Republican seats.
NE-02 voted almost 10 points to the right of the nation back then. Given that it's now in line with the nation and could decide a presidential election, there's much more incentive to gerrymander it.

I also thought Nebraska had a non-partisan legislature. Is there a way to know if they are D or R?

There are but there are literal RINOs

https://johnmccollister.com/

"Republican Redefined "

"The Republican case for bold action on climate change"

"The Conservative Case for Unions"

Im sure this dude will totally split Omaha.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #4 on: November 13, 2020, 04:22:35 AM »

Part of the problem here is that Nebraska's legislature requires 2/3rds of a vote to end debate. Republicans did not meet that threshold, so they will need Democratic votes for any map (unless they nuke the filibuster like our Senate might). But yes, if they do that, it's pretty easy to split Douglas County. Send one district up north, one south, and leave NE-03 as is. Or you can put Lincoln in NE-03 and then you'd have three safely Republican seats.
NE-02 voted almost 10 points to the right of the nation back then. Given that it's now in line with the nation and could decide a presidential election, there's much more incentive to gerrymander it.

I also thought Nebraska had a non-partisan legislature. Is there a way to know if they are D or R?

There are but there are literal RINOs

https://johnmccollister.com/

"Republican Redefined "

"The Republican case for bold action on climate change"

"The Conservative Case for Unions"

Im sure this dude will totally split Omaha.
do they need the vote of the most liberal member of their caucus?
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #5 on: November 13, 2020, 06:03:13 AM »

Part of the problem here is that Nebraska's legislature requires 2/3rds of a vote to end debate. Republicans did not meet that threshold, so they will need Democratic votes for any map (unless they nuke the filibuster like our Senate might). But yes, if they do that, it's pretty easy to split Douglas County. Send one district up north, one south, and leave NE-03 as is. Or you can put Lincoln in NE-03 and then you'd have three safely Republican seats.
NE-02 voted almost 10 points to the right of the nation back then. Given that it's now in line with the nation and could decide a presidential election, there's much more incentive to gerrymander it.

I also thought Nebraska had a non-partisan legislature. Is there a way to know if they are D or R?

There are but there are literal RINOs

https://johnmccollister.com/

"Republican Redefined "

"The Republican case for bold action on climate change"

"The Conservative Case for Unions"

Im sure this dude will totally split Omaha.

Why can't all Republicans be like this?   Cry
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lfromnj
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« Reply #6 on: November 13, 2020, 10:04:01 AM »
« Edited: November 13, 2020, 10:14:38 AM by lfromnj »

Part of the problem here is that Nebraska's legislature requires 2/3rds of a vote to end debate. Republicans did not meet that threshold, so they will need Democratic votes for any map (unless they nuke the filibuster like our Senate might). But yes, if they do that, it's pretty easy to split Douglas County. Send one district up north, one south, and leave NE-03 as is. Or you can put Lincoln in NE-03 and then you'd have three safely Republican seats.
NE-02 voted almost 10 points to the right of the nation back then. Given that it's now in line with the nation and could decide a presidential election, there's much more incentive to gerrymander it.

I also thought Nebraska had a non-partisan legislature. Is there a way to know if they are D or R?

There are but there are literal RINOs

https://johnmccollister.com/

"Republican Redefined "

"The Republican case for bold action on climate change"

"The Conservative Case for Unions"

Im sure this dude will totally split Omaha.
do they need the vote of the most liberal member of their caucus?

They would need to repeal the filibuster too, although it isn't fully non partisan, the non partisan nature of the NE legislature means they really don't care about the national GOP too much. It basically comes down to how much Pete Ricketts is willing to push the legislature and they aren't great buddies either.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: November 13, 2020, 12:56:29 PM »

Part of the problem here is that Nebraska's legislature requires 2/3rds of a vote to end debate. Republicans did not meet that threshold, so they will need Democratic votes for any map (unless they nuke the filibuster like our Senate might). But yes, if they do that, it's pretty easy to split Douglas County. Send one district up north, one south, and leave NE-03 as is. Or you can put Lincoln in NE-03 and then you'd have three safely Republican seats.
NE-02 voted almost 10 points to the right of the nation back then. Given that it's now in line with the nation and could decide a presidential election, there's much more incentive to gerrymander it.

I also thought Nebraska had a non-partisan legislature. Is there a way to know if they are D or R?

There are but there are literal RINOs

https://johnmccollister.com/

"Republican Redefined "

"The Republican case for bold action on climate change"

"The Conservative Case for Unions"

Im sure this dude will totally split Omaha.
do they need the vote of the most liberal member of their caucus?

They would need to repeal the filibuster too, although it isn't fully non partisan, the non partisan nature of the NE legislature means they really don't care about the national GOP too much. It basically comes down to how much Pete Ricketts is willing to push the legislature and they aren't great buddies either.

Also, remember that, while the Maine Dem trifecta can't gerrymander ME-02 due to 2/3rds majority language in the state constitution, they can just end EV-by-CD by a standard majority vote if the NE GOP tries to gerrymander NE-02.
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TML
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« Reply #8 on: November 13, 2020, 01:04:03 PM »

Remember that when 538 drew hundreds of redistricting maps a few years ago, one such map makes all three districts in NE strongly R-leaning:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/nebraska/#GOP

This map would only split one county, so it would meet the requirement to minimize county splits.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #9 on: November 13, 2020, 04:26:56 PM »

Part of the problem here is that Nebraska's legislature requires 2/3rds of a vote to end debate. Republicans did not meet that threshold, so they will need Democratic votes for any map (unless they nuke the filibuster like our Senate might). But yes, if they do that, it's pretty easy to split Douglas County. Send one district up north, one south, and leave NE-03 as is. Or you can put Lincoln in NE-03 and then you'd have three safely Republican seats.
NE-02 voted almost 10 points to the right of the nation back then. Given that it's now in line with the nation and could decide a presidential election, there's much more incentive to gerrymander it.

I also thought Nebraska had a non-partisan legislature. Is there a way to know if they are D or R?

There are but there are literal RINOs

https://johnmccollister.com/

"Republican Redefined "

"The Republican case for bold action on climate change"

"The Conservative Case for Unions"

Im sure this dude will totally split Omaha.
do they need the vote of the most liberal member of their caucus?

They would need to repeal the filibuster too, although it isn't fully non partisan, the non partisan nature of the NE legislature means they really don't care about the national GOP too much. It basically comes down to how much Pete Ricketts is willing to push the legislature and they aren't great buddies either.

Also, remember that, while the Maine Dem trifecta can't gerrymander ME-02 due to 2/3rds majority language in the state constitution, they can just end EV-by-CD by a standard majority vote if the NE GOP tries to gerrymander NE-02.
This is not an equal trade.  For NE, it is safe R statewide and if an election were to be such a Dem landslide that the state was in play, it would already be lost anyhow, regardless of NE.  But for ME, Clinton only narrowly won it.  While Biden improved, there's so reason to assume ME wouldn't be competitive statewide in a future election.  Making NE winner take all has no risk for Republicans, doin the same in ME carries some risk for Dems.
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« Reply #10 on: November 13, 2020, 11:46:46 PM »

Part of the problem here is that Nebraska's legislature requires 2/3rds of a vote to end debate. Republicans did not meet that threshold, so they will need Democratic votes for any map (unless they nuke the filibuster like our Senate might). But yes, if they do that, it's pretty easy to split Douglas County. Send one district up north, one south, and leave NE-03 as is. Or you can put Lincoln in NE-03 and then you'd have three safely Republican seats.
NE-02 voted almost 10 points to the right of the nation back then. Given that it's now in line with the nation and could decide a presidential election, there's much more incentive to gerrymander it.

I also thought Nebraska had a non-partisan legislature. Is there a way to know if they are D or R?

There are but there are literal RINOs

https://johnmccollister.com/

"Republican Redefined "

"The Republican case for bold action on climate change"

"The Conservative Case for Unions"

Im sure this dude will totally split Omaha.
do they need the vote of the most liberal member of their caucus?

They would need to repeal the filibuster too, although it isn't fully non partisan, the non partisan nature of the NE legislature means they really don't care about the national GOP too much. It basically comes down to how much Pete Ricketts is willing to push the legislature and they aren't great buddies either.

Also, remember that, while the Maine Dem trifecta can't gerrymander ME-02 due to 2/3rds majority language in the state constitution, they can just end EV-by-CD by a standard majority vote if the NE GOP tries to gerrymander NE-02.
This is not an equal trade.  For NE, it is safe R statewide and if an election were to be such a Dem landslide that the state was in play, it would already be lost anyhow, regardless of NE.  But for ME, Clinton only narrowly won it.  While Biden improved, there's so reason to assume ME wouldn't be competitive statewide in a future election.  Making NE winner take all has no risk for Republicans, doin the same in ME carries some risk for Dems.

It's not equal, per se, but it's definitely better for Democrats to have Maine be winner take all than the way it is now. At least until 2028, which is the relevant date here, odds are good that the Democrats will be substantial favorites to carry the state, so it would make sense as a tit for tat retaliation, even if the tat is smaller.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #11 on: November 14, 2020, 02:59:31 AM »

Part of the problem here is that Nebraska's legislature requires 2/3rds of a vote to end debate. Republicans did not meet that threshold, so they will need Democratic votes for any map (unless they nuke the filibuster like our Senate might). But yes, if they do that, it's pretty easy to split Douglas County. Send one district up north, one south, and leave NE-03 as is. Or you can put Lincoln in NE-03 and then you'd have three safely Republican seats.
NE-02 voted almost 10 points to the right of the nation back then. Given that it's now in line with the nation and could decide a presidential election, there's much more incentive to gerrymander it.

I also thought Nebraska had a non-partisan legislature. Is there a way to know if they are D or R?

There are but there are literal RINOs

https://johnmccollister.com/

"Republican Redefined "

"The Republican case for bold action on climate change"

"The Conservative Case for Unions"

Im sure this dude will totally split Omaha.
do they need the vote of the most liberal member of their caucus?

They would need to repeal the filibuster too, although it isn't fully non partisan, the non partisan nature of the NE legislature means they really don't care about the national GOP too much. It basically comes down to how much Pete Ricketts is willing to push the legislature and they aren't great buddies either.

Also, remember that, while the Maine Dem trifecta can't gerrymander ME-02 due to 2/3rds majority language in the state constitution, they can just end EV-by-CD by a standard majority vote if the NE GOP tries to gerrymander NE-02.
This is not an equal trade.  For NE, it is safe R statewide and if an election were to be such a Dem landslide that the state was in play, it would already be lost anyhow, regardless of NE.  But for ME, Clinton only narrowly won it.  While Biden improved, there's so reason to assume ME wouldn't be competitive statewide in a future election.  Making NE winner take all has no risk for Republicans, doin the same in ME carries some risk for Dems.

It's not equal, per se, but it's definitely better for Democrats to have Maine be winner take all than the way it is now. At least until 2028, which is the relevant date here, odds are good that the Democrats will be substantial favorites to carry the state, so it would make sense as a tit for tat retaliation, even if the tat is smaller.
ME is a very elastic state, I could see this backfiring on them spectacularly.
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #12 on: November 20, 2020, 01:41:36 PM »

For fun (even if it is officially non-partisan), here is my attempt at a state legislature gerrymander that tries to be relatively clean and not split counties too much and what not

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0636b71e-b9d4-4db6-b868-6a0c05b7e0bc

The "tipping point" district is district 18, which voted 58-35 Trump (R+15) and is located in the western Sarpy County outermost suburbs of Omaha

The "tipping point" for a 2/3 Republican majority is district 12, which voted 53-41 Clinton (R+11) and is located in the suburbs of Omaha (but is closer to downtown Omaha this time)

I guess a map like this means the legislature is Titanium R, and makes it more likely than not that Republicans hold 2/3 supermajorities
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Elizabeth Warren Beer Catastrophe
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« Reply #13 on: November 21, 2020, 08:27:49 PM »

What was the incentive for Nebraska to start splitting their electoral votes? It looks like it first began in 1996. Was one party or the other more interested in it?
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jimrtex
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« Reply #14 on: November 22, 2020, 08:18:26 AM »

What was the incentive for Nebraska to start splitting their electoral votes? It looks like it first began in 1996. Was one party or the other more interested in it?
Apparently it was because it was believed that campaigns would pay more attention, and recalled the 1968 primary with Bobby Kennedy.

Robert Kennedy and the 1968 Nebraska campaign trail

At the time, there were only about a dozen primaries and May 13 was a relatively early primary. West Virginia was the same day, but was not a preferential primary nor was Ohio a week earlier.

1968 Democratic Party presidential primaries (Wikipedia)

LBJ had withdrawn, and Humphrey was not running in the primaries. McCarthy was gaining in momentum, and Kennedy needed to cut into his popular support. If HHH was nominated in Chicago without running in the primaries there would probably be riots and Nixon would be elected.

(Youtube)

The elector change was proposed by a Democrat, and backed by those who wanted more attention by politicians. Trump did hold a campaign rally a week before the election.

Incidentally, the original proposal in Maine was to divide the state into four electoral districts, which was the normal scheme for states with district election of electors. Feel free to draw a 5-district Nebraska.
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #15 on: November 24, 2020, 11:44:29 AM »

What was the incentive for Nebraska to start splitting their electoral votes? It looks like it first began in 1996. Was one party or the other more interested in it?
Incidentally, the original proposal in Maine was to divide the state into four electoral districts, which was the normal scheme for states with district election of electors. Feel free to draw a 5-district Nebraska.

For fun, here is said 5 district Nebraska:



NE-01: Obama+10, Clinton+7, D+1
NE-02: McCain+12, Trump+17, R+11
NE-03: Obama+1, Trump+8, R+5
NE-04: McCain+31, Trump+51, R+25
NE-05: McCain+41, Trump+58, R+29

In terms of electoral votes, the downtown Omaha vote would be Likely D, and with trends borderline safe at this point. The Omaha suburbs district would still remain as Safe R, at least in the short and medium term.

The southeast Lincoln district might have been winnable for a Dem at some point in a landslide and was narrowly won by Obama in 08 (and might still be winnable?) but it is a very uphill battle.

The other 2 districts would of course be titanium R.
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