2020 Nebraska Redistricting

[Stuart98]

Both NE and ME should get rid of the split electoral votes, it's bad politics and will tear this country apart if other states try it.

I don't get this. What's so bad about the Maine and Nebraska method? We're already atrociously divided as it is, but why would adopting that method in more states make it worse? The way I see it, adopting that method increases the likelihood that presidential candidates, in the fall election, will campaign in more states. Nebraska would likely never be visited at all by Democrat nominees if the state didn't use the congressional district method. If California were to adopt the district method, then Republican nominees would have a good reason to spend a lot of time campaigning there, instead of writing the whole state off. What arguments outweigh that consideration?

Republicans could implement it in rapidly D trending states like Georgia and Texas, creating a situation where a Democrat could win the state but get a minority of electoral votes from it due to gerrymandering, further biasing the electoral college against Democrats. Democrats wouldn't be able to repeal it until they got a trifecta.

[Mr.Phips]

Both NE and ME should get rid of the split electoral votes, it's bad politics and will tear this country apart if other states try it.

I don't get this. What's so bad about the Maine and Nebraska method? We're already atrociously divided as it is, but why would adopting that method in more states make it worse? The way I see it, adopting that method increases the likelihood that presidential candidates, in the fall election, will campaign in more states. Nebraska would likely never be visited at all by Democrat nominees if the state didn't use the congressional district method. If California were to adopt the district method, then Republican nominees would have a good reason to spend a lot of time campaigning there, instead of writing the whole state off. What arguments outweigh that consideration?

Republicans could implement it in rapidly D trending states like Georgia and Texas, creating a situation where a Democrat could win the state but get a minority of electoral votes from it due to gerrymandering, further biasing the electoral college against Democrats. Democrats wouldn't be able to repeal it until they got a trifecta.

If Republicans somehow get a trifecta in Minnesota in 2022, they would be idiots to not pass this there.  It’s basically impossible for them to win a Presidential race in that state.

[Skill and Chance]

Both NE and ME should get rid of the split electoral votes, it's bad politics and will tear this country apart if other states try it.

I don't get this. What's so bad about the Maine and Nebraska method? We're already atrociously divided as it is, but why would adopting that method in more states make it worse? The way I see it, adopting that method increases the likelihood that presidential candidates, in the fall election, will campaign in more states. Nebraska would likely never be visited at all by Democrat nominees if the state didn't use the congressional district method. If California were to adopt the district method, then Republican nominees would have a good reason to spend a lot of time campaigning there, instead of writing the whole state off. What arguments outweigh that consideration?

California would at least be less egregious because at least the districts there are drawn by a commission.  The two problems are gerrymandering and VRA rights.  If a state with VRA district obligations does this, it gives that minority group dramatically less say in the EC outcome if that group's preferred candidate wins statewide.  The case would be stronger for having EV-by-CD in a state with VRA districts that routinely vote against the statewide winner, but let's be honest, that's not what's being considered here.  It's always the exact opposite scenario when this comes up!

[Brittain33]

Both NE and ME should get rid of the split electoral votes, it's bad politics and will tear this country apart if other states try it.

I don't get this. What's so bad about the Maine and Nebraska method? We're already atrociously divided as it is, but why would adopting that method in more states make it worse? The way I see it, adopting that method increases the likelihood that presidential candidates, in the fall election, will campaign in more states. Nebraska would likely never be visited at all by Democrat nominees if the state didn't use the congressional district method. If California were to adopt the district method, then Republican nominees would have a good reason to spend a lot of time campaigning there, instead of writing the whole state off. What arguments outweigh that consideration?

Imagine a Democrat winning the popular vote in Wisconsin and the EV going 6-4 in favor of the Republican because of gerrymandering and distribution of votes.

[Virginiá]

Why exactly does it matter if a presidential candidate visits more states these days? If you allocate by Congressional district, you're also incentivizing which districts and thus which voters these candidates cater to in their campaigns. No Republican is going to believe they have a chance at winning urban or inner ring suburban districts, and they will cater more towards their strongest bases of supports - exurban / rural districts. Vice versa for Democrats.

If anything, this just further orients political campaigns in the direction of existing trends and focuses their attention in, rather than out - the opposite of what is intended.

Also, you know, partisan gerrymandering and geographical biases. Why would we want to let those problems infect yet another part of the federal government? What benefits does this system have that are so important as to deepen existing structural biases that are already hurting trust & faith in our electoral system?

[Non Swing Voter]

I remember around the Bush years when Democrats were pushing to split electoral votes in Colorado the way ME/NE do.  At the time it was seen as a ploy to get a few electoral votes out of a safe Republican state.  If they had gotten their way they'd be regretting it now given that CO is essentially a safe D state...

[patzer]

I don't get this. What's so bad about the Maine and Nebraska method? We're already atrociously divided as it is, but why would adopting that method in more states make it worse? The way I see it, adopting that method increases the likelihood that presidential candidates, in the fall election, will campaign in more states. Nebraska would likely never be visited at all by Democrat nominees if the state didn't use the congressional district method. If California were to adopt the district method, then Republican nominees would have a good reason to spend a lot of time campaigning there, instead of writing the whole state off. What arguments outweigh that consideration?

Imagine a Democrat winning the popular vote in Wisconsin and the EV going 6-4 in favor of the Republican because of gerrymandering and distribution of votes.

I wonder if they could make it even worse than that. If they were to vary the Maine law a bit, and say that the candidate who wins the most congressional districts gets all of the EVs...

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Is Bacon running for Governor? It might explain why they didn't shore it up more

[Antonio the Sixth]

The new map is still a disgrace. Omaha should be kept with its near suburbs, not some weird exurban appendages. It's especially ridiculous since it barely even changes the partisanship of the district. It's just Republicans being petty assholes for the heck of it.

[Minnesota Mike]

Is Bacon running for Governor? It might explain why they didn't shore it up more

The reason for the odd lines in Sarpy are to include Bacon's house in NE-02, he is running for reelection. The fantasy redistricting that many imagined for Nebraska was never a realistic alternative , rural legislators were just as against it as were urban legislators.

[Minnesota Mike]

Congressional and legislative maps passed another procedural hurdle today easily. Final passage is expected Thursday morning. Not sure why but in NE the legislature has to pass things three times before bills go to the governor.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Congressional and legislative maps passed another procedural hurdle today easily. Final passage is expected Thursday morning. Not sure why but in NE the legislature has to pass things three times before bills go to the governor.

In Nebraska there is a unicameral legislature. That's my best explanation.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Is Bacon running for Governor? It might explain why they didn't shore it up more

The reason for the odd lines in Sarpy are to include Bacon's house in NE-02, he is running for reelection. The fantasy redistricting that many imagined for Nebraska was never a realistic alternative , rural legislators were just as against it as were urban legislators.

They couldn't even make it like Biden +3 or something like that without getting ugly?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is Bacon running for Governor? It might explain why they didn't shore it up more

The reason for the odd lines in Sarpy are to include Bacon's house in NE-02, he is running for reelection. The fantasy redistricting that many imagined for Nebraska was never a realistic alternative , rural legislators were just as against it as were urban legislators.

They couldn't even make it like Biden +3 or something like that without getting ugly?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/aac0c00a-1082-44ca-9a8e-f8478215b0b3
This is what you need for a Biden+3 seat that keeps Douglas County whole.

[politicallefty]

I think the bigger complaint is that NE-02 adding rural Saunders County was a blatant effort to keep the district from moving to the left. Due to urban/suburban growth around Omaha and rural population loss across most of the state, NE-02 was overpopulated by about 47k. All of Douglas County and the most Republican precincts in Sarpy would have moved the district a full point to the left. I wouldn't call Nebraska a gerrymander, but Republicans did put their thumb on the scale. A fair map would almost certainly have put Douglas County with eastern Sarpy.

[politicallefty]

I wanted to see if I could do a competitive gerrymander and create two Biden districts. It turns out it can be done (which I'm almost certain has been impossible since probably 2008). For obvious reasons, I chose to call it a competitive gerrymander and not a Democratic gerrymander.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/4879655d-9386-42a6-97ab-95f4df4128fd

Just because I could, I left NE-02 as a Douglas-Sarpy district, but this version has all of Sarpy and excludes some very Democratic precincts in Omaha. Interestingly, this NE-01 is probably the better district for Democrats. This NE-02 is heavily suburban and only recently shifted away from Republicans, at least at the presidential level. In the 2018 statewide races, NE-01 leaned Democratic while NE-02 leaned Republican. In parentheses, you can see the 2016 numbers.

NE-01: Biden 49.1-48.6 (Trump 49.4-44.4)
NE-02: Biden 49.1-48.7 (Trump 51.8-42.1)
NE-03: Trump 77.0-21.1 (Trump 76.2-18.7)

Does anyone think Democrats would've relented on splitting Douglas County in return for this map?

[Minnesota Mike]

Congressional and Legislative maps pass the final vote in the legislature. Just need the Governors signature.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/stoddardOWH/status/1443614593377574921

[Canis]

Did Biden win the new NE-02?

[Roll Roons]

Did Biden win the new NE-02?

I think it was around Biden +6, while NE-01 was Trump +11.

[Oryxslayer]

Did Biden win the new NE-02?

I think it was around Biden +6, while NE-01 was Trump +11.

New is Biden+6.4, old Biden+6.6. That doesn't seem like a major change, but the GOP couldn't get a major change without cutting Omaha. the second needed to shed population, which would make the seat bluer. The only way to preserve the current lean while dropping Republican parts of Sarpy and not cutting Douglas was add Saunders.

Of course this is not the GOP's preferred plan, since Bacon clearly wanted all of his support network in Sarpy. Bacon now has to likely relocate back into the seat and  did not gain the military bases in the eastern side of the county.

[BoiseBoy]

Did Biden win the new NE-02?

NE-01: Trump +11.0 (+4.1 D shift from old lines)
NE-02: Biden +6.3 (+0.3 R shift from old lines)
NE-03: Trump +51.8 (+1.4 D shift from old lines)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tbh, one good thing about this map is that they’ll prolly always be at least 1 competitive seat in NE this decade. If things stay as they are, NE-2 will remain competitive but if NE-2 swings hard left, NE-1 has prolly become competitive since it now takes in swingy suburban Sarpy + Lancaster

[Biden his time]

Wow, the Republican Party is dummymandering!

NE-1

2016 Presidential: R+22.2 (37.7% D, 59.9% R)
2020 Presidential: R+11.0 (43.3% D, 53.3% R)

Trend Map 2016 - 2020 (Red = D, Blue = R)



Image Link

It's crazy to think that there's a possibility that Nebraska gives two electoral votes to the Democratic candidate in 2028 or so.

[Oryxslayer]

Right on cue, Bacon is angry. I would be to if specifically my desires were ignored in the name of compromise, but that's how the cookie crumbles in a swing seat.