2020 Nebraska Redistricting

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/fredmknapp/status/1439020057640804355

Interesting.  I guess Dems are holding out for a Biden +10ish NE-02 with all of Douglas?

[Oryxslayer]

Interesting.  I guess Dems are holding out for a Biden +10ish NE-02 with all of Douglas?

I mean the Dem plan with all of Douglas + best Dem precincts in Sarpy is only Biden by 9. I suspect we end up with a something similar to present, with Douglas reunited - that's the dealbreaker - and wester Sarpy.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/stoddardOWH/status/1441475514309300229

[Roll Roons]

Whipped up an approximation:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/a59eda15-5049-4499-b18c-1e20f9fc024e

NE-01 is Trump +11, NE-02 is Biden +6 and NE-03 is Trump +51.

[politicallefty]

It's not terrible, but it just seems stupid not to just have a Douglas-Sarpy district. It also seems like if trends continue NE-01 could be in play under the right circumstances.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Interesting.  I guess Dems are holding out for a Biden +10ish NE-02 with all of Douglas?

I mean the Dem plan with all of Douglas + best Dem precincts in Sarpy is only Biden by 9. I suspect we end up with a something similar to present, with Douglas reunited - that's the dealbreaker - and wester Sarpy.

You weren't wrong.

[Nyvin]

I still wouldn't say NE-1 is safe for the decade.   NE-2 would be trending D as well.

[Oryxslayer]

Links to the official site, the proposal is AM36 CONG21-39002 (Linehan) so you have to scroll down a bit.

NE-02 on it's own.




DRA Link. Functionally, this seat is about 0.5% more Biden than the previously proposed plan, and 0.2% more Trump than currently.

[GALeftist]

So basically an identical NE-02 from a partisan perspective.

[Oryxslayer]

So basically an identical NE-02 from a partisan perspective.

Yep, remarkable really that both Nebraska and Maine have split delegations so both districts are remaining functionally the same, with adjustments for growth.

[Gass3268]

So basically an identical NE-02 from a partisan perspective.

Yep, remarkable really that both Nebraska and Maine have split delegations so both districts are remaining functionally the same, with adjustments for growth.

Plus Democrats get to claim they kept Douglas County whole and Republicans can claim the partisanship of NE-02 did not change much from their initial proposal.

[politicallefty]

That's clearly the reason Republicans wanted to add Saunders County. It's a minimal change in the partisan balance and Democrats weren't going to let through anything more than a minimal change. On the first page, I mentioned that I drew a Douglas-Sarpy district with the most Republican precincts of Sarpy. Since the current district is overpopulated, it would have pushed NE-02 a full point better on the margin for Biden, from 6.6% to 7.6%. This proposal seems to effectively be a compromise, though I am surprised to see that Republicans are letting NE-01 drop to Trump+11. That might also be unavoidable if they're keeping the rest of Sarpy and all of Lancaster together and keeping a reasonably coherent district. Splitting Lancaster was probably another dealbreaker for Democrats.

It's also possible that any major changes to NE-02 could have resulted in a ballot initiative, as Nebraska does have initiative and referenda.

[Oryxslayer]

What's most interesting I feel is that Bacon's house in Papillion is outside the district - something that matters less in suburban Metros - and so is his military base around the air force base. Bacon almost certainly wanted a full Sarpy for his own personal desires.

[walleye26]

So if the maps passed the first round, do they go to the Governor’s desk for signature?

[Devils30]

Both NE and ME should get rid of the split electoral votes, it's bad politics and will tear this country apart if other states try it.

[Minnesota Mike]

So if the maps passed the first round, do they go to the Governor’s desk for signature?

I read there are still a few steps left, final passage should happen next Thursday and then off to the Governor. Theoretically the map could change but that sounds like it is very unlikely.

[Oryxslayer]

The AM37 LEG21-39005 Legislative plan passes without filibuster. Looks like there's a new D seat in Lincoln and better lines in Sarpy. Omaha lines change, looks like mostly in favor of incumbents. Not huge concessions, but enough.

[Skill and Chance]

Both NE and ME should get rid of the split electoral votes, it's bad politics and will tear this country apart if other states try it.

Agreed.  It's Pandora's Box for democracy.  If NE and ME keep splitting their votes regularly, someone will eventually try this in a large, urbanized state with gerrymandered CD lines.

[Mr.Phips]

Both NE and ME should get rid of the split electoral votes, it's bad politics and will tear this country apart if other states try it.

Agreed.  It's Pandora's Box for democracy.  If NE and ME keep splitting their votes regularly, someone will eventually try this in a large, urbanized state with gerrymandered CD lines.

That might finally wake Dems up regarding the importance of winning governorships and state legislatures in key swing states.

[Virginiá]

Both NE and ME should get rid of the split electoral votes, it's bad politics and will tear this country apart if other states try it.

Agreed.  It's Pandora's Box for democracy.  If NE and ME keep splitting their votes regularly, someone will eventually try this in a large, urbanized state with gerrymandered CD lines.

That might finally wake Dems up regarding the importance of winning governorships and state legislatures in key swing states.

They did win key governorships in a number of swing states, though. WI, MI, PA, NC, NV. ME, MN as well. Democrats suffer more at the state level due to the fact that there are more Republican-leaning states than not, and hyper-polarization means there is usually a hard ceiling for many of these states. Democrats seemed to learn a number of lessons in the Trump era, but the fact is, with the country being the way it is right now, they can only do so well in otherwise hostile territory. Money, campaigning and organizing only gets you so far. After a certain point, it doesn't matter how much of either you have/do, it's not going to win you a state legislature if a comfortable majority of the state hates your guts.

[Skill and Chance]

Both NE and ME should get rid of the split electoral votes, it's bad politics and will tear this country apart if other states try it.

Agreed.  It's Pandora's Box for democracy.  If NE and ME keep splitting their votes regularly, someone will eventually try this in a large, urbanized state with gerrymandered CD lines.

That might finally wake Dems up regarding the importance of winning governorships and state legislatures in key swing states.

They did win key governorships in a number of swing states, though. WI, MI, PA, NC, NV. ME, MN as well. Democrats suffer more at the state level due to the fact that there are more Republican-leaning states than not, and hyper-polarization means there is usually a hard ceiling for many of these states. Democrats seemed to learn a number of lessons in the Trump era, but the fact is, with the country being the way it is right now, they can only do so well in otherwise hostile territory. Money, campaigning and organizing only gets you so far. After a certain point, it doesn't matter how much of either you have/do, it's not going to win you a state legislature if a comfortable majority of the state hates your guts.

Another big factor is that with a highly gerrymandered and/or highly geographically biased map, one side eventually just stops seriously trying to win control until conditions change.  This was certainly the case with Republicans at the US House level during much of 1954-1992 and in Southern state legislatures until the Bush Jr. era.  You can see similar things today with Democrats just giving up on winning state legislative chambers in states where they often win the governorship and presidential elections (WI,MI,PA, etc.).  Had they failed to flip the US House in 2018, it might have even happened at that level.

[Mr.Phips]

Both NE and ME should get rid of the split electoral votes, it's bad politics and will tear this country apart if other states try it.

Agreed.  It's Pandora's Box for democracy.  If NE and ME keep splitting their votes regularly, someone will eventually try this in a large, urbanized state with gerrymandered CD lines.

That might finally wake Dems up regarding the importance of winning governorships and state legislatures in key swing states.

They did win key governorships in a number of swing states, though. WI, MI, PA, NC, NV. ME, MN as well. Democrats suffer more at the state level due to the fact that there are more Republican-leaning states than not, and hyper-polarization means there is usually a hard ceiling for many of these states. Democrats seemed to learn a number of lessons in the Trump era, but the fact is, with the country being the way it is right now, they can only do so well in otherwise hostile territory. Money, campaigning and organizing only gets you so far. After a certain point, it doesn't matter how much of either you have/do, it's not going to win you a state legislature if a comfortable majority of the state hates your guts.

Another big factor is that with a highly gerrymandered and/or highly geographically biased map, one side eventually just stops seriously trying to win control until conditions change.  This was certainly the case with Republicans at the US House level during much of 1954-1992 and in Southern state legislatures until the Bush Jr. era.  You can see similar things today with Democrats just giving up on winning state legislative chambers in states where they often win the governorship and presidential elections (WI,MI,PA, etc.).  Had they failed to flip the US House in 2018, it might have even happened at that level.

If Dems couldn’t even come close to winning the legislative chambers in PA and WI in a year as good as 2018, they never will absent a substantial change in the district lines.  PA is a possibility in the next Republican President’s midterm (either 2026 or 2030) due to Dems very likely to get much more favorable lines there due to control of the state Supreme Court.

[lfromnj]

Both NE and ME should get rid of the split electoral votes, it's bad politics and will tear this country apart if other states try it.

Agreed.  It's Pandora's Box for democracy.  If NE and ME keep splitting their votes regularly, someone will eventually try this in a large, urbanized state with gerrymandered CD lines.

That might finally wake Dems up regarding the importance of winning governorships and state legislatures in key swing states.

They did win key governorships in a number of swing states, though. WI, MI, PA, NC, NV. ME, MN as well. Democrats suffer more at the state level due to the fact that there are more Republican-leaning states than not, and hyper-polarization means there is usually a hard ceiling for many of these states. Democrats seemed to learn a number of lessons in the Trump era, but the fact is, with the country being the way it is right now, they can only do so well in otherwise hostile territory. Money, campaigning and organizing only gets you so far. After a certain point, it doesn't matter how much of either you have/do, it's not going to win you a state legislature if a comfortable majority of the state hates your guts.

Another big factor is that with a highly gerrymandered and/or highly geographically biased map, one side eventually just stops seriously trying to win control until conditions change.  This was certainly the case with Republicans at the US House level during much of 1954-1992 and in Southern state legislatures until the Bush Jr. era.  You can see similar things today with Democrats just giving up on winning state legislative chambers in states where they often win the governorship and presidential elections (WI,MI,PA, etc.).  Had they failed to flip the US House in 2018, it might have even happened at that level.

If Dems couldn’t even come close to winning the legislative chambers in PA and WI in a year as good as 2018, they never will absent a substantial change in the district lines.  PA is a possibility in the next Republican President’s midterm (either 2026 or 2030) due to Dems very likely to get much more favorable lines there due to control of the state Supreme Court.

Pretty sure Biden won either 24 or 25 state senate districts.

State senate in PA can get fairly decent for Democrats even in an actual fair map due to the mid sized cities in larger counties like Lancaster/Berks and Erie all voting Dem. Statehouse and congress is pretty bad for them though.

[MarkD]

Both NE and ME should get rid of the split electoral votes, it's bad politics and will tear this country apart if other states try it.

I don't get this. What's so bad about the Maine and Nebraska method? We're already atrociously divided as it is, but why would adopting that method in more states make it worse? The way I see it, adopting that method increases the likelihood that presidential candidates, in the fall election, will campaign in more states. Nebraska would likely never be visited at all by Democrat nominees if the state didn't use the congressional district method. If California were to adopt the district method, then Republican nominees would have a good reason to spend a lot of time campaigning there, instead of writing the whole state off. What arguments outweigh that consideration?

[Mr.Phips]

Both NE and ME should get rid of the split electoral votes, it's bad politics and will tear this country apart if other states try it.

Agreed.  It's Pandora's Box for democracy.  If NE and ME keep splitting their votes regularly, someone will eventually try this in a large, urbanized state with gerrymandered CD lines.

That might finally wake Dems up regarding the importance of winning governorships and state legislatures in key swing states.

They did win key governorships in a number of swing states, though. WI, MI, PA, NC, NV. ME, MN as well. Democrats suffer more at the state level due to the fact that there are more Republican-leaning states than not, and hyper-polarization means there is usually a hard ceiling for many of these states. Democrats seemed to learn a number of lessons in the Trump era, but the fact is, with the country being the way it is right now, they can only do so well in otherwise hostile territory. Money, campaigning and organizing only gets you so far. After a certain point, it doesn't matter how much of either you have/do, it's not going to win you a state legislature if a comfortable majority of the state hates your guts.

Another big factor is that with a highly gerrymandered and/or highly geographically biased map, one side eventually just stops seriously trying to win control until conditions change.  This was certainly the case with Republicans at the US House level during much of 1954-1992 and in Southern state legislatures until the Bush Jr. era.  You can see similar things today with Democrats just giving up on winning state legislative chambers in states where they often win the governorship and presidential elections (WI,MI,PA, etc.).  Had they failed to flip the US House in 2018, it might have even happened at that level.

If Dems couldn’t even come close to winning the legislative chambers in PA and WI in a year as good as 2018, they never will absent a substantial change in the district lines.  PA is a possibility in the next Republican President’s midterm (either 2026 or 2030) due to Dems very likely to get much more favorable lines there due to control of the state Supreme Court.

Pretty sure Biden won either 24 or 25 state senate districts.

25, but one was by the barest of margins (Pittsburgh suburbs) in an ancestrally heavily Republican district that would likely not vote Dem at the state legislative level in a normal turnout election.  Another (the Erie seat) has a very strong Republican incumbent who is basically impossible to beat.