2020 Nebraska Redistricting

[Oryxslayer]

Ooh, an official dummymander out in the wild. Don't see that too often.

NE-02 in the GOP map would still be Biden +6 in 2020, Trump +3 in 2016, and NE-01 would be Trump +11 in 2020, Trump +18 in 2016. As a liberal, I would be so owned if Republicans passed that map.

Yeah those are some of the most GOP parts of Douglas removed from the county, though admittingly they are less Republican than Saunders. The Dem map for comparison can only be about Biden+9.

[Nyvin]

Ooh, an official dummymander out in the wild. Don't see that too often.

NE-02 in the GOP map would still be Biden +6 in 2020, Trump +3 in 2016, and NE-01 would be Trump +11 in 2020, Trump +18 in 2016. As a liberal, I would be so owned if Republicans passed that map.

I was thinking the same thing, I was expecting them to put part of Douglas with NE-3.

In that map NE-1 has all of Lancaster still along with a dem chunk of Douglas.   That doesn't seem like a great R gerrymander.

Saunders is only 22k people, that hardly changes anything really.   The main part of NE-2 that changed was taking all of Sarpy.

[BoiseBoy]

That Republican map really makes no sense. It's not the gerrymander they want it to be. NE-02 still voted for Biden. I have a strong feeling we'll see something more akin to the second map.

Here's a closer look at the GOP-proposed NE-02, which is overpopulated by about 4300 people:
https://twitter.com/Adam_Morfeld/status/1435631756175155203

[ProgressiveModerate]

Nebraska is a bit of a weird state for the GOP to gerrymander.

Geography makes it hard to balance all 3 districts at about Trump + 20 without doing something really nasty. At the same time, it's hard to make a district that cracks Biden + 10.

Also important to note the GOP doesn't have full control in Nebraska because they lack a supermajority, meaning maps need "Dem" support (there's 17 registered Dems even though the legistlature is technically non-partisan).

I think the most likely map is a little change map that has a slight Dem slant thanks to favorable geography.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I tried to recreate both the GOP & Dem plans to the best to my ability. See my post below for the maps.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/99750f11-f972-4706-ba3a-6a5295ea2727

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3074bcb5-f079-44a4-bf53-2aea1486c47d

Election stats for the GOP plan:

2020:

NE-1: Trump +7.8%

NE-2:  Biden +2.6%

NE-3: Trump +51.6%

2016:

NE-1: Trump +14.3%

NE-2: Trump +6.6%

NE-3: Trump +53.4%

The Dem plan Election stats:


2020:


NE-1: Trump +12.9%

NE-2: Biden +9.4%

NE-3: Trump +53.2%

2016:


NE-1: Trump +19.5%

NE-2: Biden +0.2%

NE-3: Trump +54.9%

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Almost GOP Plan


2020


2016


Dem Plan

2020


2016

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nebraska is a bit of a weird state for the GOP to gerrymander.

Geography makes it hard to balance all 3 districts at about Trump + 20 without doing something really nasty. At the same time, it's hard to make a district that cracks Biden + 10.

Also important to note the GOP doesn't have full control in Nebraska because they lack a supermajority, meaning maps need "Dem" support (there's 17 registered Dems even though the legistlature is technically non-partisan).

I think the most likely map is a little change map that has a slight Dem slant thanks to favorable geography.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/726c1da6-5fe6-49ce-8138-94d38e87152a

This is what you need to do for three safe R seats efficiently distributing the vote.

[Oryxslayer]

GOP Plan

You can see the precinct lines of NE02 in the zoomed image, I think this is close to correct, though it looks like there is a sizable pop discrepancy. It's Biden+6.

[DaleCooper]

Putting parts of Omaha into the same district as Lincoln is just a senseless risk on the part of the GOP. Republicans are still competitive in Omaha and last decade's Biden-won NE-02 was held by a Republican congressman, so it's not like they even have to create a Democratic vote sink. I think the parties are just a bit delusional about their ability to hang on to communities that are trending away from them.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Putting parts of Omaha into the same district as Lincoln is just a senseless risk on the part of the GOP. Republicans are still competitive in Omaha and last decade's Biden-won NE-02 was held by a Republican congressman, so it's not like they even have to create a Democratic vote sink. I think the parties are just a bit delusional about their ability to hang on to communities that are trending away from them.

Part of me is wanting the GOP to get its map through because of the sheer dummymander potential, the other part of me wants the state to have better districts.

[Oryxslayer]

Putting parts of Omaha into the same district as Lincoln is just a senseless risk on the part of the GOP. Republicans are still competitive in Omaha and last decade's Biden-won NE-02 was held by a Republican congressman, so it's not like they even have to create a Democratic vote sink. I think the parties are just a bit delusional about their ability to hang on to communities that are trending away from them.

Part of me is wanting the GOP to get its map through because of the sheer dummymander potential, the other part of me wants the state to have better districts.

I bet we see Jen Day go to Congress at some point if the GOP lines get implemented. She's the "Democratic" legislator who won a tight election in 2020 to flip a seat in Trump-aligned western Sarpy. Her profile is awfully similar to Sharice Davids's background (except not LGBTQ), and party insiders love running up-and-comers with a story that has to worked before.

[Vosem]

I find the confidence with which people here and on Twitter are suggesting that a 2020 Trump+double-digit seat is a "dummymander" to be very weird. Literally sixteen points right of the United States; this is only a dummymander in a scenario where Republicans are getting apocalyptically destroyed in a way they haven't been since 1974, or if there's a huge realignment such that literally every map enacted this cycle becomes a "dummymander".

At the same time I have no idea why they're drawing incredibly tortured lines to move NE-2 from Biden+7 to (...checks notes) Biden+6? This plan is "status quo but with way uglier lines for some reason".

[Skill and Chance]

Putting parts of Omaha into the same district as Lincoln is just a senseless risk on the part of the GOP. Republicans are still competitive in Omaha and last decade's Biden-won NE-02 was held by a Republican congressman, so it's not like they even have to create a Democratic vote sink. I think the parties are just a bit delusional about their ability to hang on to communities that are trending away from them.

Part of me is wanting the GOP to get its map through because of the sheer dummymander potential, the other part of me wants the state to have better districts.

I bet we see Jen Day go to Congress at some point if the GOP lines get implemented. She's the "Democratic" legislator who won a tight election in 2020 to flip a seat in Trump-aligned western Sarpy. Her profile is awfully similar to Sharice Davids's background (except not LGBTQ), and party insiders love running up-and-comers with a story that has to worked before.

It would be hilarious if this map goes forward and this is the 2028 presidential result

[Stuart98]

I find the confidence with which people here and on Twitter are suggesting that a 2020 Trump+double-digit seat is a "dummymander" to be very weird. Literally sixteen points right of the United States; this is only a dummymander in a scenario where Republicans are getting apocalyptically destroyed in a way they haven't been since 1974, or if there's a huge realignment such that literally every map enacted this cycle becomes a "dummymander".

At the same time I have no idea why they're drawing incredibly tortured lines to move NE-2 from Biden+7 to (...checks notes) Biden+6? This plan is "status quo but with way uglier lines for some reason".

Ask Arkansas Democrats how drawing a map that assumes a 7 point swing over four years to the opposing party won't be repeated ends up.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c43fc8c3-f47a-4752-9b47-00799958dec3
I drew up a legislature map.

[Nyvin]

I find the confidence with which people here and on Twitter are suggesting that a 2020 Trump+double-digit seat is a "dummymander" to be very weird. Literally sixteen points right of the United States; this is only a dummymander in a scenario where Republicans are getting apocalyptically destroyed in a way they haven't been since 1974, or if there's a huge realignment such that literally every map enacted this cycle becomes a "dummymander".

At the same time I have no idea why they're drawing incredibly tortured lines to move NE-2 from Biden+7 to (...checks notes) Biden+6? This plan is "status quo but with way uglier lines for some reason".

The GOP will be fine in 2022, but beyond that you can't really say it has zero risk.  An 11 point margin doesn't last forever.

[BoiseBoy]

It is just astounding that Nebraska Republicans, who have the 9th most Republican congressional district in the nation (one that is configured such that the remainder of the state will end up being Trump +3) and two much more vulnerable incumbents in the remainder of the state, decided not to meaningfully dilute the district. This is in league with the Arkansas Democrats as one of the biggest gerrymandering self-owns in American history.

From a fairness perspective, I am really happy they didn't dilute it as they could have. Bacon will likely survive 2022 regardless of which of the maps is implemented.

[Vosem]

I find the confidence with which people here and on Twitter are suggesting that a 2020 Trump+double-digit seat is a "dummymander" to be very weird. Literally sixteen points right of the United States; this is only a dummymander in a scenario where Republicans are getting apocalyptically destroyed in a way they haven't been since 1974, or if there's a huge realignment such that literally every map enacted this cycle becomes a "dummymander".

At the same time I have no idea why they're drawing incredibly tortured lines to move NE-2 from Biden+7 to (...checks notes) Biden+6? This plan is "status quo but with way uglier lines for some reason".

Ask Arkansas Democrats how drawing a map that assumes a 7 point swing over four years to the opposing party won't be repeated ends up.

They were criticized at the time for drawing four double-digit-McCain seats! Also, of course large-scale realignments are possible, but they're useless to plan for because they're so unpredictable (and you'll get rewarded elsewhere).

If you take this attitude, you can call virtually any map in the country a potential dummymander. NE-1 under this map is more Republican than New Mexico is Democratic, but you still see concerns about a 3-0 map in NM being a dummymander getting ridiculed. (And rightly so: a 3-0 map in NM would probably not be a dummymander.)

[GALeftist]

Putting parts of Omaha into the same district as Lincoln is just a senseless risk on the part of the GOP. Republicans are still competitive in Omaha and last decade's Biden-won NE-02 was held by a Republican congressman, so it's not like they even have to create a Democratic vote sink. I think the parties are just a bit delusional about their ability to hang on to communities that are trending away from them.

Part of me is wanting the GOP to get its map through because of the sheer dummymander potential, the other part of me wants the state to have better districts.

I bet we see Jen Day go to Congress at some point if the GOP lines get implemented. She's the "Democratic" legislator who won a tight election in 2020 to flip a seat in Trump-aligned western Sarpy. Her profile is awfully similar to Sharice Davids's background (except not LGBTQ), and party insiders love running up-and-comers with a story that has to worked before.

It would be hilarious if this map goes forward and this is the 2028 presidential result

The year is 2028. This is the Presidential result:

A contingent election is triggered in the House. Democrats hold majorities in every state they won, including Minnesota, thanks to a third-party spoiler in a usually R district, but excluding Georgia, which has been gerrymandered by the Republicans. This brings them to 22 delegations. Alaska's new voting system and a poor R campaign has elected an Independent who caucuses with Democrats despite the state voting R. Nevada Democrats drew a durable map, and entrenched incumbents have held onto their 3-1 majority. A failed gerrymander in Texas has let the Democrats get away with a narrow 20-18 majority in Texas. Finally, Nebraska's two Democratic representatives cast the 26th vote for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to be the 47th President of the United States.

[Oryxslayer]

GOP proposed Legislature Map. Looks like this was the focus of their attention, given that the lines are more creative here - when possible. To avoid moving more than one district across the state there are consistent pop shortages - smaller than the legal deviation threshold of course - in rural seats and pop excesses in urban ones.







Speaking of Jen Day, her seat is where the new district moved to. Theoretically the more concise seat might be more winnable than currently, but the most dem/least GOP precincts are removed and put in the migrating seat. A draw-out might lead to an early Congressional run, if the GOP plan gets passed.

[Nyvin]

So it looks like they're keeping the districts inside the respective counties for the most part, other than population equalization.

Douglas, Sarpy, and Lancaster counties actually have 56% of the state's entire population.  

I know it's a big leap, but assuming those three counties continue to trend left at a good pace, isn't it possible Democrats win a majority on the legislature?

If they do then that just shows how absolutely horrible geography is for Republicans in Nebraska.

Edit - Just did the math for fun; Douglas + Sarpy + Lancaster is 27.42 seats, a majority is 25.   

There's also the Grand Island seat that's trending D in Hall County too.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So it looks like they're keeping the districts inside the respective counties for the most part, other than population equalization.

Douglas, Sarpy, and Lancaster counties actually have 56% of the state's entire population.  

I know it's a big leap, but assuming those three counties continue to trend left at a good pace, isn't it possible Democrats win a majority on the legislature?

If they do then that just shows how absolutely horrible geography is for Republicans in Nebraska.

Edit - Just did the math for fun; Douglas + Sarpy + Lancaster is 27.42 seats, a majority is 25.   

There's also the Grand Island seat that's trending D in Hall County too.

Prarie/Mountain democrats when

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/ScottBlake/status/1436419440334286854

Not saying it can't happen but in the entire history of the state Douglas county has never been split in congressional redistricting.

[Skill and Chance]

Bump. 

The "Republican" map that puts part of downtown Omaha with Lincoln in NE-01 and still has a Biden +6 NE-02 advanced out of committee today on a 5/4 vote. 

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/fredmknapp/status/1439020057640804355