Hawaii apparently had the largest Pro Trump swing in the nation

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326736725205520385


Looks like the pro incumbent meme is still going strong

[Ferguson97]

Hawaii loves incumbents
Titanium Lean D Minnesota
Titanium Tilt R Florida

Every meme was correct

[Devils30]

Trump had a tipping point 3-4% to the right of the popular vote once again but also made some gains in meaningless places like SoCal and the Bronx.

[Catalyst138]

Hawaii loves incumbents
Titanium Lean D Minnesota
Titanium Tilt R Florida

Every meme was correct

Well except for “Georgia is fool’s gold”

[lfromnj]

I mean the FL meme wasn't correct, it ended up as Trump +3 which isn't really Titanium Tilt R

I wanted a coin flip.

[pppolitics]

>largest Pro Trump swing in the nation

Isn't that New York?

[Roronoa D. Law]

Hawaii loves incumbents
Titanium Lean D Minnesota
Titanium Tilt R Florida

Every meme was correct

Don't forget the Angry New Hampshire Women! And boy were they angry this year. Shaheen is up 15 points against a privileged man who dared to challenge her.

[Roll Roons]

>largest Pro Trump swing in the nation

Isn't that New York?

Probably not. Absentees haven't been counted in NY (because it's a perfect model of incompetence in governing), and those will be overwhelmingly Democratic.

[Non Swing Voter]

Trump really brought out low prosperity voters.  When we saw those ridiculous numbers out of Texas we similarly assumed Trump was screwed but turns out he brought out his people as well as the haters.  Bad news for Republicans is that they're not gonna turn out in 2022 but the college educated whites Trump pissed off will.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Trump really brought out low prosperity voters.  When we saw those ridiculous numbers out of Texas we similarly assumed Trump was screwed but turns out he brought out his people as well as the haters.  Bad news for Republicans is that they're not gonna turn out in 2022 but the college educated whites Trump pissed off will.

Midterms tend to not go well for the President's party.

[Calthrina950]

Trump really brought out low prosperity voters.  When we saw those ridiculous numbers out of Texas we similarly assumed Trump was screwed but turns out he brought out his people as well as the haters.  Bad news for Republicans is that they're not gonna turn out in 2022 but the college educated whites Trump pissed off will.

It is true that college-educated white voters have tended to have the highest levels of turnout among the electorate, but Trump will not be President in 2022. Joe Biden will be, and I see no reason why 2022 would be different from 1994, 2006, 2010, 2014, or 2018 in terms of how things play out. And as it is, with the exceptionally high turnout and anti-Trump enthusiasm this year, the Democrats still did poorly downballot.

[SN2903]

Trump really brought out low prosperity voters.  When we saw those ridiculous numbers out of Texas we similarly assumed Trump was screwed but turns out he brought out his people as well as the haters.  Bad news for Republicans is that they're not gonna turn out in 2022 but the college educated whites Trump pissed off will.

LOL Dems are going to do terrible in 22 and 24. They are losing voters with every demographic basically.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump really brought out low prosperity voters.  When we saw those ridiculous numbers out of Texas we similarly assumed Trump was screwed but turns out he brought out his people as well as the haters.  Bad news for Republicans is that they're not gonna turn out in 2022 but the college educated whites Trump pissed off will.

Democrats said that after 2008 too and despite the fact that Bush left with approvals in the 20s and the GOP being utterly decimated in 2006 and 2008 , in two years they came roaring back.

The GOP wont even need a particularly good year in 2022, heck its very possible that Republicans would have a majority based on redistricting alone come 2022 so Democrats will have to make gains in order to win the House

[Democratic Hawk]

Trump really brought out low prosperity voters.  When we saw those ridiculous numbers out of Texas we similarly assumed Trump was screwed but turns out he brought out his people as well as the haters.  Bad news for Republicans is that they're not gonna turn out in 2022 but the college educated whites Trump pissed off will.

LOL Dems are going to do terrible in 22 and 24. They are losing voters with every demographic basically.

Trump didn't do as well as GWB among Latinos in 2004 and received roughly the same % of African American voters as GWB. And we all know what distinguishes 2004 from 1992, 1996, 2000, 2008, 2012. 2016 and 2020.

Yet Trump has decisively lost re-election. Surely, not a sign that Democrats are losing voters with every demographic.

[Democratic Hawk]

>largest Pro Trump swing in the nation

Isn't that New York?

Probably not. Absentees haven't been counted in NY (because it's a perfect model of incompetence in governing), and those will be overwhelmingly Democratic.

NBC estimate that 2.82 million votes are yet to be reported from New York including :

Bronx (73.7% reporting)
Brooklyn (76.9 reporting)
Manhattan (56.9% reporting)
Queens (62.9% reporting)
Staten Island (88.2% reporting)

Certainly think absentee ballots will be overwhelmingly Democratic in New York City (Biden lead 1,056,289) and perhaps majority Democratic upstate (Trump lead 206,496)

Once all is reported and certified there maybe won't be much of a swing in either direction

[Figueira]

This really is a repeat of 2004, except with white educateds saving Kerry.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Hawaii loves *elected* incumbents. It trended D in 1976.
Outside of that the string is still very intact.

This really is a repeat of 2004, except with white educateds saving Kerry.

It makes sense, since the 2016 trends look a lot like a repeat of 2000.

[wbrocks67]

Trump really brought out low prosperity voters.  When we saw those ridiculous numbers out of Texas we similarly assumed Trump was screwed but turns out he brought out his people as well as the haters.  Bad news for Republicans is that they're not gonna turn out in 2022 but the college educated whites Trump pissed off will.

It is true that college-educated white voters have tended to have the highest levels of turnout among the electorate, but Trump will not be President in 2022. Joe Biden will be, and I see no reason why 2022 would be different from 1994, 2006, 2010, 2014, or 2018 in terms of how things play out. And as it is, with the exceptionally high turnout and anti-Trump enthusiasm this year, the Democrats still did poorly downballot.

It's more complex than that - there was record turnout on both sides, but it appears that the GOP was able to bring out more low propensity voters. Party ID in some states was way higher for Rs than it usually is, so it looks like Trump was able to bring out a ton of Trump/R voters and even Biden/R voters.

Biden is leading b/c he won more Independents I think, but in the end, it almost looks like GOP turned out more voters than Ds did. Which makes sense why Ds underperformed downballot. Which also could be an effect of the ground game situation, which assuming COVID is gone by 2022, won't be an issue again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This state is the most expensive place to live aside from SF, both don't have public housing like South Beach, LA and NY does and the cruise industry went bankrupt/insolvent, since motion sickness doesn't go along with Covid.

The only people that remain are rich Fillippinos that own businesses there, it's a tourist state and you must own a car, the public transportation is unreliable

Of course Fillippinos aren't monolithic D's, but they are Ds

[BaldEagle1991]

This state is the most expensive place to live aside from SF, both don't have public housing like South Beach, LA and NY does and the cruise industry went bankrupt/insolvent, since motion sickness doesn't go along with Covid.

The only people that remain are rich Fillippinos that own businesses there, it's a tourist state and you must own a car, the public transportation is unreliable

Of course Fillippinos aren't monolithic D's, but they are Ds

They would be more split this year if it wasn’t for COVID. That community got high infection rates and death rates that even African American and Hispanic communities didn’t get.

[vitoNova]

A possible explanation is that many Hawaiians want the lockdowns to end, tourism to resume, and the world to get back to normal as quickly as possible.    Get those tourism bucks to start flowing in again.

And they perceived Trump as the candidate that would deliver on that.  

[wbrocks67]

A possible explanation is that many Hawaiians want the lockdowns to end, tourism to resume, and the world to get back to normal as quickly as possible.    Get those tourism bucks to start flowing in again.

And they perceived Trump as the candidate that would deliver on that.  

People keep using "anti lockdown/restrictions backlash" as a reason for different races, but there's really no proof or evidence that that was a factor, especially given that Biden was widely seen as the chosen candidate on the Coronavirus.

[Calthrina950]

Trump really brought out low prosperity voters.  When we saw those ridiculous numbers out of Texas we similarly assumed Trump was screwed but turns out he brought out his people as well as the haters.  Bad news for Republicans is that they're not gonna turn out in 2022 but the college educated whites Trump pissed off will.

It is true that college-educated white voters have tended to have the highest levels of turnout among the electorate, but Trump will not be President in 2022. Joe Biden will be, and I see no reason why 2022 would be different from 1994, 2006, 2010, 2014, or 2018 in terms of how things play out. And as it is, with the exceptionally high turnout and anti-Trump enthusiasm this year, the Democrats still did poorly downballot.

It's more complex than that - there was record turnout on both sides, but it appears that the GOP was able to bring out more low propensity voters. Party ID in some states was way higher for Rs than it usually is, so it looks like Trump was able to bring out a ton of Trump/R voters and even Biden/R voters.

Biden is leading b/c he won more Independents I think, but in the end, it almost looks like GOP turned out more voters than Ds did. Which makes sense why Ds underperformed downballot. Which also could be an effect of the ground game situation, which assuming COVID is gone by 2022, won't be an issue again.

I'm aware that there were a much greater number of low propensity voters, and that many of these people voted a straight Republican ticket-contributing to the Democratic losses. But I think it's very wrong to take the assumption that the 2022 midterms will be favorable to the Democratic Party because there will be a reversion to earlier turnout patterns. I doubt that turnout is going to return to the depths of say, 2014, and it's very likely that other Republican candidates will try to take a page from Trump's playbook so that they can energize turnout.

[mileslunn]

Hawaii also went massively Democrat because that was Obama's birth place and that was still lingering a bit in 2016.  34% for Trump is an improvement, but by historical standards that is not particularly high.  That is midway between what Bob Dole got in 1996 and George HW Bush in 1992 and more than 10 points below what George W Bush got in 2004.