The Oklahoma primary paradox

[I need an explanation]

Why did Oklahoma swing so far away from Sanders in 2020?

Same thing happened to Hillary in 2016.

Do they just hate retread candidates?

Or did the just see Sanders as the lesser evil in 2016 and weren’t really “for” him?

Obama also got a lot of protests in 2012 after losing big to Clinton in 2008. So Clinton lost because she was too much like Obama in 2016?

Did they actually like Hillary in 2008, or was she just a lesser evil too?

If they hated Obama so much that even Clinton was too much like him, why would they go with Biden, Obama’s VP, over Sanders who they supported last time?

They went their own way all the way back in 2004 too.

I think the only conclusion here is Oklahoma likes to troll.

[I need an explanation]

West Virginia is also like this, (Hillary 2008, Many Protests 2012, Bernie 2016, Biden 2020) though Biden was the last one standing by then. I wonder how it would have turned out if Bernie had still been in for WV in 2020.

[Bootes Void]

rural voters abandoned Bernie in droves

[I need an explanation]

rural voters abandoned Bernie in droves

But then why did they support him in the first place?

[DINGO Joe]

rural voters abandoned Bernie in droves

But then why did they support him in the first place?

Because he wasn't Hillary

[I need an explanation]

rural voters abandoned Bernie in droves

But then why did they support him in the first place?

Because he wasn't Hillary

They didn’t have a problem with Hillary in 2008 though,

[Alben Barkley]

rural voters abandoned Bernie in droves

But then why did they support him in the first place?

Because he wasn't Hillary

They didn’t have a problem with Hillary in 2008 though,

Eight years of hating Obama (who she was tied closely to) and right-wing media conditioning them to hate Hillary for her inevitable run (remember Benghazi?) changed that.

[I need an explanation]

rural voters abandoned Bernie in droves

But then why did they support him in the first place?

Because he wasn't Hillary

They didn’t have a problem with Hillary in 2008 though,

Eight years of hating Obama (who she was tied closely to) and right-wing media conditioning them to hate Hillary for her inevitable run (remember Benghazi?) changed that.

The only problem with that analysis is that Biden was tied even more to Obama as his own VP.

[Alben Barkley]

rural voters abandoned Bernie in droves

But then why did they support him in the first place?

Because he wasn't Hillary

They didn’t have a problem with Hillary in 2008 though,

Eight years of hating Obama (who she was tied closely to) and right-wing media conditioning them to hate Hillary for her inevitable run (remember Benghazi?) changed that.

The only problem with that analysis is that Biden was tied even more to Obama as his own VP.

But he didn’t get the 24/7 media hate and BENGHAZI hysteria. Because they never expected him to run and knew she would.

Also, woman vs. white man does matter. Honestly, she doubtless got at least SOME votes in 2008 for not being the black man. For some of these people, the hierarchy is white man>white woman>black man.

Although there’s also the fact that Bill Clinton’s presidency was both closer in time AND remembered more fondly by these people in 2008 than it was in 2016. A lot of shifts accelerating them farther away from Democrats in general happened during that time. We can argue about how much of that was due to racism and other factors, but it’s undeniable that right after 2008, WWC started fleeing the Democratic Party in droves.

And finally, some of it is probably just down to personality. Both Hillary and Obama are kinda reserved intellectual policy wonk types who use big words and are seen by many as “elitists.” Obama has more charisma, but it’s a different kind that doesn’t resonate as well with rural WWC. Biden has more of the “I’d like to have a beer with him” folksy charm than either. It’s a bit closer to Bill Clinton or George W. Bush’s appeal.

[TML]

In terms of Oklahoma in 2020, it should be noted that another factor for Biden's victory over Sanders was the activity in the last three days before Super Tuesday (i.e. Buttigieg & Klobuchar dropping out and endorsing Biden). Exit polls indicated that half of primary voters in OK made up their minds within the last few days before ST, and this group broke overwhelmingly for Biden. The other half which had decided earlier went narrowly for Sanders. A similar pattern played out in several other states where late deciders made up at least 40% of all primary voters - in each case, it was enough to either swing the state to Biden or make him win by a larger than expected margin.

[Hammy]

In 2008 there were a lot of Republicans and conservative Dems casting Stop Obama votes, and those voters were casting Stop Hillary in 2016.  Just look at Obama's performance in those states in the 2012 primary as well.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Hillary's campaign messaging was better suited to OK in 2008 than in 2016.   Bernie's campaign messaging was better suited to OK in 2016 than in 2020. 

Also some of these are protest votes from people who will vote GOP in the Nov election.  In 2016 Bernie was a good protest vote bc he did not represent the D establishment, but in 2020 he was defined more readily as left-wing Democrat.

[Woke Frenzy]

The only problem with that analysis is that Biden was tied even more to Obama as his own VP.

There's one simple reason for that paradox: Unlike in 2008 or 2016, there were several candidates on the ballot, which made a plurality win for Biden possible.

I've mentioned this phenomenon several times before. Many white Southern Democrats simply despise their own party and want to express their hatred by casting a protest ballot.
That same phenomenon can be discovered in West Virginia and Loving County, Texas, too, where they even switched from Obama '08 to one of those "Democratic" troll candidates (Bob Ely) in 2012.

Keep in mind that in 2004 neither Kerry nor Edwards won Oklahoma, but that military guy from Arkansas (Wesley Clark) who became Hillary's campaign manager four years later.


Michigan is an anti-bellwether state, too, when it comes to Democratic primaries, having chosen candidates from a wide ideological range including George Wallace and Jesse Jackson. But the Michigan Democrats don't seem to be trolls, unlike their Southern brethren.

[Crumpets]

rural voters abandoned Bernie in droves

But then why did they support him in the first place?

Because he wasn't Hillary

They didn’t have a problem with Hillary in 2008 though,

Hillary wasn't Obama.

And so on.