Cities vs. rest of county

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

To update still awaiting for following and will update as I find them.

Sacramento vs. rest of Sacramento County
Los Angeles vs. rest of Los Angeles County
Las Vegas vs. rest of Clark County
Phoenix vs. rest of Maricopa County
Albuquerque vs. rest of Bernalillo County
Omaha vs. rest of Douglas County
El Paso vs. rest of El Paso County
Austin vs. rest of Travis County
Dallas vs. rest of Dallas County
Indianapolis vs. rest of Marion County (I got breakdown of townships but not by municipality)
Memphis vs. rest of Shelby county
Rochester vs. rest of Monroe County
Charlotte vs. rest of Mecklenburg County
Raleigh vs. rest of Wake County
Jacksonville vs. rest of Duval county
Orlando vs. rest of Orange county
Tampa vs. rest of Hillsborough county
Miami vs. rest of Miami-Dade County

Yeah I'm very curious where in LA County the R swing came from. The LA Times precinct map of coastal SoCal isn't super revealing.
 
https://losangeleno.com/features/trump-vs-biden-los-angeles-precincts/

Who Lives in L.A.’s Red Pockets? Rich People and Scientologists

There are two precincts near Beverly Hills that leaned in favor of President Donald Trump. precinct 0900004A reported 1,007 votes for Trump and 865 for former Vice President Joe Biden while neighboring precinct 0900010A cast 935 votes for Trump and 660 for Biden. This part of town also favored Trump in 2016.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/04/us/elections/florida-election-results-by-county.html
NYT Miami-Dade precinct graphic from Nov 4

[BaldEagle1991]

I want to see Houston vs. rest of Harris County.

[mileslunn]

I want to see Houston vs. rest of Harris County.

Houston

Biden: 63.9%
Trump 34.8%

Rest of Harris County

Trump: 49.9%
Biden 48.8%

[BaldEagle1991]

I want to see Houston vs. rest of Harris County.

Houston

Biden: 63.9%
Trump 34.8%

Rest of Harris County

Trump: 49.9%
Biden 48.8%

Surprised to see Trump winning outer Harris, knowing it's suburban nature.

[King of Kensington]

Dallas and Houston are still somewhat more conservative outliers among the top 10 metro areas.

[BaldEagle1991]

Dallas and Houston are still somewhat more conservative outliers among the top 10 metro areas.

That may be true 10 years ago...its metros are becoming more purple.

[King of Kensington]

Not quite enough to flip the state which is 85% urban and 50% in two large metros, so I stand by the point.  Hence the use of "somewhat."

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

At the MSA level, Dallas was D+0 and Houston was D+1. Which is actually a really big deal because for the first time ever, Republicans are only netting votes from rural areas as the cities more than cancel out all their suburbs and exurbs.

Add another decade of growth and the TXGOP is in a really bad place because there is no growing part of the state where they can actually net new votes to offset the metro areas cancelling out an ever-increasing share of the rurals. Basically, Texas is lagging Georgia by ~8-12 years (look back to when Atlanta flipped even as the GOP maxed the rurals.) The RGV weirdness aside, Texas is heading in one very obvious political direction. Metropolitan growth is destiny.

[mileslunn]

Trump dominated the northern part of Harris County which is right next door to Montgomery County where Trump still got over 70%.  I believe a lot of people who work in oil companies live there and obviously would not be fans of Democrats.  Fort Bend County went Democrat and many of the suburbs there are actually closer to downtown than the northern parts of Harris County which Trump dominated.

I could be wrong, but I believe Dallas has a big tech sector and pharmaceuticals whereas Houston is more energy sector thus could explain why Democrats doing better in Dallas than Houston.  Tech sector tends to be fairly Democratic, while energy sector still largely GOP.

[ottermax]

For King County, again may change slightly but still good indication percentage wise.  Since numbers not final, just gave percentages.  Looks like Seattle might be in the running for most Democratic city as has beaten out San Francisco and Boston and likely New York City.  Mind you one of the more well to do, quite educated so somewhat makes sense.  Washington DC is more Democratic and Detroit probably is too (large African-American), but ranks up there.

Seattle:

Biden: 89.5%
Trump: 8%

Rest of King County

Biden: 69.1%
Trump: 27.6%

East end which was once solidly Republican is where GOP floor has fallen through.  Not surprising as large tech sector, large number of well to do college educated residents.

Biden:

Exhibit #2 for the case against a uniform R swing among urban nonwhites. (Seattle proper is 68% Non-Hispanic White, 15% Asian, and 7% Black per 2019 estimates.) That Trump number is not very indicative of a R swing among Seattle’s Asian or Black residents.

I think you need to look at the suburbs like Tukwila, Sea-Tac, Kent, Federal Way, Renton, and South Seattle precincts before making this claim. Seattle is less White than most of South King County.

[King of Kensington]

Trump dominated the northern part of Harris County which is right next door to Montgomery County where Trump still got over 70%.  I believe a lot of people who work in oil companies live there and obviously would not be fans of Democrats.  Fort Bend County went Democrat and many of the suburbs there are actually closer to downtown than the northern parts of Harris County which Trump dominated.

I could be wrong, but I believe Dallas has a big tech sector and pharmaceuticals whereas Houston is more energy sector thus could explain why Democrats doing better in Dallas than Houston.  Tech sector tends to be fairly Democratic, while energy sector still largely GOP.

The voting patterns of the MSAs were basically identical though, no?

[ottermax]

Yeah I'm very curious where in LA County the R swing came from. The LA Times precinct map of coastal SoCal isn't super revealing.
 
https://losangeleno.com/features/trump-vs-biden-los-angeles-precincts/

Glancing really quickly comparing the precinct maps from 2020 to 2016 in LA, it looks like the same patterns we see in many areas of the Sun Belt... higher turnout more votes for Biden, but also more votes for Trump narrowing the margins in places like Inglewood, Downey, and Compton.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

For King County, again may change slightly but still good indication percentage wise.  Since numbers not final, just gave percentages.  Looks like Seattle might be in the running for most Democratic city as has beaten out San Francisco and Boston and likely New York City.  Mind you one of the more well to do, quite educated so somewhat makes sense.  Washington DC is more Democratic and Detroit probably is too (large African-American), but ranks up there.

Seattle:

Biden: 89.5%
Trump: 8%

Rest of King County

Biden: 69.1%
Trump: 27.6%

East end which was once solidly Republican is where GOP floor has fallen through.  Not surprising as large tech sector, large number of well to do college educated residents.

Biden:

Exhibit #2 for the case against a uniform R swing among urban nonwhites. (Seattle proper is 68% Non-Hispanic White, 15% Asian, and 7% Black per 2019 estimates.) That Trump number is not very indicative of a R swing among Seattle’s Asian or Black residents.

I think you need to look at the suburbs like Tukwila, Sea-Tac, Kent, Federal Way, Renton, and South Seattle precincts before making this claim. Seattle is less White than most of South King County.

I was citing the Wikipedia article for the city of Seattle, which also says Trump won 8.44% of the vote in 2016. My general understanding is that the South King County suburbs are more Latino and black than King County as a whole, while also having a decent number of Asians. Renton, Kent, and Federal Way are all ~50% Non-Hispanic white. Auburn is 70%. Tukwila is under 40%. It’s definitely possible South King County nonwhites swung R, but it doesn’t seem like that happened in Seattle itself.

FWIW most of the people I know from college who grew up in South King County are working-to-lower-middle class Asians, with a few white, black, and Latino people.

[mileslunn]

I think in Seattle metro area, Asians likely swung towards Biden.  A lot are university educated and work in areas like tech sector so would be naturally turned off by Trump.  Unlike Hispanics, I believe Asians as a whole did not swing towards Trump, notable exception being Vietnamese-Americans who did for same reason Cuban-Americans did.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

I still think the national Asian vote swung R, if only because the median Asian voter is over 40 and foreign-born, and because we've seen how much urban Asian enclaves swung. I don't think the overall swing was as big as NBC/Edison shows, and I don't think whatever swing occured among Indians is clearly detectable from precinct data.

My assessment of the Vietnamese vote was influenced by the Seattle and Portland-area Millennials and Zoomers I personally know, who are also more concentrated in the tech and healthcare industries.

[mileslunn]

This gives https://er.ncsbe.gov/contest_details.html?election_dt=11/03/2020&county_id=60&contest_id=1373 Mecklenburg County so if anyone can just tell me which precincts in terms of range are Charlotte proper vs. suburbs of Mecklenburg County

[mileslunn]

Travis County as shown below

Austin

Biden: 77.3%
Trump 20.2%

Rest of Travis County

Biden: 59.4%
Trump: 39%

[mileslunn]

Dallas County

Dallas

Biden: 69.7%
Trump: 27.5%

Rest of Dallas County

Biden: 60.7%
Trump: 38.3%

[n1240]

LA County but only enight final results (missing about 1.2 million counted after eday)

LA

Biden 77.3%
Trump 20.9%

Rest of LA County

Biden 68.1%
Trump 30.0%

El Paso County

El Paso

Biden 66.9%
Trump 31.3%

Rest of El Paso County

Biden 65.5%
Trump 32.6%

[n1240]

This gives https://er.ncsbe.gov/contest_details.html?election_dt=11/03/2020&county_id=60&contest_id=1373 Mecklenburg County so if anyone can just tell me which precincts in terms of range are Charlotte proper vs. suburbs of Mecklenburg County

You can figure out the precincts by looking at a race confined to Charlotte like this one. Issue is that mail-in votes are lumped into one central precinct so you'd probably have to figure out some form of estimation.

[mileslunn]

This gives https://er.ncsbe.gov/contest_details.html?election_dt=11/03/2020&county_id=60&contest_id=1373 Mecklenburg County so if anyone can just tell me which precincts in terms of range are Charlotte proper vs. suburbs of Mecklenburg County

You can figure out the precincts by looking at a race confined to Charlotte like this one. Issue is that mail-in votes are lumped into one central precinct so you'd probably have to figure out some form of estimation.

Perfect I will work on that later.  Probably quicker to just calculate precincts outside and subtract from there.

[mileslunn]

LA County but only enight final results (missing about 1.2 million counted after eday)

LA

Biden 77.3%
Trump 20.9%

Rest of LA County

Biden 68.1%
Trump 30.0%

El Paso County

El Paso

Biden 66.9%
Trump 31.3%

Rest of El Paso County

Biden 65.5%
Trump 32.6%

Do you have a link to LA county results by municipality?  For El Paso looks like almost no divide between city and rest of county which is unusual but again also in Rio Grande Valley where votes more along ethnic lines although Trump did see strong swings amongst Hispanics towards him.

[n1240]

LA County but only enight final results (missing about 1.2 million counted after eday)

LA

Biden 77.3%
Trump 20.9%

Rest of LA County

Biden 68.1%
Trump 30.0%

El Paso County

El Paso

Biden 66.9%
Trump 31.3%

Rest of El Paso County

Biden 65.5%
Trump 32.6%

Do you have a link to LA county results by municipality?  For El Paso looks like almost no divide between city and rest of county which is unusual but again also in Rio Grande Valley where votes more along ethnic lines although Trump did see strong swings amongst Hispanics towards him.

https://lavote.net/home/voting-elections/current-elections/election-results/past-election-results, can download excel file of precinct data which also sorts nicely by municipality.

Seems like some municipalities in El Paso county have slight higher Hispanic pop than El Paso city so it may not be too surprisingly to see such a result there.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

LA County but only enight final results (missing about 1.2 million counted after eday)

LA

Biden 77.3%
Trump 20.9%

Rest of LA County

Biden 68.1%
Trump 30.0%

These numbers come out to 71.8-26.4, which is ~1% more D than the final result. Los Angeles proper is around 40% of the county’s population.

[n1240]

LA County but only enight final results (missing about 1.2 million counted after eday)

LA

Biden 77.3%
Trump 20.9%

Rest of LA County

Biden 68.1%
Trump 30.0%

These numbers come out to 71.8-26.4, which is ~1% more D than the final result. Los Angeles proper is around 40% of the county’s population.

As I mentioned it's only enight final results, which explains the discrepancy.