Cities vs. rest of county
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mileslunn
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« Reply #275 on: February 05, 2021, 09:20:20 PM »

For Kansas, state has central precinct data, I can DM you the spreadsheet and all of those calculated.  For Iowa, their website for secretary of state makes it super easy.
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Sailor Haumea
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« Reply #276 on: February 05, 2021, 11:19:56 PM »

Now that WV precinct maps are out, anyone want to try Fairmont or Beckley? They look close but I'm not sure who won them.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #277 on: February 07, 2021, 09:10:26 PM »

Here are few of the secondary cities in Michigan

Grand Rapids:

Biden: 67,985 (69.59%)
Trump: 27,158 (27.8%)
Total: 97,696

Rest of Kent County

Trump: 138,583 (52.43%)
Biden: 119,930 (45.37%)
Total: 264,335

Flint:

Biden: 28,231 (82.35%)
Trump: 5,542 (16.17%)

Rest of Genesee County

Trump: 93,172 (49.7%)
Biden: 91,159 (48.62%)
Total: 187,484

Lansing:

Biden: 37,899 (73.26%)
Trump: 12,758 (24.66%)
Total: 51.735

Rest of Ingham County

Biden: 56,313 (60.67%)
Trump: 34,881 (37.58%)
Total: 92,815

Kalamazoo:

Biden: 25,139 (76.91%)
Trump: 6,763 (20.69%)
Total: 32,686

Rest of Kalamazoo County

Biden: 58,547 (52.72%)
Trump: 50,060 (45.07%)
Total: 111,060

Saginaw:

Biden: 14,207 (76.31%)
Trump: 4,150 (22.29%)
Total: 18,617

Rest of Saginaw County

Trump: 46,635 (54.95%)
Biden: 36,881 (43.46%)
Total: 84,866

Ann Arbor:

Biden: 59,210 (87.4%)
Trump: 7,662 (11.31%)
Total: 67.749

Rest of Washtenaw County

Biden: 97,926 (65.64%)
Trump: 48,579 (32.56%)
Total: 149,182
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Sailor Haumea
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« Reply #278 on: February 07, 2021, 09:44:53 PM »

Miles, I saw someone on Twitter calculated different results for Port St. Lucie that had Biden flipping it after it voted for Trump in 2016. He had Trump winning it in 2016 42,501 to Clinton's 42,048, and then Biden winning it in 2020 with 54,904 to Trump's 54,177. Maybe recheck your numbers?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #279 on: February 07, 2021, 10:10:03 PM »

Miles, I saw someone on Twitter calculated different results for Port St. Lucie that had Biden flipping it after it voted for Trump in 2016. He had Trump winning it in 2016 42,501 to Clinton's 42,048, and then Biden winning it in 2020 with 54,904 to Trump's 54,177. Maybe recheck your numbers?

I can update that.  Admittedly it went by where polling station so I think mine included those outside Port St. Lucie, but polling station in Port St. Lucie will re-calculate.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #280 on: February 07, 2021, 10:24:51 PM »

Here are some for Minnesota

Rochester:

Biden: 39,203 (59.37%)
Trump: 25,210 (38.18%)
Total: 66,033

Rest of Olmsted County

Trump: 14,482 (57.12%)
Biden: 10,289 (40.58%)
Total: 25,352

Duluth:

Biden: 34,384 (68.4%)
Trump: 14,559 (28.96%)
Total: 50,272

Rest of St. Louis County

Trump: 34,457 (49.75%)
Biden: 33,324 (48.11%)
Total: 69,262

Looks Duluth makes GOP flipping St. Louis County flipping, but rest seems like Iron Range and other white working class areas swinging GOP as pretty sure Obama dominated even rural parts of St. Louis County

St. Cloud (Stearns county part only on left, right total city)

Biden: 13,879 (52.06%) - 17,151 (52.94%)
Trump: 11,964 (44.88%) - 14,209 (43.86%)
Total: 26,659 - 32,398

Rest of Stearns County

Trump: 38,995 (67.02%)
Biden: 18,002 (30.94%)
Total: 58,180
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Sailor Haumea
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« Reply #281 on: February 08, 2021, 01:22:59 AM »

Here are some for Minnesota

Rochester:

Biden: 39,203 (59.37%)
Trump: 25,210 (38.18%)
Total: 66,033

Rest of Olmsted County

Trump: 14,482 (57.12%)
Biden: 10,289 (40.58%)
Total: 25,352

Duluth:

Biden: 34,384 (68.4%)
Trump: 14,559 (28.96%)
Total: 50,272

Rest of St. Louis County

Trump: 34,457 (49.75%)
Biden: 33,324 (48.11%)
Total: 69,262

Looks Duluth makes GOP flipping St. Louis County flipping, but rest seems like Iron Range and other white working class areas swinging GOP as pretty sure Obama dominated even rural parts of St. Louis County

St. Cloud (Stearns county part only on left, right total city)

Biden: 13,879 (52.06%) - 17,151 (52.94%)
Trump: 11,964 (44.88%) - 14,209 (43.86%)
Total: 26,659 - 32,398

Rest of Stearns County

Trump: 38,995 (67.02%)
Biden: 18,002 (30.94%)
Total: 58,180

Can you do 2016 St. Cloud?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #282 on: February 08, 2021, 05:22:09 PM »

Here are some for Minnesota

Rochester:

Biden: 39,203 (59.37%)
Trump: 25,210 (38.18%)
Total: 66,033

Rest of Olmsted County

Trump: 14,482 (57.12%)
Biden: 10,289 (40.58%)
Total: 25,352

Duluth:

Biden: 34,384 (68.4%)
Trump: 14,559 (28.96%)
Total: 50,272

Rest of St. Louis County

Trump: 34,457 (49.75%)
Biden: 33,324 (48.11%)
Total: 69,262

Looks Duluth makes GOP flipping St. Louis County flipping, but rest seems like Iron Range and other white working class areas swinging GOP as pretty sure Obama dominated even rural parts of St. Louis County

St. Cloud (Stearns county part only on left, right total city)

Biden: 13,879 (52.06%) - 17,151 (52.94%)
Trump: 11,964 (44.88%) - 14,209 (43.86%)
Total: 26,659 - 32,398

Rest of Stearns County

Trump: 38,995 (67.02%)
Biden: 18,002 (30.94%)
Total: 58,180

Can you do 2016 St. Cloud?

I only have 2020, although I do believe that Trump narrowly won it in 2016.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #283 on: February 08, 2021, 05:40:05 PM »

Here is Lancaster County, Nebraska

Lincoln:

Biden: 75,815 (54.48%)
Trump: 57,599 (41.39%)

Rest of Lancaster County

Trump: 12,493 (63.63%)
Biden: 6,478 (32.99%)
Total: 19,635
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mileslunn
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« Reply #284 on: February 08, 2021, 11:28:25 PM »

Here is Clark County, Nevada, surprisingly little difference although mainly because North Las Vegas went more heavily Democrat than Las Vegas.  Trump won Henderson, rural areas and most unincorporated.

Las Vegas:

Biden: 149,831 (54.18%)
Trump: 120,459 (43.56%)
Total: 276,518

Rest of Clark County

Biden: 372,021 (53.45%)
Trump: 310,471 (44.61%)
Total: 695,992
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #285 on: February 10, 2021, 07:02:45 AM »

Here are few of the secondary cities in Michigan

Grand Rapids:

Biden: 67,985 (69.59%)
Trump: 27,158 (27.8%)
Total: 97,696

Rest of Kent County

Trump: 138,583 (52.43%)
Biden: 119,930 (45.37%)
Total: 264,335

Flint:

Biden: 28,231 (82.35%)
Trump: 5,542 (16.17%)

Rest of Genesee County

Trump: 93,172 (49.7%)
Biden: 91,159 (48.62%)
Total: 187,484

Lansing:

Biden: 37,899 (73.26%)
Trump: 12,758 (24.66%)
Total: 51.735

Rest of Ingham County

Biden: 56,313 (60.67%)
Trump: 34,881 (37.58%)
Total: 92,815

Kalamazoo:

Biden: 25,139 (76.91%)
Trump: 6,763 (20.69%)
Total: 32,686

Rest of Kalamazoo County

Biden: 58,547 (52.72%)
Trump: 50,060 (45.07%)
Total: 111,060

Saginaw:

Biden: 14,207 (76.31%)
Trump: 4,150 (22.29%)
Total: 18,617

Rest of Saginaw County

Trump: 46,635 (54.95%)
Biden: 36,881 (43.46%)
Total: 84,866

Ann Arbor:

Biden: 59,210 (87.4%)
Trump: 7,662 (11.31%)
Total: 67.749

Rest of Washtenaw County

Biden: 97,926 (65.64%)
Trump: 48,579 (32.56%)
Total: 149,182

Ingram seems a little skewed because of East Lansing. How does taking that out change things?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #286 on: February 10, 2021, 04:25:44 PM »

Here are few of the secondary cities in Michigan

Grand Rapids:

Biden: 67,985 (69.59%)
Trump: 27,158 (27.8%)
Total: 97,696

Rest of Kent County

Trump: 138,583 (52.43%)
Biden: 119,930 (45.37%)
Total: 264,335

Flint:

Biden: 28,231 (82.35%)
Trump: 5,542 (16.17%)

Rest of Genesee County

Trump: 93,172 (49.7%)
Biden: 91,159 (48.62%)
Total: 187,484

Lansing:

Biden: 37,899 (73.26%)
Trump: 12,758 (24.66%)
Total: 51.735

Rest of Ingham County

Biden: 56,313 (60.67%)
Trump: 34,881 (37.58%)
Total: 92,815

Kalamazoo:

Biden: 25,139 (76.91%)
Trump: 6,763 (20.69%)
Total: 32,686

Rest of Kalamazoo County

Biden: 58,547 (52.72%)
Trump: 50,060 (45.07%)
Total: 111,060

Saginaw:

Biden: 14,207 (76.31%)
Trump: 4,150 (22.29%)
Total: 18,617

Rest of Saginaw County

Trump: 46,635 (54.95%)
Biden: 36,881 (43.46%)
Total: 84,866

Ann Arbor:

Biden: 59,210 (87.4%)
Trump: 7,662 (11.31%)
Total: 67.749

Rest of Washtenaw County

Biden: 97,926 (65.64%)
Trump: 48,579 (32.56%)
Total: 149,182

Ingram seems a little skewed because of East Lansing. How does taking that out change things?

Even removing it, still pretty solidly for Biden, 57% to 41%.
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Sailor Haumea
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« Reply #287 on: February 11, 2021, 01:40:35 AM »

Here are few of the secondary cities in Michigan

Grand Rapids:

Biden: 67,985 (69.59%)
Trump: 27,158 (27.8%)
Total: 97,696

Rest of Kent County

Trump: 138,583 (52.43%)
Biden: 119,930 (45.37%)
Total: 264,335

Flint:

Biden: 28,231 (82.35%)
Trump: 5,542 (16.17%)

Rest of Genesee County

Trump: 93,172 (49.7%)
Biden: 91,159 (48.62%)
Total: 187,484

Lansing:

Biden: 37,899 (73.26%)
Trump: 12,758 (24.66%)
Total: 51.735

Rest of Ingham County

Biden: 56,313 (60.67%)
Trump: 34,881 (37.58%)
Total: 92,815

Kalamazoo:

Biden: 25,139 (76.91%)
Trump: 6,763 (20.69%)
Total: 32,686

Rest of Kalamazoo County

Biden: 58,547 (52.72%)
Trump: 50,060 (45.07%)
Total: 111,060

Saginaw:

Biden: 14,207 (76.31%)
Trump: 4,150 (22.29%)
Total: 18,617

Rest of Saginaw County

Trump: 46,635 (54.95%)
Biden: 36,881 (43.46%)
Total: 84,866

Ann Arbor:

Biden: 59,210 (87.4%)
Trump: 7,662 (11.31%)
Total: 67.749

Rest of Washtenaw County

Biden: 97,926 (65.64%)
Trump: 48,579 (32.56%)
Total: 149,182

Ingram seems a little skewed because of East Lansing. How does taking that out change things?

Even removing it, still pretty solidly for Biden, 57% to 41%.
Mind doing Decatur, IL and Macomb, IL?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #288 on: February 11, 2021, 02:14:23 AM »

Two more for Pennsylvania

Erie:

Biden: 24,878 (63.8%)
Trump: 13,534 (34.7%)
Total: 38,998

Rest of Erie County

Trump: 53,335 (54.38%)
Biden: 43,408 (44.26%)
Total: 98,085

It appears rural areas swung hard to Trump in 2016 and stayed that way thus why Clinton lose county.  Biden gained in suburban area thus why able to narrowly flip county

Allentown:

Biden: 28,338 (67.06%)
Trump: 13,479 (31.9%)
Total: 42,260

Rest of Lehigh County

Trump: 70,939 (49.47%)
Biden: 70,160 (48.93%)
Total: 143,395

Central parts of Lehigh Valley which are most densely populated mostly went for Biden while Trump dominated the northern and southern parts which are more rural and exurban.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #289 on: February 11, 2021, 02:14:58 AM »

Here are few of the secondary cities in Michigan

Grand Rapids:

Biden: 67,985 (69.59%)
Trump: 27,158 (27.8%)
Total: 97,696

Rest of Kent County

Trump: 138,583 (52.43%)
Biden: 119,930 (45.37%)
Total: 264,335

Flint:

Biden: 28,231 (82.35%)
Trump: 5,542 (16.17%)

Rest of Genesee County

Trump: 93,172 (49.7%)
Biden: 91,159 (48.62%)
Total: 187,484

Lansing:

Biden: 37,899 (73.26%)
Trump: 12,758 (24.66%)
Total: 51.735

Rest of Ingham County

Biden: 56,313 (60.67%)
Trump: 34,881 (37.58%)
Total: 92,815

Kalamazoo:

Biden: 25,139 (76.91%)
Trump: 6,763 (20.69%)
Total: 32,686

Rest of Kalamazoo County

Biden: 58,547 (52.72%)
Trump: 50,060 (45.07%)
Total: 111,060

Saginaw:

Biden: 14,207 (76.31%)
Trump: 4,150 (22.29%)
Total: 18,617

Rest of Saginaw County

Trump: 46,635 (54.95%)
Biden: 36,881 (43.46%)
Total: 84,866

Ann Arbor:

Biden: 59,210 (87.4%)
Trump: 7,662 (11.31%)
Total: 67.749

Rest of Washtenaw County

Biden: 97,926 (65.64%)
Trump: 48,579 (32.56%)
Total: 149,182

Ingram seems a little skewed because of East Lansing. How does taking that out change things?

Even removing it, still pretty solidly for Biden, 57% to 41%.
Mind doing Decatur, IL and Macomb, IL?

I can check on that, I know for Illinois most done by township only, but if they do give breakdown will post it shortly.
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Sailor Haumea
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« Reply #290 on: February 11, 2021, 02:27:24 AM »

Two more for Pennsylvania

Erie:

Biden: 24,878 (63.8%)
Trump: 13,534 (34.7%)
Total: 38,998

Rest of Erie County

Trump: 53,335 (54.38%)
Biden: 43,408 (44.26%)
Total: 98,085

It appears rural areas swung hard to Trump in 2016 and stayed that way thus why Clinton lose county.  Biden gained in suburban area thus why able to narrowly flip county

Allentown:

Biden: 28,338 (67.06%)
Trump: 13,479 (31.9%)
Total: 42,260

Rest of Lehigh County

Trump: 70,939 (49.47%)
Biden: 70,160 (48.93%)
Total: 143,395

Central parts of Lehigh Valley which are most densely populated mostly went for Biden while Trump dominated the northern and southern parts which are more rural and exurban.
Could you do the combined Lehigh & Northampton Counties vote for the city of Bethlehem for 2012, 2016, and 2020?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #291 on: February 11, 2021, 02:39:09 AM »

Two more for Pennsylvania

Erie:

Biden: 24,878 (63.8%)
Trump: 13,534 (34.7%)
Total: 38,998

Rest of Erie County

Trump: 53,335 (54.38%)
Biden: 43,408 (44.26%)
Total: 98,085

It appears rural areas swung hard to Trump in 2016 and stayed that way thus why Clinton lose county.  Biden gained in suburban area thus why able to narrowly flip county

Allentown:

Biden: 28,338 (67.06%)
Trump: 13,479 (31.9%)
Total: 42,260

Rest of Lehigh County

Trump: 70,939 (49.47%)
Biden: 70,160 (48.93%)
Total: 143,395

Central parts of Lehigh Valley which are most densely populated mostly went for Biden while Trump dominated the northern and southern parts which are more rural and exurban.
Could you do the combined Lehigh & Northampton Counties vote for the city of Bethlehem for 2012, 2016, and 2020?

I can do 2020 for Bethlehem, its around 63% Biden to 35% Trump.  Don't have 2016 or 2012.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #292 on: February 11, 2021, 02:47:21 AM »

For Illinois here are the two:

Decatur:

Biden: 9,967 (54.46%)
Trump: 7,927 (43.31%)
Total: 18,301

Rest of Macon County

Trump: 20,662 (66.46%)
Biden: 9,880 (31.78%)
Total: 31,089

Macomb

Biden: 3,175 (53.77%)
Trump: 2,556 (43.29%)
Total: 5,905

Rest of McDonough County

Trump: 4,471 (69.62%)
Biden: 1,817 (28.29%)
Total: 6,422
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Sailor Haumea
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« Reply #293 on: February 13, 2021, 02:01:47 AM »

For Kansas, state has central precinct data, I can DM you the spreadsheet and all of those calculated.  For Iowa, their website for secretary of state makes it super easy.
Can you DM?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #294 on: February 19, 2021, 07:42:41 PM »

Here is Little Rock vs. Pulaski County and while not perfect as precincts don't perfectly match boundaries pretty close.

Little Rock:

Biden: 57,748 (69.57%)
Trump: 23,113 (27.84%)
Total: 83,008

Rest of Pulaski County:

Biden: 44,199 (50.83%)
Trump: 40,574 (46.66%)
Total: 86,947
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mileslunn
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« Reply #295 on: February 21, 2021, 08:25:39 PM »

As one of the few metropolitan areas over 1 million I haven't done yet, here is Orlando.  Note this is very approximate as precinct boundaries don't match municipal so I included those that were majority in Orlando while excluded those only minority, so this is not exact, but approximate.  Still good general indicator.  Orlando itself is a minority-majority city while suburbs a lot whiter although Biden won most incorporated suburbs but lost a lot of the unincorporated areas.

Orlando:

Biden: 98,363 (66.87%)
Trump: 45,741 (31.1%)
Total: 147,091

Rest of Orange County

Biden: 296,651 (59.09%)
Trump: 199,657 (39.77%)
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mileslunn
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« Reply #296 on: February 22, 2021, 05:15:46 PM »

Here is Savannah, Georgia

Savannah:

Biden: 42,975 (74.5%)
Trump: 13,847 (24%)
Total: 57,682

Rest of Chatham County

Trump: 39,385 (52%)
Biden: 35,272 (46.58%)
Total: 75,276

Trump generally dominated the northern and southern parts which are more exurban and very white while the adjacent suburbs which are more racially diverse mostly voted for Biden although more competitive than Savannah itself.  Like much of the South racially polarized but white population not as heavily GOP as in other nearby counties thanks to heavy tourist presence. 
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mileslunn
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« Reply #297 on: March 01, 2021, 06:07:57 AM »

Here is for Monroe county, New York

Rochester:

Biden: 57,984 (81.22%)
Trump: 11,746 (16.45%)
Total: 71,394

Rest of Monroe County

Biden: 167,762 (54.19%)
Trump: 133,915 (43.25%)
Total: 309,595

Back in 2004, Bush almost won county, so it seems Rochester suburbs have swung much harder towards Democrats than Erie County ones have.
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Sol
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« Reply #298 on: March 01, 2021, 06:22:26 PM »

Here is for Monroe county, New York

Rochester:

Biden: 57,984 (81.22%)
Trump: 11,746 (16.45%)
Total: 71,394

Rest of Monroe County

Biden: 167,762 (54.19%)
Trump: 133,915 (43.25%)
Total: 309,595

Back in 2004, Bush almost won county, so it seems Rochester suburbs have swung much harder towards Democrats than Erie County ones have.

Makes sense given the kind of swings we've been seeing recently--Rochester is a pretty white collar city.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #299 on: March 01, 2021, 08:44:26 PM »

Here is for Monroe county, New York

Rochester:

Biden: 57,984 (81.22%)
Trump: 11,746 (16.45%)
Total: 71,394

Rest of Monroe County

Biden: 167,762 (54.19%)
Trump: 133,915 (43.25%)
Total: 309,595

Back in 2004, Bush almost won county, so it seems Rochester suburbs have swung much harder towards Democrats than Erie County ones have.

Makes sense given the kind of swings we've been seeing recently--Rochester is a pretty white collar city.

That makes sense as in 2004 Monroe County voted to right of Erie County, but in last two elections its voted to its left so that is probably why.
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