Cities vs. rest of county

[Skye]

Seattle swung to Biden, along with pretty much every municipality in King thanks to consolidation of the extremely high level of 2016 third party performance (lots of places this was 8-12% of the vote.

It's also clear that there were South Seattle minority-heavy precincts that swung to Trump, sometimes quite dramatically. Precincts that voted 80% + Clinton, with Trump <10% ended up 75-25 at worst, or 80-20/high teens. Also notice how traditionally very democratic SeaTac didn't crack 70% for Biden?

With King county certification this past Tuesday, here's how King County cities voted (Bothell, Pacific, and Auburn results are inclusive of their appendages into Snohomish/Pierce counties):

Basic takeaway is that the Eastside now votes like inner suburbs (quite a few >80% Biden precincts in Shoreline/Lake Forest Park/Redmond(!)/Mercer Island.

City                      Biden                   Trump              Other
Seattle                  88.45                   9.11                2.43
Lake Forest Park    80.59                   16.38               3.02
Shoreline              78.92                   18.30               2.79
Mercer Island        75.89                    21.52              2.49
Redmond              74.84                    21.90              3.27
Kenmore               73.65                   23.25               3.10
Tukwila                 73.09                   24.23               2.68
Issaquah               72.82                   24.33               2.85
Kirkland                72.60                   24.23               3.17
Beaux Art Village    71.78                  24.07               4.15
Burien                   71.98                  25.33                2.69
Bellevue                71.30                   25.81               2.89
Sammamish          70.84                   26.25                2.91 (! Voted for Obama by like 5 in '12)
Yarrow Point          70.69                   26.29                3.02 (! Literally voted for Romney)
Woodinville            70.03                  26.79                 3.17

Newcastle              69.15                  27.71                 3.15
Bothell                  68.86                   27.77                3.37 (King Co portion is >70 Biden)
SeaTac                  69.12                   28.17                2.71
Renton                  68.98                   28.09                2.93
Normandy Park      68.00                   29.50                2.50
Duvall                   67.01                   28.95                4.05 (I think Romney won here too)
Des Moines            67.04                   30.21                2.75
Snoqualmie            65.75                  30.62                 3.62
Medina                  65.52                   31.71                2.77
Kent                      64.50                   32.32                3.18
Clyde Hill               63.73                   33.19                3.08 (Voted for Romney)
Federal Way           63.25                   33.86                2.89
Carnation               62.78                   33.15                4.07
North Bend             62.48                   33.60                3.92
Hunts Point             59.42                   39.29                1.30 (Voted for Romney)
Auburn                   57.90                   39.00                3.10 (Pierce part voted to the left of King)
Maple Valley            56.31                   39.95                3.74 (50/50 in 2012)
Covington               55.98                   40.38                 3.71 (50/50 in 2012)
Algona                    52.65                   45.38                1.97 (This 51-46 Kerry, has barely budged)
Pacific                     50.85                   46.14                3.01

Black Diamond         46.52                  50.54                 2.94
Enumclaw                43.93                  52.76                 3.30

I made a map of King County. Nice to know someone broke the results by municipality!

[Kamala's side hoe]

Seattle swung to Biden, along with pretty much every municipality in King thanks to consolidation of the extremely high level of 2016 third party performance (lots of places this was 8-12% of the vote.

It's also clear that there were South Seattle minority-heavy precincts that swung to Trump, sometimes quite dramatically. Precincts that voted 80% + Clinton, with Trump <10% ended up 75-25 at worst, or 80-20/high teens. Also notice how traditionally very democratic SeaTac didn't crack 70% for Biden?

With King county certification this past Tuesday, here's how King County cities voted (Bothell, Pacific, and Auburn results are inclusive of their appendages into Snohomish/Pierce counties):

Basic takeaway is that the Eastside now votes like inner suburbs (quite a few >80% Biden precincts in Shoreline/Lake Forest Park/Redmond(!)/Mercer Island.

City                      Biden                   Trump              Other
Seattle                  88.45                   9.11                2.43
Lake Forest Park    80.59                   16.38               3.02
Shoreline              78.92                   18.30               2.79
Mercer Island        75.89                    21.52              2.49
Redmond              74.84                    21.90              3.27
Kenmore               73.65                   23.25               3.10
Tukwila                 73.09                   24.23               2.68
Issaquah               72.82                   24.33               2.85
Kirkland                72.60                   24.23               3.17
Beaux Art Village    71.78                  24.07               4.15
Burien                   71.98                  25.33                2.69
Bellevue                71.30                   25.81               2.89
Sammamish          70.84                   26.25                2.91 (! Voted for Obama by like 5 in '12)
Yarrow Point          70.69                   26.29                3.02 (! Literally voted for Romney)
Woodinville            70.03                  26.79                 3.17

Newcastle              69.15                  27.71                 3.15
Bothell                  68.86                   27.77                3.37 (King Co portion is >70 Biden)
SeaTac                  69.12                   28.17                2.71
Renton                  68.98                   28.09                2.93
Normandy Park      68.00                   29.50                2.50
Duvall                   67.01                   28.95                4.05 (I think Romney won here too)
Des Moines            67.04                   30.21                2.75
Snoqualmie            65.75                  30.62                 3.62
Medina                  65.52                   31.71                2.77
Kent                      64.50                   32.32                3.18
Clyde Hill               63.73                   33.19                3.08 (Voted for Romney)
Federal Way           63.25                   33.86                2.89
Carnation               62.78                   33.15                4.07
North Bend             62.48                   33.60                3.92
Hunts Point             59.42                   39.29                1.30 (Voted for Romney)
Auburn                   57.90                   39.00                3.10 (Pierce part voted to the left of King)
Maple Valley            56.31                   39.95                3.74 (50/50 in 2012)
Covington               55.98                   40.38                 3.71 (50/50 in 2012)
Algona                    52.65                   45.38                1.97 (This 51-46 Kerry, has barely budged)
Pacific                     50.85                   46.14                3.01

Black Diamond         46.52                  50.54                 2.94
Enumclaw                43.93                  52.76                 3.30

I don't know what disturbs me more- the fact that Mercer Island (1%) voted significantly to the left of both Bellevue and Redmond, or how 80% of the affluent Eastside is more D than 80% of more working-class/blue-collar South King County.

edit: I'm not 100% sure on this, but I think the part of Renton that's darker blue is more black? Auburn and Kirkland are definitely whiter than other South King County and Eastside suburbs.

South Seattle precinct swings imply that swings toward 45 in heavily black/Latino/Asian inner-city areas also occured here. We can clearly see in Skye's map that the International District (heavily Chinese, Vietnamese, and maybe Filipino) is a lighter shade of blue than the surrounding downtown area, or the more gentrified Capitol Hill and Central District to the east. Columbia City and Rainier Valley are also relatively anti-Biden compared to the rest of Seattle proper. Ballard and Wallingford being very dark blue doesn't surprise me.

[Seattle]

Skye, that's you! I gave you a follow on Twitter.

khuzifenq, yup, the darkest blue is also the Blackest part of Renton. I am too lazy to do it, but I have a creeping suspicion that the S. Seattle precincts that swung the hardest to Trump are New Holly and the other Hope VI communities down there. Also, Mercer Island has always voted to the left of Bellevue/Redmond. The fact that Redmond (and Sammamish!!!) is that close to MI speaks volumes to the impact of the Desi vote.

Paradoxically, I think Skyway (the bit of unincorporated King between Seattle and Renton - probably has the highest percent Black residents in the state) swung Biden?

I also calculated Snohomish County cities:

City                            Biden                   Trump              Other
Mountlake Terrace       73.00                    23.61              3.39
Edmonds                    71.81                    25.36              2.83 (Welcome to inner Suburbia!)
Brier                           68.69                   28.38              2.92
Lynwood                     67.00                    30.01              2.99
Mukilteo                      65.43                   31.58              2.98
Mill Creek                    63.82                   33.34              2.84 (voted to the left of Everett!!!?!)
Everett                        63.20                   32.93              3.87
Snohomish                  54.62                   41.36               4.02 (a far cry from Obama's 60-40 in '08)     
Lake Stevens               53.55                   42.29               4.16
Monroe                        51.71                   44.23               4.06
Marysville                    50.77                   45.11               4.13 (Trump 16 > Biden 20)

Sultan                          43.96                  49.96               6.08 (Surprisingly poor performance for Trump)
Stanwood                     44.09                  52.44                3.46
Arlington                      43.76                  52.13                4.10 (Obama 08 won here, but its quickly becoming exurban)

[Kamala's side hoe]

khuzifenq, yup, the darkest blue is also the Blackest part of Renton. I am too lazy to do it, but I have a creeping suspicion that the S. Seattle precincts that swung the hardest to Trump are New Holly and the other Hope VI communities down there. Also, Mercer Island has always voted to the left of Bellevue/Redmond. The fact that Redmond (and Sammamish!!!) is that close to MI speaks volumes to the impact of the Desi vote.

Paradoxically, I think Skyway (the bit of unincorporated King between Seattle and Renton - probably has the highest percent Black residents in the state) swung Biden?

Huh, I wonder why the housing project neighborhoods swung the hardest towards 45. I've heard isolated stories of East African gang activity/crime in those areas, don't know if that had any impact.

Never knew Mercer Island was a bastion of "Starbucks 1%er" liberalism. I figured it used to vote Republican along with Bellevue and Sammamish. Do you think Eastside Desi voters swung R like they supposedly did nationally, even if only by 1%?

[mileslunn]

While unincorporated how do Vashon Island vote and also how did Bainbridge Island in neighboring Kitsap County vote.  Liberal island enclaves.  Also do you have Pierce County by municipality as Tacoma I think went heavily for Biden and since Trump got north of 40% there its likely he won some municipalities there.

[Skye]

Skye, that's you! I gave you a follow on Twitter.

You'll have to tell me who are you cause a few people followed me recently and I don't know!

While unincorporated how do Vashon Island vote

Threw this one fairly quickly, so I might have missed a precinct, but I think the numbers are correct:

Vashon Island

Biden: 7,287 - 85.14%
Trump: 1,075 - 12.56%

[King of Kensington]

Never knew Mercer Island was a bastion of "Starbucks 1%er" liberalism. I figured it used to vote Republican along with Bellevue and Sammamish. Do you think Eastside Desi voters swung R like they supposedly did nationally, even if only by 1%?

Isn't Mercer Island Seattle's "Jewish suburb"?  Though in the Seattle context that probably means like 10% - it's not exactly say Short Hills NJ or Beachwood OH. 

[NOVA Green]

Never knew Mercer Island was a bastion of "Starbucks 1%er" liberalism. I figured it used to vote Republican along with Bellevue and Sammamish. Do you think Eastside Desi voters swung R like they supposedly did nationally, even if only by 1%?

Isn't Mercer Island Seattle's "Jewish suburb"?  Though in the Seattle context that probably means like 10% - it's not exactly say Short Hills NJ or Beachwood OH. 

There certainly is a large Jewish presence on Mercer Island, although not sure about the %.

I've been out there with my Sister and her family because of a large selection of Kosher items at a few of the larger grocery stores out there.

[kireev]

Seattle swung to Biden, along with pretty much every municipality in King thanks to consolidation of the extremely high level of 2016 third party performance (lots of places this was 8-12% of the vote.

It's also clear that there were South Seattle minority-heavy precincts that swung to Trump, sometimes quite dramatically. Precincts that voted 80% + Clinton, with Trump <10% ended up 75-25 at worst, or 80-20/high teens. Also notice how traditionally very democratic SeaTac didn't crack 70% for Biden?

With King county certification this past Tuesday, here's how King County cities voted (Bothell, Pacific, and Auburn results are inclusive of their appendages into Snohomish/Pierce counties):

Basic takeaway is that the Eastside now votes like inner suburbs (quite a few >80% Biden precincts in Shoreline/Lake Forest Park/Redmond(!)/Mercer Island.

City                      Biden                   Trump              Other
Seattle                  88.45                   9.11                2.43
Lake Forest Park    80.59                   16.38               3.02
Shoreline              78.92                   18.30               2.79
Mercer Island        75.89                    21.52              2.49
Redmond              74.84                    21.90              3.27
Kenmore               73.65                   23.25               3.10
Tukwila                 73.09                   24.23               2.68
Issaquah               72.82                   24.33               2.85
Kirkland                72.60                   24.23               3.17
Beaux Art Village    71.78                  24.07               4.15
Burien                   71.98                  25.33                2.69
Bellevue                71.30                   25.81               2.89
Sammamish          70.84                   26.25                2.91 (! Voted for Obama by like 5 in '12)
Yarrow Point          70.69                   26.29                3.02 (! Literally voted for Romney)
Woodinville            70.03                  26.79                 3.17

Newcastle              69.15                  27.71                 3.15
Bothell                  68.86                   27.77                3.37 (King Co portion is >70 Biden)
SeaTac                  69.12                   28.17                2.71
Renton                  68.98                   28.09                2.93
Normandy Park      68.00                   29.50                2.50
Duvall                   67.01                   28.95                4.05 (I think Romney won here too)
Des Moines            67.04                   30.21                2.75
Snoqualmie            65.75                  30.62                 3.62
Medina                  65.52                   31.71                2.77
Kent                      64.50                   32.32                3.18
Clyde Hill               63.73                   33.19                3.08 (Voted for Romney)
Federal Way           63.25                   33.86                2.89
Carnation               62.78                   33.15                4.07
North Bend             62.48                   33.60                3.92
Hunts Point             59.42                   39.29                1.30 (Voted for Romney)
Auburn                   57.90                   39.00                3.10 (Pierce part voted to the left of King)
Maple Valley            56.31                   39.95                3.74 (50/50 in 2012)
Covington               55.98                   40.38                 3.71 (50/50 in 2012)
Algona                    52.65                   45.38                1.97 (This 51-46 Kerry, has barely budged)
Pacific                     50.85                   46.14                3.01

Black Diamond         46.52                  50.54                 2.94
Enumclaw                43.93                  52.76                 3.30

I made a map of King County. Nice to know someone broke the results by municipality!

Great job! I wish we had a swing map compared to 2016 and 2012...

[mileslunn]

Anybody know what date California posts their municipal breakdown?  Be interested in Nevada with how Clark County went.  Did Trump hold Henderson or did that flip to Biden.  Other is New York state as Monroe and Erie counties now finalized but not sure if they give municipal breakdown but looks like Biden did a lot better than Clinton so wouldn't be surprised if Biden won rest of Erie county and almost certainly won rest of Monroe County.

[Kamala's side hoe]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/04/us/elections/florida-election-results-by-county.html
NYT Miami-Dade precinct graphic from Nov 4

From 538: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-we-know-about-how-white-and-latino-americans-voted-in-2020/

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1325809061384888321

Comments are interesting.

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Dr. Mahesh Reddy
@maperencap
·
Nov 9
Replying to
@mcimaps

How much is door knocking a factor? I think asking for vote personally has a huge impact  because after all we are humans and respond positively when some one acknowledge our value.

yankeemet
@sla5sh55
·
Nov 9
Big factor. Ds and Biden did none of that during Covid while Trump never stoped. It was too late in cycle when they started door knocking and doing real@field work. Thats def a major factor, especially as attacks are left unrebutted.

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Shaun is Unapologetically Puerto Rican Flag of Puerto Rico #BLM
@pneumaz
·
Nov 9
Replying to
@mcimaps
 and
@Nate_Cohn

I think this just goes to show that people don't want to be lumped together as a "minority" and expected to vote a certain way. They want to be talked to as individuals. I have heard so many times from GOP voters of color that they put being American above being a minority.

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David Donovan
@DavidDonovanNC
·
Nov 9
Replying to
@mcimaps
 and
@Nate_Cohn

Serious question: Trump changed his residence to Florida this year and made his property in Palm Beach an extension of the White House for four years. Could that be part of why Trump did, comparatively, much better in Florida than he did in any other heavily contested state?

[mileslunn]

For Erie County, New York and these are the final posted on twitter WRGZ

Buffalo:

Biden 79,581 (79%)
Trump: 18,751 (18.6%)
Total: 100,792

Rest of Erie County

Biden: 187,593 (49.9%)
Trump: 178,776 (47.5%)
Total: 375,995

Biden won Buffalo, Lackawanna, Tonowanda (city), Amherst, Aurora, Cheektowaga (gain from Trump), Tonowanda (town)

[mileslunn]

Curious why New York has Conservative party and Working Families yet former has some nominee as GOP and latter same as Democrat so why some split votes, any rationale here even though same president?

[sguberman]

Can someone do Phoenix vs the rest of Maricopa County

[mileslunn]

Here is for Albany county, New York

Albany:

Biden: 29,243 (81.2%)
Trump: 5,727 (15.9%)
Total: 36,001

Rest of Albany County

Biden: 70,231 (59.2%)
Trump: 45,354 (38.2%)
Total 118,276

[mileslunn]

Can someone do Phoenix vs the rest of Maricopa County

I would like that too and also Las Vegas vs. rest of Clark County.  For New York and California, they are pretty good of posting results by municipality so just waiting for them to be finalized.

[NOVA Green]

Can someone do Phoenix vs the rest of Maricopa County

I would like that too and also Las Vegas vs. rest of Clark County.  For New York and California, they are pretty good of posting results by municipality so just waiting for them to be finalized.

I'll try to take a look at Phoenix when I get off work this evening.

Assuming nothing major changed, I should already have the precincts coded for Maricopa County.

[NOVA Green]

Can someone do Phoenix vs the rest of Maricopa County

I would like that too and also Las Vegas vs. rest of Clark County.  For New York and California, they are pretty good of posting results by municipality so just waiting for them to be finalized.

I'll try to take a look at Phoenix when I get off work this evening.

Assuming nothing major changed, I should already have the precincts coded for Maricopa County.

So Maricopa is taking a bit longer than I was hoping....

The text file download is extremely messy, and although I have been working through manual data entry entries from the PDF, without even trying to code the (16) additional precincts added since '16.... flip side is:

Bad news, not gonna dump it tonight, and possibly not even Tomorrow because it is more labor intensive than I was hoping, and I have a few other items on my research project list for Atlas so tired from spending well over an hour literally entering missing data fields from the pivot table manually from the Maricopa County PDF.

Good news, I should be able to come up Maricopa County Precinct breakdowns for the GE-PRES likely at the latest Sunday.   

(I have my own selfish reasons for working on this project, so it is not mere "Atlas Altruism" crunching 2020 GE PRES numbers here to give some "goodies to the hoodies"   

[mileslunn]

Got one for Shelby County and Memphis, just need to enter into spreadsheet, but should get that later today.

[mileslunn]

Here it is

Memphis:

Biden: 175,428 (76.8%)
Trump: 49,272 (21.6%)
Total: 228,521

Rest of Shelby County

Trump:  80,543 (52.5%)
Biden:  70,677 (46.1%)
Total: 153,362

[mileslunn]

Here is exact for Atlanta vs. rest of Fulton County.  Note this is only Atlanta portion in Fulton County, excludes DeKalb county which doesn't breakdown by municipality, but probably still similar to below.

Atlanta:

Biden:  179,264 (81.8%)
Trump:  37,132 (17%)
Total:  219,047

rest of Fulton County

Biden:  201,880 (66.1%)
Trump: 100,108 (32.8%)
Total:  305,623

Only municipalities Trump won are Chattahoochee Hills (fairly rural) and Milton (on extreme northern edge, ironically Biden won Mountain Park which is fairly rural and 95% white).  Even northern parts of Fulton County which normally go GOP swung to Biden.

[King of Kensington]

Here is for Albany county, New York

Albany:

Biden: 29,243 (81.2%)
Trump: 5,727 (15.9%)
Total: 36,001

Rest of Albany County

Biden: 70,231 (59.2%)
Trump: 45,354 (38.2%)
Total 118,276

Albany was more D than NYC.

[forsythvoter]

Here it is

Memphis:

Biden: 175,428 (76.8%)
Trump: 49,272 (21.6%)
Total: 228,521

Rest of Shelby County

Trump:  80,543 (52.5%)
Biden:  70,677 (46.1%)
Total: 153,362

Interesting that Memphis cast more votes than Atlanta, but the suburbs have so few votes compared to the ATL suburbs. Does Memphis city just contain a lot of suburban areas similar to Charlotte?

[mileslunn]

Here it is

Memphis:

Biden: 175,428 (76.8%)
Trump: 49,272 (21.6%)
Total: 228,521

Rest of Shelby County

Trump:  80,543 (52.5%)
Biden:  70,677 (46.1%)
Total: 153,362

Interesting that Memphis cast more votes than Atlanta, but the suburbs have so few votes compared to the ATL suburbs. Does Memphis city just contain a lot of suburban areas similar to Charlotte?

It does indeed although it seems in Shelby County very racially polarized and perhaps municipal boundaries divided on racial lines as Memphis is over 60% African-American, while suburbs predominately white.

[mileslunn]

Here is Minneapolis vs. rest of Hennepin County

Minneapolis

Biden: 204,839 (86.4%)
Trump: 26,792 (11.3%)
Total: 236,974

Rest of Hennepin County

Biden:  327,769 (63.2%)
Trump: 179,174 (34.5%)
Total:  518,973

Corcoran, Dayton, Greenfield, Hanover, Independence, Loretto, Maple Plain, Minnetrista, Mound, Rockford, Rockford, Rogers, St. Bonificiaus only Trump wins although all on west end which is more exurban than suburban.  In fact very few suburbs anywhere in Twin Cities metro area went for Trump.  It was more exurbs or rural parts of metro counties.  Interestingly enough Trump did worse in Hennepin County outside Minneapolis than Romney did in the entire county showing just how toxic his form of conservatism was compared to Romney or more traditional Republican style.