If Beto O'Rourke were the nominee...
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 30, 2024, 04:15:39 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  If Beto O'Rourke were the nominee...		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: ...What would the margin in Texas be?
#1
Trump 10%+		  
#2
Trump 5-10%		  
#3
Trump 0-5%		  
#4
O'Rourke 0-5%		  
#5
O'Rourke 5-10%		  
#6
O'Rourke 10%+		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 63

Author Topic: If Beto O'Rourke were the nominee...  (Read 638 times)
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 11, 2020, 06:45:32 PM »
Since we're doing these.
Logged
Real Texan Politics
EEllis02
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,596
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -1.57

P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2020, 06:52:29 PM »
If it weren't for the gun comments, he probably could've had a better chance here under the right circumstances.

I do think Texas would've swung a little more in Beto's favor but he wouldn't have won it. Without the gun comments it could've either went from Beto +0.5 to Trump+2. But with everything that has happened (and the gun comments as previously mentioned), it probably would've been something like Trump +3-5.
Logged
James Ericson
mbc
Rookie
**
Posts: 53


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2020, 06:59:01 PM »
O'Rourke would not have the same issue in the RGV as Biden and would have been stronger in Harris County. Trump would have had difficulty holding the state. Final prediction= D+0.3
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2020, 07:00:02 PM »
Quote from: mbc on November 11, 2020, 06:59:01 PM
O'Rourke would not have the same issue in the RGV as Biden and would have been stronger in Harris County. Trump would have had difficulty holding the state. Final prediction= D+0.3

Even with those gun comments? I'm not so sure, to say the least.
Logged
Real Texan Politics
EEllis02
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,596
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -1.57

P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2020, 07:02:41 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on November 11, 2020, 07:00:02 PM
Quote from: mbc on November 11, 2020, 06:59:01 PM
O'Rourke would not have the same issue in the RGV as Biden and would have been stronger in Harris County. Trump would have had difficulty holding the state. Final prediction= D+0.3

Even with those gun comments? I'm not so sure, to say the least.

I think without the gun comments that scenario could've been likely, and maybe he could've flipped Collin, Denton, Jefferson, and Nueces as well.
Logged
John Dule
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,410
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.57, S: -7.50

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2020, 07:06:36 PM »
Trump would've won by much more.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,317
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2020, 07:46:32 PM »
2018 Beto? A measurable Improvement, and I sincerely doubt that a long time El Paso congressman would have f***** up Latino voter Outreach the way the Biden campaign apparently did.

2020 Beto who tried breaking his floundering primary campaign out of the pack with a desperate attempt to Center his floundering campaign on being rapidly pro-gun-control? He would have been annihilated.
Logged
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2020, 08:03:49 PM »
Trump +9 to 12%
Logged
Coolface Sock #42069
whitesox130
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,694
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.39, S: 2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 11, 2020, 08:34:08 PM »
Worse than Biden. I can already imagine that Reddit comment of his in Trump/NRA ads. The ads would just write themselves. Rural turnout would be through the roof.
Logged
JGibson
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,017
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.00, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 11, 2020, 08:43:33 PM »
And his comments about wanting to revoke tax exemptions for churches that oppose same-sex marriage wouldn't play well either, and may arguably be more catastrophic than his guns comments.
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,618
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 11, 2020, 08:43:46 PM »
A lot depends on his gun/church comments. Both of which were stupid.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 11, 2020, 08:46:36 PM »
His tendency to make stupid comments and be online would be exploited throughout the race. TX would trend D relative to Biden's result, but still swing slightly Republican because he'd end up doing worse in the NPV.
Logged
Bootes Void
iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,677
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 11, 2020, 08:52:10 PM »
2018 Beto may do better than Biden considering the enthusiasm, charisma, speaking ability, strong outreach to latinos and good ground ground game

2019-2020 Beto would lose badly after some of the more extreme positions he has taken especially on guns and revoking tax exempt status from churches

Overall Beto should have ran for senate against Cornyn instead of president, but he would lose by Cruz margin(3%) instead of Hegar margin(10%+). He may help Biden a little as well on the margins in Texas and some house seats


Against 2018 Beto? I doubt it
Logged
SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,565
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 11, 2020, 09:28:11 PM »
Trump by less than 5%.
Logged
BaldEagle1991
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,659
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 11, 2020, 11:54:28 PM »
Quote from: Tucker Carlson 2024 on November 11, 2020, 07:02:41 PM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on November 11, 2020, 07:00:02 PM
Quote from: mbc on November 11, 2020, 06:59:01 PM
O'Rourke would not have the same issue in the RGV as Biden and would have been stronger in Harris County. Trump would have had difficulty holding the state. Final prediction= D+0.3

Even with those gun comments? I'm not so sure, to say the least.

I think without the gun comments that scenario could've been likely, and maybe he could've flipped Collin, Denton, Jefferson, and Nueces as well.

Beto would likely go up in Harris even with the gun comments
Logged
Motorcity
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,471


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 12, 2020, 08:57:58 AM »
Beto would have been a great candidate if...

1. If entered the race at the peak of his popularity
2. Went on cable news
3. Did not do stupid photo ops at the dentist and road trips
4. Never said those gun comments

He could have appealed to progressives and moderates.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,827
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 12, 2020, 03:18:01 PM »
Probably 6-9 points so a bit better than Hillary Clinton but worse than Biden.  His promise to confiscate guns would have hurt him Texas where there are more guns than people.  That works in liberal coastal states but not Texas.
Logged
Malarkey Decider
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 368
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 12, 2020, 03:46:23 PM »

Why are you like this lmao
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.045 seconds with 14 queries.