If Beto O'Rourke were the nominee...
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  If Beto O'Rourke were the nominee...		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: ...What would the margin in Texas be?
#1
Trump 10%+		  
#2
Trump 5-10%		  
#3
Trump 0-5%		  
#4
O'Rourke 0-5%		  
#5
O'Rourke 5-10%		  
#6
O'Rourke 10%+		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 63

Author Topic: If Beto O'Rourke were the nominee...  (Read 751 times)
Alben Barkley
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« on: November 11, 2020, 06:45:32 PM »
Since we're doing these.
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Real Texan Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2020, 06:52:29 PM »
If it weren't for the gun comments, he probably could've had a better chance here under the right circumstances.

I do think Texas would've swung a little more in Beto's favor but he wouldn't have won it. Without the gun comments it could've either went from Beto +0.5 to Trump+2. But with everything that has happened (and the gun comments as previously mentioned), it probably would've been something like Trump +3-5.
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James Ericson
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« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2020, 06:59:01 PM »
O'Rourke would not have the same issue in the RGV as Biden and would have been stronger in Harris County. Trump would have had difficulty holding the state. Final prediction= D+0.3
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2020, 07:00:02 PM »
Quote from: mbc on November 11, 2020, 06:59:01 PM
O'Rourke would not have the same issue in the RGV as Biden and would have been stronger in Harris County. Trump would have had difficulty holding the state. Final prediction= D+0.3

Even with those gun comments? I'm not so sure, to say the least.
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Real Texan Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2020, 07:02:41 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on November 11, 2020, 07:00:02 PM
Quote from: mbc on November 11, 2020, 06:59:01 PM
O'Rourke would not have the same issue in the RGV as Biden and would have been stronger in Harris County. Trump would have had difficulty holding the state. Final prediction= D+0.3

Even with those gun comments? I'm not so sure, to say the least.

I think without the gun comments that scenario could've been likely, and maybe he could've flipped Collin, Denton, Jefferson, and Nueces as well.
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The People's Liberation Army of Rancho Cucamonga
John Dule
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« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2020, 07:06:36 PM »
Trump would've won by much more.
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Badger
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« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2020, 07:46:32 PM »
2018 Beto? A measurable Improvement, and I sincerely doubt that a long time El Paso congressman would have f***** up Latino voter Outreach the way the Biden campaign apparently did.

2020 Beto who tried breaking his floundering primary campaign out of the pack with a desperate attempt to Center his floundering campaign on being rapidly pro-gun-control? He would have been annihilated.
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SN2903
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« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2020, 08:03:49 PM »
Trump +9 to 12%
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #8 on: November 11, 2020, 08:34:08 PM »
Worse than Biden. I can already imagine that Reddit comment of his in Trump/NRA ads. The ads would just write themselves. Rural turnout would be through the roof.
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JGibson
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« Reply #9 on: November 11, 2020, 08:43:33 PM »
And his comments about wanting to revoke tax exemptions for churches that oppose same-sex marriage wouldn't play well either, and may arguably be more catastrophic than his guns comments.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #10 on: November 11, 2020, 08:43:46 PM »
A lot depends on his gun/church comments. Both of which were stupid.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: November 11, 2020, 08:46:36 PM »
His tendency to make stupid comments and be online would be exploited throughout the race. TX would trend D relative to Biden's result, but still swing slightly Republican because he'd end up doing worse in the NPV.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #12 on: November 11, 2020, 08:52:10 PM »
2018 Beto may do better than Biden considering the enthusiasm, charisma, speaking ability, strong outreach to latinos and good ground ground game

2019-2020 Beto would lose badly after some of the more extreme positions he has taken especially on guns and revoking tax exempt status from churches

Overall Beto should have ran for senate against Cornyn instead of president, but he would lose by Cruz margin(3%) instead of Hegar margin(10%+). He may help Biden a little as well on the margins in Texas and some house seats


Against 2018 Beto? I doubt it
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #13 on: November 11, 2020, 09:28:11 PM »
Trump by less than 5%.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #14 on: November 11, 2020, 11:54:28 PM »
Quote from: Tucker Carlson 2024 on November 11, 2020, 07:02:41 PM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on November 11, 2020, 07:00:02 PM
Quote from: mbc on November 11, 2020, 06:59:01 PM
O'Rourke would not have the same issue in the RGV as Biden and would have been stronger in Harris County. Trump would have had difficulty holding the state. Final prediction= D+0.3

Even with those gun comments? I'm not so sure, to say the least.

I think without the gun comments that scenario could've been likely, and maybe he could've flipped Collin, Denton, Jefferson, and Nueces as well.

Beto would likely go up in Harris even with the gun comments
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Motorcity
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« Reply #15 on: November 12, 2020, 08:57:58 AM »
Beto would have been a great candidate if...

1. If entered the race at the peak of his popularity
2. Went on cable news
3. Did not do stupid photo ops at the dentist and road trips
4. Never said those gun comments

He could have appealed to progressives and moderates.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #16 on: November 12, 2020, 03:18:01 PM »
Probably 6-9 points so a bit better than Hillary Clinton but worse than Biden.  His promise to confiscate guns would have hurt him Texas where there are more guns than people.  That works in liberal coastal states but not Texas.
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Coconut Decider
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« Reply #17 on: November 12, 2020, 03:46:23 PM »

Why are you like this lmao
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