Massive exit poll discrepancies
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Author Topic: Massive exit poll discrepancies  (Read 501 times)
Ferguson97
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« on: November 11, 2020, 05:08:48 PM »
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LostFellow
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« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2020, 05:29:56 PM »
Yeah the AP Votecast seems much more accurate given that it has coronavirus as the nation's top issue at 41%, compared to 17%, below racial inequality and the economy for the Edison Research exit poll.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2020, 05:34:49 PM »
Quote from: LostHerro on November 11, 2020, 05:29:56 PM
Yeah the AP Votecast seems much more accurate given that it has coronavirus as the nation's top issue at 41%, compared to 17%, below racial inequality and the economy for the Edison Research exit poll.

Also I don’t believe for one second college white women voted for Trump. Didn’t even last time.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2020, 05:45:03 PM »
Claims of a large increased Black vote for Trump (12% or as high as 20% among Black men) aren't showing in AP survey (Trump only got 8%)
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2020, 05:50:20 PM »
Quote from: King of Kensington on November 11, 2020, 05:45:03 PM
Claims of a large increased Black vote for Trump (12% or as high as 20% among Black men) aren't showing in AP survey (Trump only got 8%)

Also seems more believable to me.
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Malarkey Decider
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« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2020, 06:03:53 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on November 11, 2020, 05:50:20 PM
Quote from: King of Kensington on November 11, 2020, 05:45:03 PM
Claims of a large increased Black vote for Trump (12% or as high as 20% among Black men) aren't showing in AP survey (Trump only got 8%)

Also seems more believable to me.

In the precinct/county data I've looked at, trump probably did increase his share of the black vote to like 10/11%.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2020, 06:05:22 PM »
Quote from: Malarkey Decider on November 11, 2020, 06:03:53 PM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on November 11, 2020, 05:50:20 PM
Quote from: King of Kensington on November 11, 2020, 05:45:03 PM
Claims of a large increased Black vote for Trump (12% or as high as 20% among Black men) aren't showing in AP survey (Trump only got 8%)

Also seems more believable to me.

In the precinct/county data I've looked at, trump probably did increase his share of the black vote to like 10/11%.

Didn't he get that in 2016 though?
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2020, 06:09:34 PM »
The AP Votecast is probably more reliable as it is a more detailed statistical model, rather than a mere poll.
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Malarkey Decider
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« Reply #8 on: November 11, 2020, 06:14:18 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on November 11, 2020, 06:05:22 PM
Quote from: Malarkey Decider on November 11, 2020, 06:03:53 PM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on November 11, 2020, 05:50:20 PM
Quote from: King of Kensington on November 11, 2020, 05:45:03 PM
Claims of a large increased Black vote for Trump (12% or as high as 20% among Black men) aren't showing in AP survey (Trump only got 8%)

Also seems more believable to me.

In the precinct/county data I've looked at, trump probably did increase his share of the black vote to like 10/11%.

Didn't he get that in 2016 though?
No, he got like 8/9.

For example, I looked at 1 90%+ Black Precinct in Clayton County, GA that went from being 95-3 Clinton to 93-5 Biden. Turnout was up so Biden actually netted more votes than Clinton did.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #9 on: November 11, 2020, 06:34:19 PM »
Quote from: Malarkey Decider on November 11, 2020, 06:14:18 PM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on November 11, 2020, 06:05:22 PM
Quote from: Malarkey Decider on November 11, 2020, 06:03:53 PM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on November 11, 2020, 05:50:20 PM
Quote from: King of Kensington on November 11, 2020, 05:45:03 PM
Claims of a large increased Black vote for Trump (12% or as high as 20% among Black men) aren't showing in AP survey (Trump only got 8%)

Also seems more believable to me.

In the precinct/county data I've looked at, trump probably did increase his share of the black vote to like 10/11%.

Didn't he get that in 2016 though?
No, he got like 8/9.

For example, I looked at 1 90%+ Black Precinct in Clayton County, GA that went from being 95-3 Clinton to 93-5 Biden. Turnout was up so Biden actually netted more votes than Clinton did.

Well even so, a swing of only a point or two is not as drastic as people made it out to be. Certainly nothing compared to what we saw with Latinos.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: November 11, 2020, 07:07:12 PM »
Fox/AP seem more reliable, especially with Trump's 47/51 approval lining up with what the NPV will be around.

Their PA poll, though... is iffy. Trump and Pence positive favorabilities, Biden -5 and Harris -10 with Biden winning the state....
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Georg Ebner
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« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2020, 05:08:54 AM »
Here are both ExitPolls, in a more handily format (for that of EdisonResearch relying on CNN&NBC, for the other one on FOX-News):

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1ZQoSUpmzmDmiLlvOZEYwnpvib1rtSQ7l?usp=sharing
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: November 12, 2020, 05:11:20 AM »
The AP VoteCast is definitely the better one.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: November 12, 2020, 07:14:34 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 12, 2020, 05:11:20 AM
The AP VoteCast is definitely the better one.

I think nationally, possibly, but in the states, IDK.

Just look at PA:
Trump fav: 51/49
Pence fav: 51/45
Biden fav: 47/51
Harris fav: 43/53

Republican party fav: 50/48
Democratic party fav: 44/54

More Rs turned out in PA it appears, so Trump/Pence would look a little bit better than true reality, but you would not expect Biden would be winning PA with any of those #s.

AP/FOX also has PA at R+4 ID, while Edison has R+1, which seems a bit more believable
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Person Man
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« Reply #14 on: November 12, 2020, 07:50:09 AM »
Or hey. It could be that all the allegations of voter fraud are covering up the real allegations of voter fraud.
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