23 out of 24 largest counties in PA swung towards Biden

[prag_prog]

Biden has made consistent gains in each one of these counties except Philly. Funnily, Philly is the county where Trump's campaign has been claiming fraud for the last week.

There are still some votes left to be counted in Philly which might increase Biden's margin there but it does look like it's unlikely Biden is gonna improve on Clinton's 2016 performance in Philly.

Could this be due to college students not being in campus or Trump's improvement with non-whites or did Dems max out in Philly in previous cycle?

https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1326616036473532417

[Frenchrepublican]

Biden has made consistent gains in each one of these counties except Philly. Funnily, Philly is the county where Trump's campaign has been claiming fraud for the last week.

There are still some votes left to be counted in Philly which might increase Biden's margin there but it does look like it's unlikely Biden is gonna improve on Clinton's 2016 performance in Philly.

Could this be due to college students not being in campus or Trump's improvement with non-whites or did Dems max out in Philly in previous cycle?

https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1326616036473532417

Luzerne swinging 4 points to the left, that's noteworthy.

[OBD]

You love to see it!

[ilikeverin]

Could this be due to college students not being in campus

I honestly think this is not getting enough play in the media. I can see it pretty visibly in the town trend map of Connecticut, for instance. The (Atlas) blue towns are basically a perfect map of the largest residential campuses in the state (-Middletown, +North Canaan).

[Progressive Pessimist]

The whole Scranton Joe thing really seemed to have paid off.

[IceAgeComing]

Would like to congratulate the Democrats on their great voter fraud operation in Philadelphia that successfully delivered... a four point swing to the Republicans.

[DINGO Joe]

Would like to congratulate the Democrats on their great voter fraud operation in Philadelphia that successfully delivered... a four point swing to the Republicans.

I heard from somebody while in line at Wendy's that Rudy voted 25,000 times in Philly using the Four Seasons as his address.

[Non Swing Voter]

Might also be gentrification.  As cities get an influx of white residents they could become slightly less democratic.  The vast majority vote for democrats but not at the rate that displaced African Americans do.  But the converse is true for the immediate suburbs which are diversifying.

[mileslunn]

No real surprise.  Most exit polls show Trump did somewhat better amongst African-Americans, particularly Black males under 45.  Obviously that group went heavily for Biden, but I think Black support for Democrats was sky high under Obama and starting to see a return to pre-Obama levels which was usually high 80s for Democrats and around 12% for GOP.  Still Philadelphia even if Trump did better helped Biden in sense turnout was much higher so I believe percentage gap narrowed, but raw vote gap widened.

[wbrocks67]

Could this be due to college students not being in campus

I honestly think this is not getting enough play in the media. I can see it pretty visibly in the town trend map of Connecticut, for instance. The (Atlas) blue towns are basically a perfect map of the largest residential campuses in the state (-Middletown, +North Canaan).

Yep. Biden will likely grow the gap between them, but Trump will prob end up with 17% this year instead of 15% in 2016. I think Biden did get hurt from the lack of college students in the area. Because given what has happened elsewhere, it doesn't make sense that Biden would be lower in Philly, while the other Dem hub in PA, Allegheny, lurched 4%+ leftward compared to 2016.

Philly also only has 63% turnout right now too.

[Alben Barkley]

Could this be due to college students not being in campus

I honestly think this is not getting enough play in the media. I can see it pretty visibly in the town trend map of Connecticut, for instance. The (Atlas) blue towns are basically a perfect map of the largest residential campuses in the state (-Middletown, +North Canaan).

Yep. Biden will likely grow the gap between them, but Trump will prob end up with 17% this year instead of 15% in 2016. I think Biden did get hurt from the lack of college students in the area. Because given what has happened elsewhere, it doesn't make sense that Biden would be lower in Philly, while the other Dem hub in PA, Allegheny, lurched 4%+ leftward compared to 2016.

Philly also only has 63% turnout right now too.

Well Pittsburgh is obviously whiter than Philly, and Biden improved more with whites. I can buy then that he improved more there just like he did in places like Erie County.

[wbrocks67]

It should be noted that if Trump did better with blacks and Latinos nationwide, that wasn't the case in Pennsylvania, per exits. Biden actually did better with both groups over Hillary in 2016.

Which makes the Philly turnout thing stranger ... which also makes me think it was things like college kids being gone, etc.

But again, we still have a nice little chunk of votes out in Philly still.

[lfromnj]

It should be noted that if Trump did better with blacks and Latinos nationwide, that wasn't the case in Pennsylvania, per exits. Biden actually did better with both groups over Hillary in 2016.

Which makes the Philly turnout thing stranger ... which also makes me think it was things like college kids being gone, etc.

But again, we still have a nice little chunk of votes out in Philly still.

Omfg , exit polls are trash rn just like all your beloved PPP polls.

[Rand]

The whole Scranton Joe thing really seemed to have paid off.

But muh Scranton Joe...

hahahaha