Iowa Statewide Races Megathread 2022: The (Former) Elastic Heartland

[Girlytree]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DeidreDeJear/status/1426584557986488322

Deidre DeJear is running for governor

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R

[MT Treasurer]

New Selzer/DMR poll:

Reynolds approval: 53/43 (+10) (was +7 in June)
Reynolds favorability: 55/40 (+15)

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/18/iowa-poll-kim-reynolds-ratings-up-education-economy-down-covid/8378073002/

Wow.

Senate/Biden numbers to be released soon.

[Calthrina950]

New Selzer/DMR poll:

Reynolds approval: 53/43 (+10) (was +7 in June)
Reynolds favorability: 55/40 (+15)

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/18/iowa-poll-kim-reynolds-ratings-up-education-economy-down-covid/8378073002/

Wow.

Senate/Biden numbers to be released soon.

Reynolds will have no difficulty winning reelection. And judging from this, I suspect Grassley is ahead by a very comfortable margin and that Biden is underwater by some ways.

[Heebie Jeebie]

New Selzer/DMR poll:

Reynolds approval: 53/43 (+10) (was +7 in June)
Reynolds favorability: 55/40 (+15)

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/18/iowa-poll-kim-reynolds-ratings-up-education-economy-down-covid/8378073002/

Wow.

Senate/Biden numbers to be released soon.

God I find this so frustrating.  Reynolds is an absolute travesty, and she's coasting.  What the hell is wrong with this state?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Selzer/DMR poll:

Reynolds approval: 53/43 (+10) (was +7 in June)
Reynolds favorability: 55/40 (+15)

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/18/iowa-poll-kim-reynolds-ratings-up-education-economy-down-covid/8378073002/

Wow.

Senate/Biden numbers to be released soon.

God I find this so frustrating.  Reynolds is an absolute travesty, and she's coasting.  What the hell is wrong with this state?

I visited IA they like Ernst and Reynolds, living next door to IL, Ernst and Reynolds and Grassley are gonna stay as long as they want

[SnowLabrador]

New Selzer/DMR poll:

Reynolds approval: 53/43 (+10) (was +7 in June)
Reynolds favorability: 55/40 (+15)

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/18/iowa-poll-kim-reynolds-ratings-up-education-economy-down-covid/8378073002/

Wow.

Senate/Biden numbers to be released soon.

Reynolds will have no difficulty winning reelection. And judging from this, I suspect Grassley is ahead by a very comfortable margin and that Biden is underwater by some ways.

I'm aware uniform swing doesn't happen, but this can't be good news for Democratic chances in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2022.

[Progressive Pessimist]

New Selzer/DMR poll:

Reynolds approval: 53/43 (+10) (was +7 in June)
Reynolds favorability: 55/40 (+15)

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/18/iowa-poll-kim-reynolds-ratings-up-education-economy-down-covid/8378073002/

Wow.

Senate/Biden numbers to be released soon.

Reynolds will have no difficulty winning reelection. And judging from this, I suspect Grassley is ahead by a very comfortable margin and that Biden is underwater by some ways.

I'm aware uniform swing doesn't happen, but this can't be good news for Democratic chances in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2022.

People said that about the Selzer polls before the 2020 election, and while they were very accurate about Iowa and the rural Midwest as a whole (possibly being the only really accurate poll of the whole election cycle) it did not apply to the entirety of states which Biden still won.

[wbrocks67]

Reynolds approval is 53/43 in new Selzer poll

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/18/iowa-poll-kim-reynolds-ratings-up-education-economy-down-covid/8378073002/

Honestly just a joke. It's hilarious to me that Reynolds has actively been working against trying to get out of the pandemic and yet she's positive on all fronts, and naturally Biden is way upside down.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Reynolds approval is 53/43 in new Selzer poll

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/18/iowa-poll-kim-reynolds-ratings-up-education-economy-down-covid/8378073002/

Honestly just a joke. It's hilarious to me that Reynolds has actively been working against trying to get out of the pandemic and yet she's positive on all fronts, and naturally Biden is way upside down.

It's a joke, but if you lived here like I do you'd start to get it.  This is a state full of rural, aging, declining communities.  There's no productivity and nothing to be proud of--just industrial agriculture poisoning our air, rivers, lakes, and children.  The people in this state offer nothing to rest of the nation except cheap corn.  Those with any sense are getting out, and those that remain just desperately want to close their eyes and ears to the terrible reality around them.  I've lived all over the country, but until moving here I'd never been surrounded by so many people so fanatically committed to their own ignorance.

[wbrocks67]

Reynolds approval is 53/43 in new Selzer poll

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/18/iowa-poll-kim-reynolds-ratings-up-education-economy-down-covid/8378073002/

Honestly just a joke. It's hilarious to me that Reynolds has actively been working against trying to get out of the pandemic and yet she's positive on all fronts, and naturally Biden is way upside down.

It's a joke, but if you lived here like I do you'd start to get it.  This is a state full of rural, aging, declining communities.  There's no productivity and nothing to be proud of--just industrial agriculture poisoning our air, rivers, lakes, and children.  The people in this state offer nothing to rest of the nation except cheap corn.  Those with any sense are getting out, and those that remain just desperately want to close their eyes and ears to the terrible reality around them.  I've lived all over the country, but until moving here I'd never been surrounded by so many people so fanatically committed to their own ignorance.

Yeah, IA is interesting - it's a bit what I expected but also not. Though it seems like the perfect microcosm of the states where people are leaving, leading it to be majority old and white.

[Spectator]

Red state gives Republicans good polls and bad approvals for the Democrat POTUS?! Say it ain’t true!

[Xing]

Yeah, nothing surprising about Iowa giving good numbers for Republicans. I have no idea why some still think the state is winnable for Democrats. Roy Moore would win Iowa by mid-high single digits.

[SInNYC]

Reynolds approval is 53/43 in new Selzer poll

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/18/iowa-poll-kim-reynolds-ratings-up-education-economy-down-covid/8378073002/

Honestly just a joke. It's hilarious to me that Reynolds has actively been working against trying to get out of the pandemic and yet she's positive on all fronts, and naturally Biden is way upside down.

It's a joke, but if you lived here like I do you'd start to get it.  This is a state full of rural, aging, declining communities.  There's no productivity and nothing to be proud of--just industrial agriculture poisoning our air, rivers, lakes, and children.  The people in this state offer nothing to rest of the nation except cheap corn.  Those with any sense are getting out, and those that remain just desperately want to close their eyes and ears to the terrible reality around them.  I've lived all over the country, but until moving here I'd never been surrounded by so many people so fanatically committed to their own ignorance.

Yeah, IA is interesting - it's a bit what I expected but also not. Though it seems like the perfect microcosm of the states where people are leaving, leading it to be majority old and white.

Old yes. But IA was always very white, and it is somewhat less white than it used to be (Hispanic labor moving in). But family farms are now megacorporation farms, and Ds do nothing to avoid (and often encourge) the conflation of whats good for megacorporations vs people in IA.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yeah, nothing surprising about Iowa giving good numbers for Republicans. I have no idea why some still think the state is winnable for Democrats. Roy Moore would win Iowa by mid-high single digits.

Agreed. But what does still surprise is that some still seem to be under the impression that the state is still some kind of national bellwether. It isn't. It's polling results can't always be so easily translated to the nation as a whole.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, nothing surprising about Iowa giving good numbers for Republicans. I have no idea why some still think the state is winnable for Democrats. Roy Moore would win Iowa by mid-high single digits.

Agreed. But what does still surprise is that some still seem to be under the impression that the state is still some kind of national bellwether. It isn't. It's polling results can't always be so easily translated to the nation as a whole.

It is a swing state do you think Grassley is gonna win by 20/ no he isn't, he will win by 10 or less, he only won by such a large amount last time he ran against Patty wand Hillary didn't contest IA in 2016

[Brittain33]

Yeah, nothing surprising about Iowa giving good numbers for Republicans. I have no idea why some still think the state is winnable for Democrats. Roy Moore would win Iowa by mid-high single digits.

It's hard to put the 2018 House races in the larger context sometimes.

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah, nothing surprising about Iowa giving good numbers for Republicans. I have no idea why some still think the state is winnable for Democrats. Roy Moore would win Iowa by mid-high single digits.

It's hard to put the 2018 House races in the larger context sometimes.

People keep pointing to the 2018 House races in Iowa, but that was a Dem wave year (D+8 popular vote).

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, nothing surprising about Iowa giving good numbers for Republicans. I have no idea why some still think the state is winnable for Democrats. Roy Moore would win Iowa by mid-high single digits.

It's hard to put the 2018 House races in the larger context sometimes.

People keep pointing to the 2018 House races in Iowa, but that was a Dem wave year (D+8 popular vote).

With a very D-friendly map/a serious D advantage in geography (one ultra-safe R district and three relatively close ones). Reynolds winning statewide despite losing 3/4 CDs should have been another sign to people that the 2018 House results were not indicative of the state's political trend/competitiveness.

[MT Treasurer]

IA-Cygnal (R):

11. Do you feel that Kim Reynolds has done enough as Governor to deserve re-election, or is it time
to give someone new a chance?

53.3% Deserves re-election
43.9% Time for something new

Reynolds favorability: 57/37 (+20)

https://itrfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ITR-Foundation-Poll-Toplines-10-22-2021.pdf

[Spectator]

IA-Cygnal (R):

11. Do you feel that Kim Reynolds has done enough as Governor to deserve re-election, or is it time
to give someone new a chance?

53.3% Deserves re-election
43.9% Time for something new

Reynolds favorability: 57/37 (+20)

https://itrfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ITR-Foundation-Poll-Toplines-10-22-2021.pdf

RIP Rob Sand’s political career. Iowa Democrats ought to just move to Minnesota and Wisconsin en masse if they want to ever be relevant in an election again.

[MT Treasurer]

RIP Rob Sand’s political career. Iowa Democrats ought to just move to Minnesota and Wisconsin en masse if they want to ever be relevant in an election again.

If I were Tom Miller or Mike Fitzgerald, I’d call it a day in 2022. Remaining undefeated for that long and holding the record as longest-serving State Attorney General/Treasurer in the nation only to lose my last race would seriously hurt my ego.

[JMT]

Cindy Axne not running for Governor, will instead run for re-election to Congress:

https://twitter.com/axne4congress/status/1459215411589828611?s=21

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1468630238590644237?s=21

[GregTheGreat657]

Yeah, nothing surprising about Iowa giving good numbers for Republicans. I have no idea why some still think the state is winnable for Democrats. Roy Moore would win Iowa by mid-high single digits.

Moore lost Alabama, which is 15 points more Republican than Iowa