2012-2020 State Swing Map
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Author Topic: 2012-2020 State Swing Map  (Read 959 times)
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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« on: November 11, 2020, 01:06:14 PM »
This is just a state map for now, since there's still a lot of the vote left to count (looking at you New York), but my hope is to eventually make this into a full county map.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2020, 01:13:00 PM »
Interesting. This makes Biden's win look more like a straightforward continuation of 2016 trends.
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Sbane
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« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2020, 02:29:28 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on November 11, 2020, 01:13:00 PM
Interesting. This makes Biden's win look more like a straightforward continuation of 2016 trends.

In some ways this was a college educated vs non-college educated election with less racial polarization.
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Catalyst138
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« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2020, 02:54:26 PM »
The flattest states seem to be Minnesota and North Carolina (D+7 and R+1 respectively). And probably a few safe states as well.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2020, 03:10:47 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on November 11, 2020, 01:13:00 PM
Interesting. This makes Biden's win look more like a straightforward continuation of 2016 trends.

The depressing thing about 2020 is that what seemed to be anomalies - like rural Iowans rejecting Democrats in 2012 and 2016 - are now trends. If you had any hope (as I had) that declining religiosity in northern states would halt the march of Republican culture in the rural Upper Midwest and Mountain West, that hope has now been put to rest. Rural white voters now see the Democrats as hostile towards white people, and they will put up with even a Donald Trump if it means keeping Democrats from controlling the national agenda.

If you fell asleep after 2008 and just woke up, you would be stupefied at this turnaround.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2020, 03:13:21 PM »
This is probably more illuminating than comparing 2016/2020.

Can't wait for the county map!
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ottermax
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« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2020, 02:11:52 AM »
This really shows how dire the situation is for Democrats in the Senate. Really the only potential opportunities appear to be in AZ (success) -> GA (tbd) -> NC (failed) -> TX (failed) -> WHERE?
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𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆
Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2020, 06:34:39 AM »
Westernification of the Democratic Party continues!

Also the famous New England class #analysis (CT/MA/NH = posho; VT/RI/ME = plebs) is sadly showing on the map. I hate trends.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2020, 08:53:03 AM »
The Democrats would be dumb to not do any inroads with Mormons. Seeing that Utah swing.
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Catalyst138
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« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2020, 11:35:23 AM »
Quote from: Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion on November 12, 2020, 06:34:39 AM
Westernification of the Democratic Party continues!

Also the famous New England class #analysis (CT/MA/NH = posho; VT/RI/ME = plebs) is sadly showing on the map. I hate trends.

Vermont and Rhode Island are not becoming competitive any time soon. Those are very weak R trends and both states trended D from 2016.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2020, 11:46:10 AM »
Quote from: BaldEagle1991 on November 12, 2020, 08:53:03 AM
The Democrats would be dumb to not do any inroads with Mormons. Seeing that Utah swing.

That's more a reaction of going from Romney to Trump
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2020, 12:44:39 PM »
Here's the 2008-2020 swing map:



And trend map:
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