Which state is most likely to vote Republican in 2024?

[Figueira]

All of these states would be a flip from 2020 (assuming current leads hold) and winning at least some is probably necessary for Republicans to win.

[Frenchrepublican]

WI by far (especially if republicans can recover a bit in WOW counties).

[pppolitics]

Georgia is trending D the fastest, follow by AZ.

MI is trending D, but not as fast.

Then there are PA and WI, which is barely trending D.

It's a toss-up between PA and WI.

If I have to pick one, I would say WI.  It has very slightly slower D trend and very slightly stalling % margin of victory.

[MT Treasurer]

1. WI
2. PA
3. MI
4. AZ
5. NV
6. GA

I was most unsure about MI/AZ - could see either state flipping before the other.

[Frenchrepublican]

Georgia is trending D the fastest, follow by AZ.

MI is trending D, but not as fast.

Then there are PA and WI, which is barely trending D.

It's a toss-up between PA and WI.

If I have to pick one, I would say WI.  It has very slightly slower D trend and very slightly stalling % margin of victory.

What ??

[JGibson]

Wisconsin.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Georgia, there isn't any Senate race. No, Baldwin, Sinema and Jacky Rosen or Debbie Stabenow or Bob Casey Jr or Tim Kaine are losing their races in 2024

All the states except GA will stay D, Baldwin is vulnerable but not Doug Jones, Manchin and Tester whom are vulnerable to Rep Rosendale are Doug Jones

[pppolitics]

Georgia is trending D the fastest, follow by AZ.

MI is trending D, but not as fast.

Then there are PA and WI, which is barely trending D.

It's a toss-up between PA and WI.

If I have to pick one, I would say WI.  It has very slightly slower D trend and very slightly stalling % margin of victory.

What ??

I am using the trend map from the home page.

[ElectionsGuy]

WI by far (especially if republicans can recover a bit in WOW counties).

I think this election proved that ain't happening anytime soon. Trump did even worse than his 2016 showing in WOW, only winning Waukesha by 20 (Romney +34) and Ozaukee by 12 (Romney +30). The Dem primary foreshadowed this happening too, Dems improved their raw vote share from '16 primaries the most in the WOW counties and Dane.

[Frenchrepublican]

Georgia is trending D the fastest, follow by AZ.

MI is trending D, but not as fast.

Then there are PA and WI, which is barely trending D.

It's a toss-up between PA and WI.

If I have to pick one, I would say WI.  It has very slightly slower D trend and very slightly stalling % margin of victory.

What ??

I am using the trend map from the home page.

Biden won WI by 0.6 points, Clinton lost it by 0.8, so WI swung 1.4 point to the left, at the same time Biden will win the PV by 4.5 to 5 points, Clinton won it by only 2.2, thus I'm not sure how WI is trending left.

And if you look at trends over the 2012/2020 period it's even harder to argue that WI is trending D.

[Frenchrepublican]

WI by far (especially if republicans can recover a bit in WOW counties).

I think this election proved that ain't happening anytime soon. Trump did even worse than his 2016 showing in WOW, only winning Waukesha by 20 (Romney +34) and Ozaukee by 12 (Romney +30). The Dem primary foreshadowed this happening too, Dems improved their raw vote share from '16 primaries the most in the WOW counties and Dane.

Well, you could be right and I would not be surprised if WOW counties continue to swing left (to be honest at the beginning of the year I thought that Trump would improve upon his 2016 numbers in this area), but at the same time congressional democrats have underperformed Biden a lot in the region so maybe it's possible that a non Trump republican will recover a bit in WOW counties.

But once again I have been burned before so I'm not really making any solid predictions here.

[ElectionsGuy]

WI by far (especially if republicans can recover a bit in WOW counties).

I think this election proved that ain't happening anytime soon. Trump did even worse than his 2016 showing in WOW, only winning Waukesha by 20 (Romney +34) and Ozaukee by 12 (Romney +30). The Dem primary foreshadowed this happening too, Dems improved their raw vote share from '16 primaries the most in the WOW counties and Dane.

Well, you could be right and I would not be surprised if WOW counties continue to swing left (to be honest at the beginning of the year I thought that Trump would improve upon his 2016 numbers in this area), but at the same time congressional democrats have underperformed Biden a lot in the region so maybe it's possible that a non Trump republican will recover a bit in WOW counties.

But once again I have been burned before so I'm not really making any solid predictions here.

Congressional and statewide Republicans do better in WOW than Trump, that much is clear. However I think the trend is beyond Trump and we will see Republicans continue to do worse in the future, even if there's a lag effect down-ballot which is common in many places (For instance, Walker did better than Trump in '18, but the trend from his '14, '12, and '10 performances was away from him still). I was thinking Trump was going to get some Johnson voters back, even if he ended up doing slightly worse. Even if that was the case, there were still some more Trump/Biden voters than expected.

[iceman]

I’m bumping this thread to see how the takes here fared well post-election.

It’s hilarious that people seem to think that Wisconsin was most likely to flip when in fact it was the least red among the 7 battlegrounds this year.

Goes without saying that opinions this far out in 2028 is certainly not relevant