Why did Obama win Indiana in '08?
King of Kensington:
The main explanation I've heard is "Chicago media market" but that's a pretty small portion of the state, no?
Real Texan Politics:
Could be a mix of northwest Indiana Chicago suburbs like Gary, as well as major college towns like Notre Dame and Lafayette, and maybe he did well in the Indianapolis suburbs too?
Agonized-Statism:
Enormous margins in the Democratic centers of the state and a blue collar revolt after the Lehman collapse. This was before the map fully transformed to rural GOP blowouts, and McCain wasn't playing a social conservative character like Bush. McCain just represented the worst of the status quo to Indianans- all the war and the economic hardship without the red meat. Combine that with the fact that Obama already had a strong presence in the area and it was the perfect storm.
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers:
Evan Bayh was still Senator from IN and he had WC appeal. Now, IN is a red state, the only D that could win is John Gregg but he retired after he lost in 2016
Del Tachi:
Quote from: Tucker Carlson 2024 on November 10, 2020, 08:06:35 PM
Could be a mix of northwest Indiana Chicago suburbs like Gary, as well as major college towns like Notre Dame and Lafayette, and maybe he did well in the Indianapolis suburbs too?
Obama's 2008 squeaker was not powered by suburbs. Obama ran well, well behind Biden in suburban Hamilton County (61-38 McCain, 52-47 Trump.) Biden and Obama will get almost the exact same margin out of Marion County too (~63%).
Sure, Obama ran up his margins in NW Indiana (Lake, Porter, LaPorte, St. Joseph) but the real key was in strength in the rural parts of the states. For example, Benton County went from 70-28 Bush in 2004 to 57-41 McCain in 2008. In 2020, it was 73-24 Trump. Benton County is not in the Chicago media market either, FWIW
Obama's 2008 margins across the rural Midwest were insane (by contemporary standards, someone like Bayh, Edwards or even Hillary Clinton in 2008 might have done better.) Obama won ~880 counties in 2008, and while this was actually a record-low for a winning candidate at the time, Democrats have managed to beat their own record again in 2012 and 2020.
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