How did 2020 reshape the electoral map?

[ProgressiveModerate]

In 2016, the rust belt was revealed to be more competative than initially thought, while states like GA, TX, and AZ were revealed to have potential to be competative down the road

2012 barely redefined the electoral map frankly

In 2008, it was revealed Democrats could win in all these places like VA, NC, CO, and NV, which were previously thought as pipe dreams


I personally feel like after seeing the 2020 results, GA is definately going to be a highly competative state, and will likely start becoming more blue the next few cycles. I also think 2020 revealed MN isn't going to be swinging hard right anytime soon barring some massive re-alignment, Minneapolis grounds the state for now. VA and CO are both officially safe states, and NM may have been bumped down to likely. I also think 2020 showed that Democrats don't appear to have much of a future in OH and IA. I would also say that NE-2 seems to be pretty reliably D after 2020, but we don't quite know what the GOP will do to the district

2016 left us off with a map that looked something like this in a normal cycle:



And I feel like 2020 leaves us with a map that looks like this in a normal cycle:

[Joe Boden]

FL at least lean r in a normal cycle

[ProgressiveModerate]

FL at least lean r in a normal cycle

I’m not sure sure about that yet. FL may have just been a Trump thing like the Midwest was an Obama thing. 2024 should offer a clear picture of whether FL really is gone for Ds

[forza nocta]

It showed us that Florida will forever be titanium-Lean R.

[Non Swing Voter]

well obviously the biggest takeaways are that Arizona and Georgia are the New Democratic frontline targets.  These are states that have been trending Dem for years and could become part of a new blue wall.  I don't think it's safe to say that any other Republican can play as well as Trump did in MI and PA and he still lost.  I think the new battleground is MI/PA/MN/AZ/GA/NC.  OH/IA are gone from the battleground.  FL/TX are probably second tier unless there's further evidence of Texas trending. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

well obviously the biggest takeaways are that Arizona and Georgia are the New Democratic frontline targets.  These are states that have been trending Dem for years and could become part of a new blue wall.  I don't think it's safe to say that any other Republican can play as well as Trump did in MI and PA and he still lost.  I think the new battleground is MI/PA/MN/AZ/GA/NC.  OH/IA are gone from the battleground.  FL/TX are probably second tier unless there's further evidence of Texas trending. 

I agree, though I would replace WI with MN on that list of top battlegrounds.

As for TX, it clearly is still shifting less; Biden saw big swings in areas of the state that weren't the Rio Grande valley, and the Rio Grande valley isn't going to continue trending right at a rate of 30 points per cycle (though it probably continues it's rightwards trend overall).

[Non Swing Voter]

well obviously the biggest takeaways are that Arizona and Georgia are the New Democratic frontline targets.  These are states that have been trending Dem for years and could become part of a new blue wall.  I don't think it's safe to say that any other Republican can play as well as Trump did in MI and PA and he still lost.  I think the new battleground is MI/PA/MN/AZ/GA/NC.  OH/IA are gone from the battleground.  FL/TX are probably second tier unless there's further evidence of Texas trending. 

I agree, though I would replace WI with MN on that list of top battlegrounds.

As for TX, it clearly is still shifting less; Biden saw big swings in areas of the state that weren't the Rio Grande valley, and the Rio Grande valley isn't going to continue trending right at a rate of 30 points per cycle (though it probably continues it's rightwards trend overall).

I guess I am assuming that WI was so razor thin that it will trend enough for the GOP, but maybe that's not a fair assumption. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

well obviously the biggest takeaways are that Arizona and Georgia are the New Democratic frontline targets.  These are states that have been trending Dem for years and could become part of a new blue wall.  I don't think it's safe to say that any other Republican can play as well as Trump did in MI and PA and he still lost.  I think the new battleground is MI/PA/MN/AZ/GA/NC.  OH/IA are gone from the battleground.  FL/TX are probably second tier unless there's further evidence of Texas trending. 

I agree, though I would replace WI with MN on that list of top battlegrounds.

As for TX, it clearly is still shifting less; Biden saw big swings in areas of the state that weren't the Rio Grande valley, and the Rio Grande valley isn't going to continue trending right at a rate of 30 points per cycle (though it probably continues it's rightwards trend overall).

I guess I am assuming that WI was so razor thin that it will trend enough for the GOP, but maybe that's not a fair assumption. 

I almost guarentee you WI vote at least a point or 2 to the right of the nation in 2024, but the PV is prolly Lean D by default at this point so it cancels out.

[Progressive Pessimist]

As far as I see it these are now the only real swing states:

-Arizona.
-Georgia.
-Michigan.
-North Carolina.
-Pennsylvania.
-Wisconsin.

Florida can still be won for Democrats, but a lot has to go right and Texas may be a true swing state at some point within the decade, but not yet. ME-2 also looks tough for Democrats not named Jared Golden to win.

For the Republicans, Nevada is sort of their Florida and Minnesota and New Hampshire are really tough hauls for them to win at the presidential level. NE-2 also seems like it could stay Democratic in the future, at least at the presidential level, but that assumes it lasts as a separate voting entity.

Colorado, ME-At Large, New Mexico, and Virginia are safe D now. And Iowa and Ohio are likely R- though there is still a question as to whether these two are only so Republican because of Trump or if it will last even when he's gone, I personally think it's the latter case though they might not be quite as Republican as in 2016 or 2020.

[MillennialModerate]

I feel like Pennsylvania and especially Michigan are uniquely good fits for Trump.

I think for other canidates they are Likely D states.

I think Arizona and eventually Georgia are trending permanent D. While only losing Ohio.

We might actually have a shot by 2024 in Texas

Thus, the electoral college is trending more fair

[Progressive Pessimist]

I feel like Pennsylvania and especially Michigan are uniquely good fits for Trump.

I think for other canidates they are Likely D states.

I think Arizona and eventually Georgia are trending permanent D. While only losing Ohio.

We might actually have a shot by 2024 in Texas

Thus, the electoral college is trending more fair

Well, we'll also have to see how reapportionment goes. I am going to flip a s*** if Florida gains more than one elector. Meanwhile I will pop champagne if Florida loses any.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like Pennsylvania and especially Michigan are uniquely good fits for Trump.

I think for other canidates they are Likely D states.

I think Arizona and eventually Georgia are trending permanent D. While only losing Ohio.

We might actually have a shot by 2024 in Texas

Thus, the electoral college is trending more fair

Well, we'll also have to see how reapportionment goes. I am going to flip a s*** if Florida gains more than one elector. Meanwhile I will pop champagne if Florida loses any.

FL almost certainly gains 1, and prolly 2. If it doesn't gain 2 this time, it's definately getting it come 2030

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like Pennsylvania and especially Michigan are uniquely good fits for Trump.

I think for other canidates they are Likely D states.

I think Arizona and eventually Georgia are trending permanent D. While only losing Ohio.

We might actually have a shot by 2024 in Texas

Thus, the electoral college is trending more fair

Wow, I've never seen you so optimistic!

[Catalyst138]

Why is everyone saying New Mexico is more competitive than before? Biden won it by double digits, more than Hillary and Obama 2012. It’s now to the right of Colorado but that doesn’t mean it’s anything other than Safe D. If Biden wins the PV by ~4.5 then it’s trend is pretty much flat.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Why is everyone saying New Mexico is more competitive than before? Biden won it by double digits, more than Hillary and Obama 2012. It’s now to the right of Colorado but that doesn’t mean it’s anything other than Safe D. If Biden wins the PV by ~4.5 then it’s trend is pretty much flat.

I don't get it either. Maybe because Colorado voted to its left? But that still doesn't mean that New Mexico is somehow a battleground state though. It's still safe D.