How would Bernie Sanders have done?

[Motorcity]

With all the data we have now, how would Bernie Sanders have done?

Joe Biden was a good nominee. His moderation didn't scare away suburban moms or seniors yet he was able to drive up youth turnout. And his connections to the black community drove up turnout in Detroit, Milwaukee, Philly, and Atlanta. And he was a boring white guy so that limited gains Trump had with the WWC. And he is well liked and respected by the American people. Republicans don't like him, but I never saw the hate that Obama and Hillary got.

His greatest weakness being Hispanics in Texas and Florida.

How would Bernie have done? He would have been weaker in the suburbs, old people, and blacks. But stronger with youth and Hispanics.

[afleitch]

Worse. Much worse. Given we know how effective trying to tie Biden to 'socialism', BLM etc, Sanders would have lost by a few percentage points.

[SN2903]

Trump would have won 2016 + MN, NV, NH and Maine at large. He probably eeks out the popular vote. Trump wins Texas by 10% against Bernie, Florida by 7%, Michigan by 3%, PA by 3%, Wisconsin by 5%, Ohio by 12 %, Iowa by 15%.

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

Trump would have won 2016 + MN, NV, NH and Maine at large. He probably eeks out the popular vote. Trump wins Texas by 10% against Bernie, Florida by 7%, Michigan by 3%, PA by 3%, Wisconsin by 5%, Ohio by 12 %, Iowa by 15%.

Lol

[RFKFan68]

AZ and GA would not have flipped. I don’t think PA or WI would have either.

[Sir Mohamed]

I was always convinced Sanders would have won before the election happened. Looking at the results now, I'm unsure. AZ and GA would not have flipped. Sanders in all likelyhood would have taken WI and MI, so it all comes down to PA. His environmental policies may have hurt him more than the fracking issue did so with Biden. Looking at how close it was, I Sanders could have easily lost the election, or the Electoral College for that matter. I don't see where else he would have expanded the map. OH and IA would not have gone for Sanders. FL would have been much worse, going by 5-7 pts for Trump. Sanders definitely would have won the NPV though.

[Ferguson97]

Georgia and Arizona absolutely do not flip. Probably not NE-02 either.

Wisconsin and Michigan could possibly flip. Pennsylvania is a pure tossup.

Before the election, I thought Sanders would have a somewhat decent chance, but the election was so close that I'm not sure anyone could've done better than Biden.

[jinkinson]

There's no way to really know the answer to this. However, people saying Bernie being an open socialist means he would've done much worse than non-socialist Biden seem to overlook the crucial way that Bernie, before dropping out, would point out that Trump and the GOP support a different form of socialism (socialism for corporations and billionaires but not for everyone else) than he does (single-payer healthcare, higher minimum wage, etc.) I feel like he was always really explicit and enthusiastic about his support for popular progressive policies and highlighting that his form of socialism is totally different from communist China/Cuba/Venezuela/etc. and that would've helped him deal with the bullsh**t "socialism" attacks from the GOP, which aren't even arguments, just trying to cast a spell on your opponents with a "magic word".

[Duke 🇺🇸]

Trump would have won pretty easily. It's pretty clear that embracing "socialism" is not a winning strategy for the Democrats given the GOP was able to pick up seats in this environment.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A similar map. Maybe Bernie loses AZ or wins NC or ME-02. But really pretty similar. He does better in the rust belt, making the states Biden won there more secure but doesn't win any additional states there.

[BoJack Horseman]

He would have gotten absolutely destroyed.

[King of Kensington]

Given how close it was and how little Trump's vote share moved, I am skeptical Sanders would have won an Electoral College victory.

Pennsylvania was damn close, and Biden took it largely due to affluent Philadelphia suburbs and his own Scranton roots. 

[Bootes Void]

no disrespect but he would probably lose NH, Nevada, Arizona, Mich,Pa,Wisc and GA. What saved Biden in these areas was better performance in the suburbs that Im not sure Bernie would have done so

[Pyro]

I believe he wins in higher percentages than Biden in many areas assuming he fires off a GE campaign based on kitchen table issues instead of appealing to moderate platitudes. I'm not sure people realize the potential this election had to be transformative as opposed to simply continuing trends from 2016-18. Consistent messaging about granting healthcare to everyone, a proposal supported by majority of the country, would have done the job. Also:

Assuming his favorability with Hispanic voters holds in the general, and that his campaign centered on popular, progressive issues builds a stronger coalition among workers, Bernie would have done very well in this election. I see his performance in the Midwest surpassing Biden's, as well as in Texas and the Southwest. Florida will go to Trump by a slightly wider margin. It's a shame we'll never know for sure.

[Alben Barkley]

He would have lost but so would quite possibly every other candidate who ran. Except maybe Klobuchar, but I'm not even sure about that.

[GALeftist]

I think he wins about the same map. Maybe a tad worse in NE-02, don't know if that costs him the vote, but definitely substantially better in ME-02. Probably does worse in FL but better in TX, and I suspect he still wins Arizona if his appeal with Hispanics holds. Maybe he narrowly loses in Georgia, but I think Biden's winning PA by enough that he'd still carry the state. If anything, he'd probably do better in MI and WI. Nothing else was on the table.

[Ferguson97]

I refuse to believe there are any Sanders > Trump > Biden voters.

[mileslunn]

Trump would have won.  Not a landslide as landslides don't happen in US anymore regardless of candidate as country too polarized.  But he would have lost all the close states as well as upper middle class suburbs.  I actually don't think Trump's share of the popular vote would have been any higher, I think big difference is third parties would have done much better.  I think Libertarian party would have gotten around 3-5% as most Never Trumper Republicans and Lincoln Project types would have voted Libertarian instead of Democrat.  These types hate Trump with a passion so couldn't vote for him, but Bernie Sanders a bridge too far unlike Biden.

Now if say Kasich vs. Sanders, then yes a GOP landslide.  Kasich could win Virginia and Colorado and would probably get over 40% in California while for states like Connecticut and Oregon, wouldn't win but probably come close losing by only 3-5 points not 15-20 points.

[Fargobison]

Trump would be president, likely a 2016 repeat.

[dspNY]

Trump would have won. Bernie would not have responded effectively to the "defund the police" stuff and his anti-fracking stance costs him PA. Plus he loses more suburban votes than Biden as Trump would effectively run a "he'll tax you out of your homes" campaign

[jinkinson]

If I had to guess I'd say almost every state would have been won by the same party as was the case in the actual 2020 election. It would depend largely on whether the party establishment figures (Obama, Biden, Hillary, etc.) united behind him and campaigned for him as aggressively as they did for Biden. But he would have I think had a more appealing policy platform to many working class voters than Biden and that could help pull some of them away from Trump.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

How well he would've done depends completely on my personal opinion of him. My mind has incredible control over hypothetical situations, it's pretty amazing tbh.

[Motorcity]

I refuse to believe there are any Sanders > Trump > Biden voters.

Maybe not this year but I knows multiple

Sanders>Trump>Hillary voters

[Horsemask]

He would have lost, in my opinion.

Trump would have won 2016 + MN, NV, NH and Maine at large. He probably eeks out the popular vote. Trump wins Texas by 10% against Bernie, Florida by 7%, Michigan by 3%, PA by 3%, Wisconsin by 5%, Ohio by 12 %, Iowa by 15%.

lmao

[25 Abril/Aprile Sempre!]

How well he would've done depends completely on my personal opinion of him. My mind has incredible control over hypothetical situations, it's pretty amazing tbh.

Has this ever not been the case with this sort of hypotheticals here on Atlas?