Freshman Dems who did better than 2018?

[wbrocks67]

Is there a running list of Dem congressmen/women who did better than 2018 in terms of margins?

Given that many didn't, figured this would be an interesting list. Especially since many freshman Dems even in bluer areas still underperformed their 2018 margins.

Off the top of my head, the ones I can think of are:

Luria (strong over)
McBath (strong over)
Kim (strong over)

Wexton (slightly over)
Spanberger (tied)

Any others?

[VAR]

Jared Golden, Jason Crow, Ann Kirkpatrick, Katie Porter

[Roll Roons]

Crow stands out for sure. Really underscores how hard Colorado swung left this year.

[VAR]

Crow stands out for sure. Really underscores how hard Colorado swung left this year.

And Luria, Spanberger, and Wexton represent districts in Virginia. This is frankly horrifying.

[Calthrina950]

Crow stands out for sure. Really underscores how hard Colorado swung left this year.

With the exception of Boebert, every congressional victor in Colorado won by double digits this year. It also helps to demonstrate how intensely divided and polarized the state is, and the fact that it is no longer competitive at the federal level.

[It’s so Joever]

Crow stands out for sure. Really underscores how hard Colorado swung left this year.

Tbf Crow is well liked here. I saw nearly as many Crow signs as Biden signs (and few Hick signs lol)
He has a bright political future if he wants it.

[Gracile]

Sean Casten is coming close to his 2018 margin (he now leads 52.56%-45.69% or 6.87%). Given the overall Democratic trend of late/VBM Illinois ballots, he has a good chance of surpassing his 2018 margin of victory (7.15%) when all the votes are counted.

[n1240]

Delgado is having a very dominating performance. He will probably win by 13 points in the end and outrun Biden 8-9 points.

[BudgieForce]

It might get closer, but it looks like Andy Kim is running ahead of his 2018 margin by a good amount in NJ-3.

[LimoLiberal]

Luria had a very impressive performance in the Tidewater, although Biden did about the same. I think the military vote swung hard left, Trump was never a very natural fit for Virginia Beach anyways.

[Roll Roons]

It might get closer, but it looks like Andy Kim is running ahead of his 2018 margin by a good amount in NJ-3.

Yeah, he's definitely another one. Especially since Gottheimer, Sherrill and Malinowski are all doing worse than they did in 2018. Though I normally support NJ Republicans, I will say that Andy is a really nice guy.

[GALeftist]

It might get closer, but it looks like Andy Kim is running ahead of his 2018 margin by a good amount in NJ-3.

#candidatequality, another win for the CPC

(I recognize that this is probably mostly trendz but I still really like Andy Kim)

[Frenchrepublican]

You have the 2018 / 2020 swing for every congressional district here : https://cookpolitical.com/2020-house-vote-tracker

[Pielover]

It looks like Sharice Davids will do slightly better

[Gracile]

The results are not fully in yet, but tentatively it looks like the following Democratic freshmen are outrunning their 2018 margins (not counting candidates in uncontested contests in 2018/2020)-

Ann Kirkpatrick
Greg Stanton
Josh Harder
Katie Porter
Jason Crow
Lucy McBath
Sean Casten
Sharice Davids
Jared Golden
Andy Kim
Antonio Delgado
Joe Morelle
Elaine Luria
Jennifer Wexton

I might update this thread with the final improvement percentages when all the votes are in.

[Matty]

katie porter faced a very strong challenger this time. greg raths of mission viejo. very popular in that town.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The results are not fully in yet, but tentatively it looks like the following Democratic freshmen are outrunning their 2018 margins (not counting candidates in uncontested contests in 2018/2020)-

Ann Kirkpatrick
Greg Stanton
Josh Harder
Katie Porter
Jason Crow
Lucy McBath
Sean Casten
Sharice Davids
Jared Golden
Andy Kim
Antonio Delgado
Joe Morelle
Elaine Luria
Jennifer Wexton

I might update this thread with the final improvement percentages when all the votes are in.

Golden HAS to run for senate in 2024

[Pericles]

You have the 2018 / 2020 swing for every congressional district here : https://cookpolitical.com/2020-house-vote-tracker

IN-05 really sticks out on that map. Also GA lol.

[vileplume]

It might get closer, but it looks like Andy Kim is running ahead of his 2018 margin by a good amount in NJ-3.

#candidatequality, another win for the CPC

(I recognize that this is probably mostly trendz but I still really like Andy Kim)

It's not trends^TM as NJ-3 is a much more Trump friendly district than NJ-5, NJ-7 and NJ-11 and it isn't trending Dem at the presidential level in the same way those appear to be. In it's current form NJ-3 is the type of seat the GOP *should* on paper win back relatively easily in a Biden midterm, so it's a good sign for Kim that he's winning by as much as he is. Alternatively if you're a pessimist you could interpret the New Jersey results as a bad omen for the midterms due to Malinowski, Sherrill and Gottheimer not winning by more despite the strong pro-Biden trend in their districts...

Honestly it may have been better long-term for the Democrats for Malinowski to have lost as then the it's likely the commission (who love incumbent protection maps) would have made NJ-7 into a Republican vote sink and given Sherrill and Gottheimer safe seats. You can't give all three safe seats without gerrymandering Maryland/Illinois-style and a commission is never going to draw a map like those especially as they'll definitely keep NJ-8 majority Hispanic and NJ-10 majority black.

[Mr.Phips]

It might get closer, but it looks like Andy Kim is running ahead of his 2018 margin by a good amount in NJ-3.

#candidatequality, another win for the CPC

(I recognize that this is probably mostly trendz but I still really like Andy Kim)

It's not trends^TM as NJ-3 is a much more Trump friendly district than NJ-5, NJ-7 and NJ-11 and it isn't trending Dem at the presidential level in the same way those appear to be. In it's current form NJ-3 is the type of seat the GOP *should* on paper win back relatively easily in a Biden midterm, so it's a good sign for Kim that he's winning by as much as he is. Alternatively if you're a pessimist you could interpret the New Jersey results as a bad omen for the midterms due to Malinowski, Sherrill and Gottheimer not winning by more despite the strong pro-Biden trend in their districts...

Honestly it may have been better long-term for the Democrats for Malinowski to have lost as then the it's likely the commission (who love incumbent protection maps) would have made NJ-7 into a Republican vote sink and given Sherrill and Gottheimer safe seats. You can't give all three safe seats without gerrymandering Maryland/Illinois-style and a commission is never going to draw a map like those especially as they'll definitely keep NJ-8 majority Hispanic and NJ-10 majority black.

Dems likely agree to make NJ-07 safe Republican in exchange for shoeing up Sherrill and Gottheimer.  Malinowski’s best bet would be to run against Sherrill in the primary.

[Hope For A New Era]

It looks like Sharice Davids will do slightly better

#trends

[Xing]

Harder's margin was quite something, especially since it doesn't seem to have changed much in terms of the presidential margin from 2016. Did Trump actually improve there?

[VAR]

Harder's margin was quite something, especially since it doesn't seem to have changed much in terms of the presidential margin from 2016. Did Trump actually improve there?

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/05/21/california-republican-party-pulls-howze-endorsement-due-to-disgraceful-social-media-posts-1285447

[lfromnj]

Harder's margin was quite something, especially since it doesn't seem to have changed much in terms of the presidential margin from 2016. Did Trump actually improve there?

Both counties there swung R by a very small amount so I assume Trump improved there, however Harder's opponent was an absolute triaged nutjob.

[Tekken_Guy]

It might get closer, but it looks like Andy Kim is running ahead of his 2018 margin by a good amount in NJ-3.

#candidatequality, another win for the CPC

(I recognize that this is probably mostly trendz but I still really like Andy Kim)

It's not trends^TM as NJ-3 is a much more Trump friendly district than NJ-5, NJ-7 and NJ-11 and it isn't trending Dem at the presidential level in the same way those appear to be. In it's current form NJ-3 is the type of seat the GOP *should* on paper win back relatively easily in a Biden midterm, so it's a good sign for Kim that he's winning by as much as he is. Alternatively if you're a pessimist you could interpret the New Jersey results as a bad omen for the midterms due to Malinowski, Sherrill and Gottheimer not winning by more despite the strong pro-Biden trend in their districts...

Honestly it may have been better long-term for the Democrats for Malinowski to have lost as then the it's likely the commission (who love incumbent protection maps) would have made NJ-7 into a Republican vote sink and given Sherrill and Gottheimer safe seats. You can't give all three safe seats without gerrymandering Maryland/Illinois-style and a commission is never going to draw a map like those especially as they'll definitely keep NJ-8 majority Hispanic and NJ-10 majority black.

Dems likely agree to make NJ-07 safe Republican in exchange for shoeing up Sherrill and Gottheimer.  Malinowski’s best bet would be to run against Sherrill in the primary.

Or take over for 77-year old Coleman.