Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration (user search)
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  Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration (search mode)
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Author Topic: Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration  (Read 335473 times)
Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« on: November 14, 2020, 06:52:38 PM »


Could be interesting if democrats nominate this dude.



Stupid is as stupid does
Why I’m stupid ? Politically extreme / very ideological candidates - Jealous / Kobach / Gillum - don’t have a particularly strong electoral record in gubernatorial races.

He's a memelord one step above Joshua Collins or Aaron Coleman, and he's going to get 10-15% in the primary max if he runs.

If he gets the nomination somehow, yeah, he loses. But he's not getting the nomination.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #1 on: November 15, 2020, 10:08:42 AM »

Lmao, Carter won't be nominated, and if so, he would be a disaster.

If T-Mac stays out, I hope Jennifer Carrol Foy gets the nomination. She's the most intersting candidate. If T-Mac jumps in, I'd like her to run for the second spot with T-Macs help in exchange for his support four years later.



That's probably the best strategy, and yeah - it's really time for Virginia to move to two-term Governors. Otherwise there's just going to be this constant cycle of musical chairs Cleveland-ing.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #2 on: December 05, 2020, 01:52:42 PM »



I've said it before and I'll say it again. Republicans are way more likely to flip New Jersey next year.

Yep, although they will flip neither.

Virginia is also likely to have the stronger Dem nominee.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2020, 02:13:52 PM »



I've said it before and I'll say it again. Republicans are way more likely to flip New Jersey next year.

Yep, although they will flip neither.

Virginia is also likely to have the stronger Dem nominee.

How popular is Phil Murphy?

Moderate. He has many of the same problems as Cuomo, in that he maintained an extremely strict approach to Covid well beyond when the state was in a crisis situation, horribly botched the nursing home situation, and has been caught in a few hypocrisies along the way. He'd be vulnerable if the Republicans had a candidate who could unite the opposition, peel off some centrist Dems, and avoid coming off like a wingnut...but they don't.

I'd say he has roughly a 70% chance of re-election, while McAuliffe would have a roughly 95% chance at winning his second term.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #4 on: December 05, 2020, 02:46:13 PM »



I've said it before and I'll say it again. Republicans are way more likely to flip New Jersey next year.

Yep, although they will flip neither.

Virginia is also likely to have the stronger Dem nominee.

How popular is Phil Murphy?

Moderate. He has many of the same problems as Cuomo, in that he maintained an extremely strict approach to Covid well beyond when the state was in a crisis situation, horribly botched the nursing home situation, and has been caught in a few hypocrisies along the way. He'd be vulnerable if the Republicans had a candidate who could unite the opposition, peel off some centrist Dems, and avoid coming off like a wingnut...but they don't.

I'd say he has roughly a 70% chance of re-election, while McAuliffe would have a roughly 95% chance at winning his second term.

Sounds right

Interesting in terms of the comparison to Cuomo. I'm pretty sure I'd prefer Murphy to Cuomo though.

Murphy is definitely the less belligerent, more compassionate of the two, although he also doesn't have to deal with De Blasio mucking things up.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #5 on: December 05, 2020, 03:23:28 PM »


I've said it before and I'll say it again. Republicans are way more likely to flip New Jersey next year.

Yep, although they will flip neither.

Virginia is also likely to have the stronger Dem nominee.

How popular is Phil Murphy?

Moderate. He has many of the same problems as Cuomo, in that he maintained an extremely strict approach to Covid well beyond when the state was in a crisis situation, horribly botched the nursing home situation, and has been caught in a few hypocrisies along the way. He'd be vulnerable if the Republicans had a candidate who could unite the opposition, peel off some centrist Dems, and avoid coming off like a wingnut...but they don't.

I'd say he has roughly a 70% chance of re-election, while McAuliffe would have a roughly 95% chance at winning his second term.
Do you view Hughin as a credible threat?

Not Ray Goldfield, but if Hugin could not beat a comically unpopular Senator, while flooding the airwaves, he isn't beating a popular Governor, either.

Yeah, he's one of those perennial names that seems to be in the mix for every race lately. He's not a terrible candidate, but not a great one either. He falls into that same "30%" field that I put most likely opponents in.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #6 on: December 05, 2020, 05:30:30 PM »


I've said it before and I'll say it again. Republicans are way more likely to flip New Jersey next year.

Yep, although they will flip neither.

Virginia is also likely to have the stronger Dem nominee.

How popular is Phil Murphy?

Moderate. He has many of the same problems as Cuomo, in that he maintained an extremely strict approach to Covid well beyond when the state was in a crisis situation, horribly botched the nursing home situation, and has been caught in a few hypocrisies along the way. He'd be vulnerable if the Republicans had a candidate who could unite the opposition, peel off some centrist Dems, and avoid coming off like a wingnut...but they don't.

I'd say he has roughly a 70% chance of re-election, while McAuliffe would have a roughly 95% chance at winning his second term.
Do you view Hughin as a credible threat?

Not Ray Goldfield, but if Hugin could not beat a comically unpopular Senator, while flooding the airwaves, he isn't beating a popular Governor, either.

Yeah, he's one of those perennial names that seems to be in the mix for every race lately. He's not a terrible candidate, but not a great one either. He falls into that same "30%" field that I put most likely opponents in.

What do you think about Jack Ciattarelli? He's the only real candidate who's officially in.

Really liked him three years ago, actually voted for him in the GOP primary. He's gone all in on the "Stop the Steal" nonsense and with it his chances went up in smoke.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #7 on: December 06, 2020, 09:08:02 AM »


This race was always Safe D (with any Democrat/Republican).

I would be worried if Lee Carter is chosen as the Democratic nominee...
He'd never win a primary. Its upper middle class suburbanites and African Americans that make up the democratic primary voters in Virginia. Even with the super low turnout because of the off year primary effect he's not going to convince either group

His only hope would be a major vote split with everyone cannibalizing each other, but I don't expect most of McAuliffe's opponents will last too long.

If he did sneak in with a plurality nom, I think he'd lose the general, but that's extremely unlikely.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #8 on: December 09, 2020, 04:50:15 PM »

Carter's departure from HD-50 ironically makes me feel better about the seat. I wish he would stay in the house of delegates though as we need his voice. (I hate anyone who is wealthy).

But yea, HD-50 is relatively competitive for Northern Virginia so if the climate got good for the GOP it could flip especially with a Democrat like Carter.

I have not made a decision in the primary yet between Jennifer Carrol Foy or Terry Mcauliffe.
Hes running for reelection in HD-50 too so if he loses the VA gov dem primary he's still going to run for reelection. Also yall hate on Lee Carter away to much he's charismatic and funny af and has a very good story I don't think he'll win but he's got a better shot than you'd think

Lee Carter is a Rose Twitter grifter, there is absolutely a reason to hate him
Name one reason you hate hin lol. Hes been an effective legislator in the house of delegates and got Maced during the black lives matter protests I like the guy. It seems you don't like him cause he's funny on twitter lol.

He refused to endorse Biden...

Crazy I'm sure that had a huge impact on the election lmfao. How does that mean he would make a poor governor? I'm talking about the character of a man refusing to give an endorsement in a Safe D state and influencing zero votes is a pretty lame reason

It means he isn’t a team player and cares more about his own self-aggrandizement, much like most others on Rose Twitter.

He also spread the false Feinstein insider trading rumors, thus making it easier for the Republicans who were actually guilty to survive the media cycle.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #9 on: February 13, 2021, 05:14:18 PM »

TMac - Safe D

McClellan/Foy - Likely D

Fairfax - Toss-Up

Carter - Lean R
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #10 on: February 13, 2021, 06:51:32 PM »

TMac - Safe D

McClellan/Foy - Likely D

Fairfax - Toss-Up

Carter - Lean R

Yes, because being a socialist will make it worse then being a rapist.

I mean, unironically yes.

Fairfax's defense in a general election will be "It never happened, I was set up, and I've never been charged". As we've seen with many other politicians, the public is willing to look past things like that if they support the politician.

Carter is a terminally online clown who will embarrass himself in a statewide election. He would basically be the left-wing equivalent of Christine O'Donnell's campaign.

But neither of them are getting the nomination and McAuliffe makes it Safe D.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #11 on: March 21, 2021, 09:14:28 AM »

Right now it seems like a guaranteed D hold, but that could still change.

As long as neither of the fringe candidates at the bottom of the poll get the nomination, it seems very hard to see how the Republicans can take this back. McAuliffe can sleepwalk to the win and I don't think McClellan or Foy have any obvious weaknesses.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #12 on: April 22, 2021, 04:14:40 PM »

She's probably going to consolidate much of the non-Carter opposition soon and wind up a solid second, but the fact is that there's simply no reason for McAuliffe to lose and as such no real way to knock down his lead too much. For all practical purposes, everyone else is trying to primary him.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #13 on: May 04, 2021, 04:45:53 PM »

Honestly the most interesting part by far is the the Dem LG primary race because it's the only part that's competitive. McAuliffe and Herring are both heavily favored to win the primary and general elections. So the next month determines whether Rasoul, Ayala, or maybe someone else is the LG. They'll be "next in line," for the governorship in 2025, unless Herring has sufficiently restored his image.

Herring seems likely to beat Jones? Last I heard, the entire establishment was coalescing behind Jones including Northam himself.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #14 on: June 08, 2021, 11:55:52 AM »

Virginia should really just let Governors run for re-election so this kind of mess doesn't happen again. Yes, it sucks when the well-liked former Gov comes in and decides he'd like another term, cutting off every other candidate. There's a reason this doesn't happen in any other state.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #15 on: June 08, 2021, 07:54:17 PM »

Carter was a "there's already enough housing, it's just in the wrong hands" anti-development DemSoc, aka the worst type. Between that and his online personality, he was a nuisance for the Dems and little more.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #16 on: June 08, 2021, 10:32:57 PM »

Welp.

Lee Sharter has gone down. Let's hope that this is a sign of what's to come for Nina Turner in August, as well as for John Fetterman and The Squad in their primaries next year.


I'm not a Fetterman fan and would far prefer Lamb or Kenyatta, but I don't think he fits into this company. He's proven himself a decent public servant, is the only executive in this list, and doesn't keep on doing oopsie antisemitisms.

He's kind of like a more culturally liberal Tester.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2021, 07:30:54 PM »

Almost like it's more effective to run a focused, issues-driven campaign than to relitigate the last election the former President got his ass kicked in. I wonder if the Republicans will take any lessons from this in coming years, but too much of the party still seems to be in thrall to that guy.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #18 on: September 21, 2023, 01:18:46 PM »

I agree that consensual sex work is just another job and not any sort of disqualifying scandal, but that of course doesn't mean that candidates won't be judged by their choice of job just like they would for being a prosecutor, a hedge fund manager, etc.
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