Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Torrain]

I’m sorry, but the local DSA threw the first stone by harassing his wife on Twitter. Lee Carter still remains the best option for Virginia.

The thrice-married, self-declared socialist, with no real legislative experience, and a history of public tantrums is the best candidate?

May I ask, in all honesty - how?

[Torrain]

Wait does Jones actually have a shot???

Finally, a chance to talk about this race!

Back when Herring was still running for Governor, Jones racked up some major endorsements, including half of the Dem caucus in both houses of the VA legislature, as well as Cory Booker (whose campaign he had worked for in 2020).

In comparison, Herring has only a handful of backers.

Herring rejoined the AG race in December, after Jones had become the de-facto AG nominee. Herring seems to think he’ll be able to walk to a third term. But between Jones’ major support (I never expected Northam to break for him in the primary), and Herring’s scandal, I’d say it’s definitely competitive.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/emilyslist/status/1385203194385641474?s=21
Wow! I wasn’t expecting EMILY’s List to endorse. This combined with her fairly strong fundraising could be what Carroll Foy needs to get her name recognition up to be competitive, but McAuliffe is still the obvious favorite.

This feels like significant.

Presumably Carroll Foy's only real shot is to essentially make this a two-way race by boxing out the non-McAuliffe candidates, and pivot to the 'time for change' line.

Hard to see her making it competitive without a significant gaffe/scandal on McAuliffe's part though.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1391538802766843912
Virginia GOP and shooting themselves in the foot. Can't think of two things that go together better.

Yes, I know Democrats would be favored, but Miyares would probably have a better shot at pulling off an upset.

If these results bear out - the FL Dems might finally have company in the bottom tier of state parties. This whole situation seems needlessly damaging for them.

But I guess they're trapped, between the Trumpian bent of the GOP base, and VA’s political climate, which is about as far as you can get from that.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1391542938556145668

[Torrain]

While we wait for the gubernatorial convention results, I'm struck by something rather mundane.

Among the major players in VA politics, all are within 7 years of each other's age - McAuliffe (64), Kaine (63), Warner (66), Northam (61), Herring (59). Obviously that's not unusual, that's pretty much the average age of Congress. But the inner circle of power in VA is all only  about a decade away from retirement.

It'll be interesting to see how VA politics shift once the Old Guard, who emerged onto the political scene in the Bush year, leave. Will it upend the 'socially-liberal, fiscally moderate' consensus in the state, or will the next generation look just like the last.

If Jay Jones or Sam Rasoul win the AG or LG nomination, respectively, it feels like they're basically promised a Senate seat or term as Governor in the long term, barring a Fairfax-esqe scandal. As men in their 30s, they've got a real shot of hanging around, and shaping state politics for years to come.

[Torrain]

State of the race with 40% in:

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1391792185381695489

[Torrain]

Snapshot of the race:

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1402416627338072064

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1402411774402572294?s=20

The fact that it's under 10 is amazing for Jones. He really has a great future

Yeah, I'm pleasantly surprised by how well he ran in the end. Definitely rooting for Jones in the next election cycle. If Herring retires, or Ayala runs for Governor, he should be a shoo-in for AG or LG.

[Torrain]

On DDHQ, it looks like Mark Levine might win the City of Alexandria in the LG race:

Mark Levine 2,880 30.69%
Hala Ayala    2,531 26.97%
Sam Rasoul 2,081 22.17%
Andria McClellan    637 6.79%
Sean Perryman    628    6.69%

Obviously that's not too surprising, given it's his home turf, but it's still interesting that we might end up with four candidates picking up counties/cities on the map. Given that he's officially out of a job in the state legislature, at least he can claim to have won something tonight.

[Torrain]

Lee Carter is supporting Independent candidate Princess Blanding for Governor.

Asshats gonna asshat

Yeah, he's spent the past 24 hours on Twitter yelling about how good he was as a representative, while also complaining that he's a victim of gentrification (which is the first time I've ever heard a ginger white guy claim he's the victim of racial-based economic prejudice)

But, hey, there's a silver lining:
https://twitter.com/carterforva/status/1402775751179620352

[Torrain]

Monmouth poll had high rates of approval for vaccine mandates, mask mandates, masking in schools, etc., so.... not great for Youngkin.

It's fair to say that running in Virginia is not great for Youngkin.  He should take his sideshow down to North Carolina.

To be fair, I’d much rather Youngkin was the GOP gubernatorial candidate in NC than Pat McCrory or Mark Robinson.

[Torrain]

McAuliffle posts a leaked tape of Youngkin asking students not to get the vaccine.
I’m sure this is lacking some context, but it sounds pretty freaking bad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TerryMcAuliffe/status/1438641459796877317

Especially ironic following his comments asking for a pro-vaccine PSA with McAuliffe.