Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1339210624602091520?s=20
Pete Snyder: businessman, active in GOP politics, founded the "Virginia 30 day fund" for loans to small businesses, outspoken on opening back up schools.   Seems he could have a good chance for the nomination if he jumps in.

He was the odds-on favorite for Lt. Governor in 2013, but then the convention delegates heard EW Jackson give a speech about Lighting a Flame for Liberty or some such, and flocked to him instead. He had these little plastic torches or candles.

I voted against him in all 4 rounds because I knew he'd be general election poison, but the nature of these things is that they only attract die-hards and crazy people. Because nobody else wants to spend an entire Saturday in some arena while they try to count votes.

So I'd say Amanda Chase's odds are pretty good with that crowd.

Why do they even keep the convention system? The only time I can see it making sense is for a special election.

Obviously for political reasons. 

[DINGO Joe]

Tuesday was officially the last day the Rs could request a primary via the Dept of Elections.  Instead, they announced a convention May 8th at Liberty University.  Safe D

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1385435777400807426

VAGOP moment

Well, they just lost the Walter Sobchak vote

[DINGO Joe]

has the VA GOP clown car primary happened yet?

It's a state convention, not a primary, and it's scheduled for May 8. 

https://twitter.com/jfradioshow/status/1387098598618406916?s=19

I wonder if this is true.

This reflects the fact that their 'convention' is more of a firehouse primary than a true convention, with multiple dropboxes across the state. Its far less that the several hundred thousand that can be expected for a primary, but still a healthy amount normal for something in between the two types of nomination processes. The big takeaway is that there probably will be more than enough turnout to override the say of various political insiders who are guaranteed to turnout, so the party isn't guaranteed to nominate their favorites.

Also the GOP decided to allow delegates with a legitimate exemption - e.g. Orthodox Jews - to cast their preferences on Friday ahead of the main event.

To participate, potential delegates had to fill out a form with their voter ID number and actually sign the form.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/lot-confusion-virginia-republicans-stumble-over-their-own-voter-id-n1265887

Seems that more than 10% of the 53,000 couldn't manage to do that, but the VA GOP apparently will let them vote anyway.  Very liberal of them.

[DINGO Joe]

I've been getting flooded with anti-Chase mailers from Club for Growth.  Mainly focusing on her being disloyal to the party but apparently she was praised by the League of Conservation Voters or something at some point ?  Anyway, nothing in the mail telling me when or where to vote.  Had to figure that out myself. I didn't realize until today that it's this weekend. My location if I go would be about 20 minutes away.  Am I eligible to vote in it?   I have no idea.

No, you had to fill out a form to the state party and send it in to be eligible.  You've already failed.

[DINGO Joe]

What's the game plan?  Intentional obscurity or incompetence or some combination?

Yes

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/here-s-complicated-way-virginia-republicans-will-pick-their-nominee-n1262031

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/lot-confusion-virginia-republicans-stumble-over-their-own-voter-id-n1265887

[DINGO Joe]

I've been getting flooded with anti-Chase mailers from Club for Growth.  Mainly focusing on her being disloyal to the party but apparently she was praised by the League of Conservation Voters or something at some point ?  Anyway, nothing in the mail telling me when or where to vote.  Had to figure that out myself. I didn't realize until today that it's this weekend. My location if I go would be about 20 minutes away.  Am I eligible to vote in it?   I have no idea.

No, you had to fill out a form to the state party and send it in to be eligible.  You've already failed.

I don't know why, but that made me laugh.

'No, you can't vote in it. You're a failure'

Well, I was mainly being facetious and not trying to be mean, but it's an absurd process and since nobody knows who these voters/delegates are the campaigns are just spamming like crazy apparently.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/DanielBerti12/status/1391164856439611396?s=20

Prince William delegate turnout.

Does turnout in individual counties even matter?  I thought things are weighted in advance with jurisdictions that vote more Republican in past elections more weight.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/DanielBerti12/status/1391164856439611396?s=20

Prince William delegate turnout.

Does turnout in individual counties even matter?  I thought things are weighted in advance with jurisdictions that vote more Republican in past elections more weight.

Yes areas are weighted so turnout matters less. However a energized area likely has something motivating them to cast their votes. No idea how things relate in that regard though.

I like how one vote wasn't counted/accepted because the voter fled.

[DINGO Joe]

Vpap is providing returns as the GOP provides them.  Have no idea what they mean though

[DINGO Joe]

Just curious, since this "convention" isn't run by the state, is there anything stopping someone from participating in the R vote and then turning around and voting in the D primary in June?

[DINGO Joe]

Did the Rs provide raw vote by county?

[DINGO Joe]

One notable difference so far is Russell County which was a Chuck Smith stronghold yesterday in a sea of Miasma counties.  Chase lost badly to Youngkin today

[DINGO Joe]

I hope Chase finishes 3rd because I want to see what her reallocation looks like (I'm hoping more than half didn't make a second choice)

[DINGO Joe]

Results at 35% of weighted votes counted:

Glen Youngkin: 30.89%
Pete Snyder: 25.48%
Amanda Chase: 24.81%
Kirk Cox: 12.95%
Sergio de la Peña: 5.33%
Octavia Johnson: 0.30%
Peter Doran: 0.24%

Cox has fallen off in favor of Youngkin as more smaller countires weighted votes report. We won't know the full picture until everything from round 1 is done, given that Chase appears to be doing better in Hampton Roads and Richmond, Youngkin in Richmond and NOVA, and Snyder in NOVA and Hampton Roads. Cox will gain votes when Chesterfield reports, but so will Chase given their overlapping legislative bases. 

Snyder has been winning outer NOVA and running ahead of Chase and that was a region Smith ran well in, so I think Chase is locked out.

[DINGO Joe]

What did they do, take lunch?

[DINGO Joe]

I like how Snyder and Younkin have managed to tie Loudon, Arlington and Falls Church.

[DINGO Joe]

The group I am in called REOPEN VIRGINIA are very sad and disappointed that Chase is not the nominee but they are all predicting like double digit wins for Youngkin and Miyares and 15 + seat gain in the HOD.

Again, the group you are in is a bunch of idiots.

[DINGO Joe]

So, nobody has polled the race for more than a month now?

[DINGO Joe]

College educated whites will swing heavily Republican in the 2022 Midterms. Do not let Nova's results this November fool you!!!

Fixed to remove the scrolly bit

Unfortunately the squirrelly bit is still there

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/GaryChambersJr/status/1401568095198715911

Game changer.  Lee Carter probably in tears now.

[DINGO Joe]

Sucks that T-Mac is going to run away with this nomination because JCF seems like one of the best gubernatorial candidates anywhere. She could've been a real model for black women to win statewide in 2022 (Abrams, Beasley, etc.) but old white men just can't give up their power.

The election is free and fair one.  Turnout will be very ordinary.  It's up to the candidate to win, not have something "given" to them.