Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[kwabbit]

Jimmie and I made note of the consistent trend of underestimating the out party in these VA gubernatorial elections. That has been an average of 4 points. Polls have been underestimating the Dems in Dem states recently however. Altogether, the safest assumption should be not to expect polling error. VA is not that blue, the national environment is quickly becoming toxic to Dems, and Youngkin is a decent candidate. Those come together to a D+2 race, which is about where the race stands. Hedging expectations based on the 2017 error is faulty; for polling to have shown that race being within 3 points was suspect in the first place. Trump was deeply unpopular and he had lost VA by 5 points the year before. The expectation should've been a D+10 victory. Therefore saying 'well the polls were in the same place last time and Northam won by 9 so McAuliffe will win by 9' is misanalysing the race.

Mmm, I don't know.

Of course no Democrats will think Youngkin is a good candidate since he only says things they disagree with. But he's decidedly not toxic, which is enough to be decent.

He's fake AF which makes him decidedly toxic because he'll say or do anything to get or maintain power.  He'll lie about vaccine positions for instance and encourage supporters to baselessly refuse the vaccine and masks.  He's no different than a President who would lie about weapons of mass destruction rnd start a war if it serves his personal interests.

I don't mean toxic as a person or in power, I mean electorally. Youngkin is not a disastrous candidate electorally speaking.

[wbrocks67]

This seems decidedly toxic. George Soros is now being the scapegaot for... school board members? Really? Youngkin is trash.

https://twitter.com/BruceLeshan/status/1450912585205833735

[Non Swing Voter]

Jimmie and I made note of the consistent trend of underestimating the out party in these VA gubernatorial elections. That has been an average of 4 points. Polls have been underestimating the Dems in Dem states recently however. Altogether, the safest assumption should be not to expect polling error. VA is not that blue, the national environment is quickly becoming toxic to Dems, and Youngkin is a decent candidate. Those come together to a D+2 race, which is about where the race stands. Hedging expectations based on the 2017 error is faulty; for polling to have shown that race being within 3 points was suspect in the first place. Trump was deeply unpopular and he had lost VA by 5 points the year before. The expectation should've been a D+10 victory. Therefore saying 'well the polls were in the same place last time and Northam won by 9 so McAuliffe will win by 9' is misanalysing the race.

Mmm, I don't know.

Of course no Democrats will think Youngkin is a good candidate since he only says things they disagree with. But he's decidedly not toxic, which is enough to be decent.

He's fake AF which makes him decidedly toxic because he'll say or do anything to get or maintain power.  He'll lie about vaccine positions for instance and encourage supporters to baselessly refuse the vaccine and masks.  He's no different than a President who would lie about weapons of mass destruction rnd start a war if it serves his personal interests.

I don't mean toxic as a person or in power, I mean electorally. Youngkin is not a disastrous candidate electorally speaking.

He's pretty overrated here.  He's made a lot of blunders and is clearly not inspiring good turnout thus far.  He comes off as very unlikable and lacks any charisma.  He hasn't taken the correct policy positions for a Republican running in VA.  I think this board will be surprised by the VA margin come election night.

[Chips]

I'll once again point out that I think anything from Youngkin+3 to McAuliffe+12 is quite possible and I wouldn't argue with any prediction inside that range.

[Continential]

I wonder who would swing their vote because of the fact that Rudy Giuliani endorsed Glenn Youngkin.

[Person Man]

This seems decidedly toxic. George Soros is now being the scapegaot for... school board members? Really? Youngkin is trash.

https://twitter.com/BruceLeshan/status/1450912585205833735

You can’t have a gamer tag with “Soros” in Call of Duty for a reason.

[MT Treasurer]

McAuliffe might not win by a lot, but my reaction to Atlas still acting as though Virginia is a swing state in 2021:

If 'Atlas' is treating this race as close/competitive (and it’s obviously not as unified on this as you make it out to be — the vast majority still thinks McAuliffe is favored, with many believing he’s heavily favored and only very few actually predicting a Youngkin win), then that is a sign that they’re considering VA a blue state because this race would already be over and McAuliffe burnt toast in any remotely competitive swing state. Everyone was (rightly) treating IA-GOV 2018 and OH-GOV 2018 as fairly competitive in a massive blue wave environment, but that didn’t mean that those states were still "swing states."

[jamestroll]

I have seen this same pattern many times. Which is why I am convinced youngkin will win unfortunately

[Spectator]

I have seen this same pattern many times. Which is why I am convinced youngkin will win unfortunately

If there’s any discernible “pattern” in Virginia, it will be another boring Democratic win. Republicans haven’t won a statewide race in 12 years when turnout was 40% of what it was in 2020.

[Xing]

McAuliffe might not win by a lot, but my reaction to Atlas still acting as though Virginia is a swing state in 2021:

If 'Atlas' is treating this race as close/competitive (and it’s obviously not as unified on this as you make it out to be — the vast majority still thinks McAuliffe is favored, with many believing he’s heavily favored and only very few actually predicting a Youngkin win), then that is a sign that they’re considering VA a blue state because this race would already be over and McAuliffe burnt toast in any remotely competitive swing state. Everyone was (rightly) treating IA-GOV 2018 and OH-GOV 2018 as fairly competitive in a massive blue wave environment, but that didn’t mean that those states were still "swing states."

As you’ve pointed out before, close and competitive are not the same thing. Yes, the result could be somewhat close, but that doesn’t mean Youngkin has a realistic chance of winning, just like Hubbell  probably didn’t, either. Many things broke his way, and he still came up 3 points short. I could see McAuliffe having an embarrassingly close call if things get really, really bad for Democrats (I.e. the environment is looking worse than it was in 2010), but that doesn’t mean that this race is truly competitive in that Youngkin has a legitimately decent shot at winning. If Virginia had gone to Biden by 5-6% and weren’t trending Democratic, then considering this a very close and competitive race in which McAuliffe has a very narrow advantage would be warranted.

[MT Treasurer]

As you’ve pointed out before, close and competitive are not the same thing. Yes, the result could be somewhat close, but that doesn’t mean Youngkin has a realistic chance of winning, just like Hubbell  probably didn’t, either. Many things broke his way, and he still came up 3 points short. I could see McAuliffe having an embarrassingly close call if things get really, really bad for Democrats (I.e. the environment is looking worse than it was in 2010), but that doesn’t mean that this race is truly competitive in that Youngkin has a legitimately decent shot at winning. If Virginia had gone to Biden by 5-6% and weren’t trending Democratic, then considering this a very close and competitive race in which McAuliffe has a very narrow advantage would be warranted.

That’s a fair point, but I don’t think it was that unreasonable to call IA-GOV 2018/OH-GOV 2018 legitimately competitive (or at least no worse than Lean R), if we’re using those two races as analogies to VA-GOV 2021. I would agree that calling VA competitive would be fairly unreasonable if this was a federal race, but I feel like it’s a little easier to gain those last 3-4 points in a gubernatorial race (although that may be changing, and VA gubernatorial races of course tend to be more nationalized than those in other states). I also think the VA-CA comparisons are misguided for a variety of reasons (Elder's conservative-talk-show-host campaign obviously ended any chance of attracting any crossover appeal and arguably turned him into a worse-than-generic-R candidate [a far cry from Youngkin's systematic, fairly professional campaign], the universal mail-in voting system in CA would always ensure that that election reflected the state's general partisan lean more closely [not applicable to VA], YES/NO is still different from D/R even when associated with two major-party candidates from different parties, there was a clear trend toward NO in the final CA polls even though NO's final margin was 'underestimated' [no such trend in VA; quite the opposite], said pro-D trend also coincided with an increased nationalization of the race [whereas VA has always been somewhat nationalized], etc.).

I’m sticking with my Lean D rating, with McAuliffe winning by a margin slightly under Clinton's 2016 result (+4-4.5), but I really don’t think he has anything other than the state's partisanship going in his favor.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

You should literally put your money, where your mouth is, if you really think, that Youngkin doesn't have "a realistic chance of winning". You can get then a decent amount of money without a realistic chance of losing them.





Personally, I think, 30% (1 of 3) is a bit too much. But anything between 15-25% (from 1 of 6 to 1 of 4) is a reasonable assumption, given the data (polls, fundraising, historical patterns, Biden's approval etc) we have.

With that said, McAuliffe winning by 10+ probably also has 15-25% chance to happen.

[Non Swing Voter]

You should literally put your money, where your mouth is, if you really think, that Youngkin doesn't have "a realistic chance of winning". You can get then a decent amount of money without a realistic chance of losing them.





Personally, I think, 30% (1 of 3) is a bit too much. But anything between 15-25% (from 1 of 6 to 1 of 4) is a reasonable assumption, given the data (polls, fundraising, historical patterns, Biden's approval etc) we have.

With that said, McAuliffe winning by 10+ probably also has 15-25% chance to happen.

I am not into online gambling but betting on T-Mac is basically free money. 

[wbrocks67]

Wonder if WaPo will release a VA poll this time around, they did two in October 2017.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/a-week-before-election-day-new-poll-finds-tightening-race-for-va-governor/2017/10/31/61190912-bd7d-11e7-97d9-bdab5a0ab381_story.html

Some of these quotes really are like deja vu; just change out GIllepsie for Youngkin and things like MS-13 for CRT and boom, same race lmao.

"But they may be effective — appealing to “Build That Wall” Trump voters as well as suburbanites unnerved by brutal slayings attributed to the gang."

"Those numbers suggest that Gillespie, who has struggled at times with Virginia’s purple-state politics in the Trump era, has successfully threaded the needle with his ads"

"In a sign that Democrats fear that Gillespie’s message is breaking through,"

"We have a very competitive race, largely about mobilizing the base” for each candidate, "

"Among registered voters, an identical 71 percent of both Northam and Gillespie supporters say they are certain to vote or have already done so,"

[Person Man]

Wonder if WaPo will release a VA poll this time around, they did two in October 2017.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/a-week-before-election-day-new-poll-finds-tightening-race-for-va-governor/2017/10/31/61190912-bd7d-11e7-97d9-bdab5a0ab381_story.html

Some of these quotes really are like deja vu; just change out GIllepsie for Youngkin and things like MS-13 for CRT and boom, same race lmao.

"But they may be effective — appealing to “Build That Wall” Trump voters as well as suburbanites unnerved by brutal slayings attributed to the gang."

"Those numbers suggest that Gillespie, who has struggled at times with Virginia’s purple-state politics in the Trump era, has successfully threaded the needle with his ads"

"In a sign that Democrats fear that Gillespie’s message is breaking through,"

"We have a very competitive race, largely about mobilizing the base” for each candidate, "

"Among registered voters, an identical 71 percent of both Northam and Gillespie supporters say they are certain to vote or have already done so,"

The difference now is that Virginia is a D+4 states instead of a D+1 state but that instead of a Republican who can’t get anything done, we have a Democrat who can’t get anything done.

[Virginiá]

It used to be said that VA had a preference for voting for governor the opposite of the party that controlled the WH (until 2013), but personally I think that was just a coincidence helped by VA being competitive enough and the "out party" performing better as usual because Americans tend to just mindlessly blame whoever is in charge for their woes.

Still, it doesn't mean Democrats won't pay a penalty this year for a (currently) unpopular Dem president weighing them down. OTOH, the Democratic coalition absorbing so many suburban professional class voters does give it an ideal coalition for off-year/midterm elections. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[jamestroll]

It used to be said that VA had a preference for voting for governor the opposite of the party that controlled the WH (until 2013), but personally I think that was just a coincidence helped by VA being competitive enough and the "out party" performing better as usual because Americans tend to just mindlessly blame whoever is in charge for their woes.

Still, it doesn't mean Democrats won't pay a penalty this year for a (currently) unpopular Dem president weighing them down. OTOH, the Democratic coalition absorbing so many suburban professional class voters does give it an ideal coalition for off-year/midterm elections. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Trust me youngkin will win. Just by a little less than Bob McDonnell in 2009. This was never a blue state

[wbrocks67]

It used to be said that VA had a preference for voting for governor the opposite of the party that controlled the WH (until 2013), but personally I think that was just a coincidence helped by VA being competitive enough and the "out party" performing better as usual because Americans tend to just mindlessly blame whoever is in charge for their woes.

Still, it doesn't mean Democrats won't pay a penalty this year for a (currently) unpopular Dem president weighing them down. OTOH, the Democratic coalition absorbing so many suburban professional class voters does give it an ideal coalition for off-year/midterm elections. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This is what is so interesting and what will be most pertinent. White College grads are the highest turnout mid-term/off year group, so now that that its more of a Democratic leaning group than it has been in the past, how does that change the calculus?

[jamestroll]

It used to be said that VA had a preference for voting for governor the opposite of the party that controlled the WH (until 2013), but personally I think that was just a coincidence helped by VA being competitive enough and the "out party" performing better as usual because Americans tend to just mindlessly blame whoever is in charge for their woes.

Still, it doesn't mean Democrats won't pay a penalty this year for a (currently) unpopular Dem president weighing them down. OTOH, the Democratic coalition absorbing so many suburban professional class voters does give it an ideal coalition for off-year/midterm elections. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This is what is so interesting and what will be most pertinent. White College grads are the highest turnout mid-term/off year group, so now that that its more of a Democratic leaning group than it has been in the past, how does that change the calculus?

If youngkin wins while white college grass turn out higher.. that is very bad for dems. Just think about that..

[Xing]

Wow, what advice I've gotten in the Virginia threads.

-Read Twitter
-Gamble with actual money

Atlas isn't a good role model, children. Stay away.

That’s a fair point, but I don’t think it was that unreasonable to call IA-GOV 2018/OH-GOV 2018 legitimately competitive (or at least no worse than Lean R), if we’re using those two races as analogies to VA-GOV 2021. I would agree that calling VA competitive would be fairly unreasonable if this was a federal race, but I feel like it’s a little easier to gain those last 3-4 points in a gubernatorial race (although that may be changing, and VA gubernatorial races of course tend to be more nationalized than those in other states). I also think the VA-CA comparisons are misguided for a variety of reasons (Elder's conservative-talk-show-host campaign obviously ended any chance of attracting any crossover appeal and arguably turned him into a worse-than-generic-R candidate [a far cry from Youngkin's systematic, fairly professional campaign], the universal mail-in voting system in CA would always ensure that that election reflected the state's general partisan lean more closely [not applicable to VA], YES/NO is still different from D/R even when associated with two major-party candidates from different parties, there was a clear trend toward NO in the final CA polls even though NO's final margin was 'underestimated' [no such trend in VA; quite the opposite], said pro-D trend also coincided with an increased nationalization of the race [whereas VA has always been somewhat nationalized], etc.).

I’m sticking with my Lean D rating, with McAuliffe winning by a margin slightly under Clinton's 2016 result (+4-4.5), but I really don’t think he has anything other than the state's partisanship going in his favor.

I agree that McAuliffe is not a god-tier candidate and is basically relying on Virginia being a blue state (I would also argue that Reynolds/Ernst won because of Iowa becoming a red state more than anything else), but even if the race is nationalized, Virginia's partisan lean is just too much to overcome, and that's arguably more obvious now than it was for Iowa or Ohio in 2018 (though I'd have rated IA-GOV 2022 Likely R at best for Democrats if Trump had won re-election.) As you said, this race is increasingly nationalized, so I think the potential for Youngkin to win a significant number of Biden voters has diminished quite a bit, thus making it hard to imagine that he'll overcome those extra few points, and I'm not even sure that, assuming that the environment is about 6 points worse for Democrats than 2020, Virginia will vote 6 points to the right of the 2020 result. I think a smaller swing is definitely possible, thus why I'm guessing it'll be McAuliffe +6, though a smaller win is obviously possible as well. The recall in California also isn't a good comparison, since there were definitely some Democratic voters who voted to recall him, but would've preferred a different Democratic governor, and thus would've voted Democratic in a D vs. R race.

[jamestroll]

Fairfax will report very late as will the rest of Nova.

But look to Hampton Roads.. if Youngkin is dominating there hard I may be able to call it for him early.

[Spectator]

Fairfax will report very late as will the rest of Nova.

But look to Hampton Roads.. if Youngkin is dominating there hard I may be able to call it for him early.

Youngkin….dominating in…Hampton Roads…

You are the most delusional person in this thread

[jamestroll]

Fairfax will report very late as will the rest of Nova.

But look to Hampton Roads.. if Youngkin is dominating there hard I may be able to call it for him early.

Youngkin….dominating in…Hampton Roads…

You are the most delusional person in this thread

Trumpism is making a come back in a nicer package to suburbans.. just  when I thought trumpism could be defeated.. it will be back and here to stay.

[indietraveler]

Probably sticking with my initial prediction - McAuliffe +5 minimum

[Duke of York]

Fairfax will report very late as will the rest of Nova.

But look to Hampton Roads.. if Youngkin is dominating there hard I may be able to call it for him early.

It wasn’t late in 2017 or 2020.

Young king winning Hampton Roads? You can’t be serious.