Virginia Governor and other elections 2021
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June 22, 2021, 06:25:01 AM
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  Virginia Governor and other elections 2021
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Author Topic: Virginia Governor and other elections 2021  (Read 27851 times)
Wolverine22
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« Reply #900 on: June 09, 2021, 03:19:44 PM »

Great result for T-Mac! Both margin- and turnout-wise.

His acceptance speech was also pretty firy in attacking the Republicans. I think he'll win by a similar margin than Northam did in 2017 and be able to get a lot of good things done now that Democrats control the state legislature, unlike in his first term (in which he already governed well). He'd actually be a great president as well.

I can't wait to watch his speech but I'm thrilled that he prevailed. T-Mac is one of my favorite politicians and the guy who should have been the nominee instead of Hillary in 2016.
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I Have No Brain, Yet I Must Post
SawxDem
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« Reply #901 on: June 09, 2021, 03:39:25 PM »

Also why did Ibraheem Samirah lose his primary?

From what I heard Samirah was not a constructive legislator. It was either his way or the highway, even on progressive issues.

He was one of the defectors on the bill eliminating qualified immunity because it didn't go far enough. I believe he did the same with the clean energy bill and tried to do it with marijuana legalization. Basically his constant sabotage was enough to piss off the VADP to where they refused to back him.

It's not like Shin is a moderate or anything. She just had a more constructive approach.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #902 on: June 09, 2021, 04:53:42 PM »

Great result for T-Mac! Both margin- and turnout-wise.

His acceptance speech was also pretty firy in attacking the Republicans. I think he'll win by a similar margin than Northam did in 2017 and be able to get a lot of good things done now that Democrats control the state legislature, unlike in his first term (in which he already governed well). He'd actually be a great president as well.

I hope he wins by a similar margin that Northam or even better out preforms him and Democrats gain in the HOD.
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LtNOWIS
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« Reply #903 on: June 09, 2021, 09:19:43 PM »

Also why did Ibraheem Samirah lose his primary?

From what I heard Samirah was not a constructive legislator. It was either his way or the highway, even on progressive issues.

He was one of the defectors on the bill eliminating qualified immunity because it didn't go far enough. I believe he did the same with the clean energy bill and tried to do it with marijuana legalization. Basically his constant sabotage was enough to piss off the VADP to where they refused to back him.

It's not like Shin is a moderate or anything. She just had a more constructive approach.
Yeah. Samirah's predecessor in that seat, state senator Jennifer Boysko, endorsed Shin and actively campaigned for her.

Also Samirah had never faced a real primary electorate before. State Senator Wexton was elected to the US House, then state delegate Boysko filled Wexton's senate seat, then Samirah won a "firehouse primary" for the house seat, defeating Kofi Annan and some other people. That's a different crowd than a statewide June primary.
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#Joemala2020
RFKFan68
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« Reply #904 on: June 09, 2021, 09:32:38 PM »

I can't wait to watch his speech but I'm thrilled that he prevailed. T-Mac is one of my favorite politicians and the guy who should have been the nominee instead of Hillary in 2016.
He would have lost too lol but congrats to him! He will win by 9-10.
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LtNOWIS
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« Reply #905 on: June 09, 2021, 10:45:07 PM »

Lee Carter is supporting Independent candidate Princess Blanding for Governor.
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leecannon_
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« Reply #906 on: June 09, 2021, 10:49:59 PM »


Asshats gonna asshat
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Torrain
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« Reply #907 on: June 10, 2021, 05:44:30 AM »


Yeah, he's spent the past 24 hours on Twitter yelling about how good he was as a representative, while also complaining that he's a victim of gentrification (which is the first time I've ever heard a ginger white guy claim he's the victim of racial-based economic prejudice)

But, hey, there's a silver lining:


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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #908 on: June 10, 2021, 10:27:15 AM »

Well, Mr. Ojeda said the same in 2018/19.
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The Exaltation of Inanna
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« Reply #909 on: June 10, 2021, 10:31:34 AM »


Yeah, he's spent the past 24 hours on Twitter yelling about how good he was as a representative, while also complaining that he's a victim of gentrification (which is the first time I've ever heard a ginger white guy claim he's the victim of racial-based economic prejudice)

But, hey, there's a silver lining:




Just as I was getting my hopes up for a Lee Carter/Joshua4Congress presidential ticket! What a shame.
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leecannon_
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« Reply #910 on: June 10, 2021, 10:38:34 AM »

Well, Mr. Ojeda said the same in 2018/19.

Oh god Carter is gonna try and primary Biden
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I'm a John Fetterman (or Malcolm Kenyatta) Democrat
20RP12
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« Reply #911 on: June 10, 2021, 10:40:44 AM »

Well, Mr. Ojeda said the same in 2018/19.

Oh god Carter is gonna try and primary Biden

Oh Christ you're probably right
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #912 on: June 10, 2021, 11:41:05 AM »

Well, Mr. Ojeda said the same in 2018/19.

Oh god Carter is gonna try and primary Biden

LOL he’ll get 3 votes.
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
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« Reply #913 on: June 10, 2021, 11:45:32 AM »

Sucks that T-Mac is going to run away with this nomination because JCF seems like one of the best gubernatorial candidates anywhere. She could've been a real model for black women to win statewide in 2022 (Abrams, Beasley, etc.) but old white men just can't give up their power.

black voters seem to have stuck with McAuliffe about as much as whites. Heavily black precincts in Norfolk went 70%+ for both McAuliffe and Jones.
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"?"
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« Reply #914 on: June 10, 2021, 05:00:16 PM »

At the rate we're going, we're gonna have to splinter off this thread into the Lee Carter megathread
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #915 on: June 10, 2021, 05:13:00 PM »

Won't be surprised if T Mac wins by low double digits
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PSOL
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« Reply #916 on: June 13, 2021, 03:16:02 PM »

Endorsed! Finally, a Libertarian candidate I can support.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #917 on: June 13, 2021, 04:04:57 PM »

What would happen in the state house if it's actually D+1 like the most recent poll showed? 

2019 was D+9.4 and a 55D/45R result on the current map.

2017 was D+9.3 and 51R/49D but with a much more R-leaning map prior to the court case

Biden improved substantially over 2010's Dem numbers in thoe swing suburban seats, but lost ground in some safe Dem seats, so if the 2021 results skew toward Biden, the Dem situation will improve substantially.  I think it would end up being 52R/48D or so?

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jimmie
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« Reply #918 on: June 13, 2021, 05:14:00 PM »

What would happen in the state house if it's actually D+1 like the most recent poll showed? 

2019 was D+9.4 and a 55D/45R result on the current map.

2017 was D+9.3 and 51R/49D but with a much more R-leaning map prior to the court case

Biden improved substantially over 2010's Dem numbers in thoe swing suburban seats, but lost ground in some safe Dem seats, so if the 2021 results skew toward Biden, the Dem situation will improve substantially.  I think it would end up being 52R/48D or so?



I still have the House of Delegates as Tilt D. Seat 51 is quite strong for Democrats after the redraw in Hampton Roads.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #919 on: June 13, 2021, 05:49:07 PM »



D+1 for VA HoD is a bit worrying actually.  Interesting Mcauliffe does the worst of the three.
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CookieDamage
cookiedamage
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« Reply #920 on: June 13, 2021, 06:29:07 PM »

The whole poll should be taken with a big grain of salt. Biden only like +4/5 in favorability in a state he won by like ten points? A poll in Feb had his approval like 57-36. While a lot can change in four months, his approval dropping to like +4 for no reason is not realistic.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #921 on: June 13, 2021, 06:38:43 PM »

For the record I dont think the poll is skewed towards Republicans, I just think it heavily underestimates DEM support.
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PSOL
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« Reply #922 on: June 13, 2021, 07:38:36 PM »

This race is safe D, next.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #923 on: June 13, 2021, 07:44:03 PM »

Polls in Virginia underestimate Democrats lately and the error is usually concentrated in NOVA and Richmond suburbs because you get a lot of waffly UMC moderates who act as if they're undecided and maybe think they are but then vote heavily democratic.  I think it's more pronounced in national elections than state ones (because they are afraid of being taxed) but you should probably add 3 points to each of the Dems in the poll above.  Surprised that T-Mac is underperforming others on the ticket.  Probably because Youngkin is wasting his fortune blanketing the airwaves right now.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #924 on: June 13, 2021, 07:54:36 PM »

The last gubernatorial election heavily underestimated Northam and I won't be surprised if it happens again. I don't really care how polls over- or under-estimated Biden or Senators tho, those are pretty different races.
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