Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration
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  Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration
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Author Topic: Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration  (Read 335482 times)
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #875 on: June 09, 2021, 12:25:00 AM »

Kind of amazing that Ayala won all of the population centers in Virginia including the entire urban crescent and it still wasn't a blowout.  This is a good reminder that margins matter.  Did Biden flip a lot of areas in 2020?  No but he cut Trump's margins a few points here and there in some working class areas and expanded his margins in suburbs.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #876 on: June 09, 2021, 12:35:56 AM »

Lt. Gov. map is pretty interesting.  It really shows that Northern Virginia is now able to completely determine democratic primaries.  Jones easily won the VB area and Richmond was essentially a tie.  But it was still a near blowout because of Northern Virginia.  Herring also seemed to heavily outperform in educated areas.  Basically demographic groups performed exactly how you'd expect and you can see how the state is trending.
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Pyro
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« Reply #877 on: June 09, 2021, 02:04:30 AM »

Disappointing to see McAuliffe sail to victory and the expectantly lackluster performance from Carter.

Thrilled, however, that DSA-endorsee Clark Nadarius unseated a conservative incumbent for the 79th district.
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« Reply #878 on: June 09, 2021, 02:13:31 AM »

Welp.

Lee Sharter has gone down. Let's hope that this is a sign of what's to come for Nina Turner in August, as well as for John Fetterman and The Squad in their primaries next year.

None of the people you are talking about are running a pointless vanity campaign for a higher office at the same time, and don't spend most of their free time engaging in silly Trump-esque feuds with blue checkmarked journalists as well as people who aren't notable for any reason aside from being extremely online on Twitter.
Yeah, this isn’t a failure of “the left”, it’s a failure of Lee Carter. I liked the guy back in 2017-18 but he quickly became insufferable. At least he did some good with insulin but otherwise the guy’s been a douche and I’m glad he’s not going to sully the progressive and DSA name anymore, or at least not as much since he isn’t as important.
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
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« Reply #879 on: June 09, 2021, 03:20:23 AM »

Welp.

Lee Sharter has gone down. Let's hope that this is a sign of what's to come for Nina Turner in August, as well as for John Fetterman and The Squad in their primaries next year.


Silence, Republican!
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #880 on: June 09, 2021, 05:15:45 AM »

Glad to see the early takes by some about low turnout (Dave Wasserman to be specific) were very, very wrong.

Pretty dam impressive for the primary to hit about 500K in the end which is just under 2017 and incredibly less competitive.

Also LOL @ Justin Fairfax's horrific and devastating performance. Satisfying
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #881 on: June 09, 2021, 05:20:31 AM »

Ayala's lead has been narrowing with every vote dump, she'll probably still win, but not by too much

NOt sure what you were seeing... she's up by 14 and her lead was pretty much around that the entire night

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/06/08/us/elections/results-virginia-primary-elections.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc
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TrumpBritt24
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« Reply #882 on: June 09, 2021, 06:36:47 AM »

Wow, delegates only make $17K a year? I make more than Carter and I'm 21 lol.

Unaffordability of the job might be a fair sour grape.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #883 on: June 09, 2021, 07:31:32 AM »

Wow, delegates only make $17K a year? I make more than Carter and I'm 21 lol.

Unaffordability of the job might be a fair sour grape.

Being a state legislator in VA is a de facto part-time position. However they get paid a per-diem for every day the Legislature is in session--I forget the exact amount but it's supposed to be enough for a hotel/meal per day in Richmond.
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« Reply #884 on: June 09, 2021, 08:01:40 AM »


In the beginning of the night she was ahead by about 20-30 points, but I was wrong in thinking it would narrow much more
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« Reply #885 on: June 09, 2021, 08:05:04 AM »

I expressed support for Carter early on in this primary before I did my research on JCF and I think there's a lesson to be learned here about name recognition. McAuliffe and Carter are on the polar opposite ends of how having a familiar name in certain communities can be either really good or really bad. Carter is one of the most well-known delegates in VA and he absolutely tanked in the primary because he spends all of his time complaining and insulting and fostering rage instead of putting in the work to change minds and policy. McAuliffe, on the other hand, is well known amongst real human beings in the real world and no matter what you think about his policy positions, he at least demonstrates a willingness to get things done. Let this be a lesson for future DSA and progressive candidates. AOC and Ayanna Pressley have done a pretty good job striking a balance between coalition building and criticizing Democrats when they're obviously wrong. There's room for growth there, but we now have a poster boy for how not to do it.
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LtNOWIS
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« Reply #886 on: June 09, 2021, 08:59:08 AM »

Disappointing to see McAuliffe sail to victory and the expectantly lackluster performance from Carter.

Thrilled, however, that DSA-endorsee Clark Nadarius unseated a conservative incumbent for the 79th district.
Yeah. I'm a super centrist. My favorite Virginia politician is Abigail Spanberger.

But Nadarius beating Steve Heretick is absolutely a good thing. I probably would've knocked doors for Nadarius myself. Heretick was a shady dude. He worked in the "industry" where they buy out structured settlements.

So like, decades ago a 6 year old kid got horrifically burned in a fire, lost a leg and had extensive skin damage. A defective space heater was at fault. So the family sues and the company has to pay the kid's living expenses for the rest of his life.

But then Heretick's law firm comes along to this now-adult man and says "hey we'll give you cash now in exchange for your settlement, it'll be great." So they do all that and then you have this disabled burn victim saying "hey wait, this lump sum isn't as much as I thought after all your fees, and now I don't have that monthly income and I'm totally screwed."

You can see some long-ass articles on this back going back to 2015, and as recent as 2021.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/social-issues/the-flawed-system-that-allows-companies-to-make-millions-off-the-injured/2015/12/27/cce16434-9212-11e5-a2d6-f57908580b1f_story.html

https://vpm.org/news/articles/22473/virginia-lawmaker-steve-heretick-deposed-in-alleged-fraud-scheme

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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #887 on: June 09, 2021, 09:09:19 AM »

Glad to see the early takes by some about low turnout (Dave Wasserman to be specific) were very, very wrong.

Pretty dam impressive for the primary to hit about 500K in the end which is just under 2017 and incredibly less competitive.

Also LOL @ Justin Fairfax's horrific and devastating performance. Satisfying

Excatly my thoughts. The turnout for sure is very encouraging news for Dems. Btw, McAuliffe almost got the same number of raw votes than Northam in the 2017 primary.

My early prediction would be McAuliffe winning by anything between 6 and 9 pts.

And lol @ Carter, lol @ Fairfax
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vitoNova
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« Reply #888 on: June 09, 2021, 09:15:08 AM »

The Commonwealth is in good hands with Daddy Mac at the helm.   Hopefully he runs for president one day.   We need more Clintonian efficiency at all levels of government. 
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #889 on: June 09, 2021, 09:24:57 AM »

The Commonwealth is in good hands with Daddy Mac at the helm.   Hopefully he runs for president one day.   We need more Clintonian efficiency at all levels of government. 

He'd more govern like Biden I assume. That said, the timeline to become prez seems against him. Even if Biden is not running again, Harris has a shoe in the nomination. And if not her, it'll be someone more progressive. 2028 is too far down the road and McAuliffe is already 64. Anyways, if Trump were the GOP nominee, I'd have more confidence in McAuliffe to win the GE than Harris. And I'm saying this as strong Harris supporter.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #890 on: June 09, 2021, 10:02:49 AM »

I expressed support for Carter early on in this primary before I did my research on JCF and I think there's a lesson to be learned here about name recognition. McAuliffe and Carter are on the polar opposite ends of how having a familiar name in certain communities can be either really good or really bad. Carter is one of the most well-known delegates in VA and he absolutely tanked in the primary because he spends all of his time complaining and insulting and fostering rage instead of putting in the work to change minds and policy. McAuliffe, on the other hand, is well known amongst real human beings in the real world and no matter what you think about his policy positions, he at least demonstrates a willingness to get things done. Let this be a lesson for future DSA and progressive candidates. AOC and Ayanna Pressley have done a pretty good job striking a balance between coalition building and criticizing Democrats when they're obviously wrong. There's room for growth there, but we now have a poster boy for how not to do it.

McAuliffe had so much more name recognition than Lee Carter though. This isn't really a fair comparison.

Politically engaged people/Left wing people know who Carter is, but that's not all that many compared to the whole group of voting Virginia Democrats. McAuliffe was Governor of the whole state.

I'm not disagreeing that the publicity Carter had proved to people he was bad (it did) but this is just not a fair comparison here
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20RP12
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« Reply #891 on: June 09, 2021, 10:08:09 AM »

I expressed support for Carter early on in this primary before I did my research on JCF and I think there's a lesson to be learned here about name recognition. McAuliffe and Carter are on the polar opposite ends of how having a familiar name in certain communities can be either really good or really bad. Carter is one of the most well-known delegates in VA and he absolutely tanked in the primary because he spends all of his time complaining and insulting and fostering rage instead of putting in the work to change minds and policy. McAuliffe, on the other hand, is well known amongst real human beings in the real world and no matter what you think about his policy positions, he at least demonstrates a willingness to get things done. Let this be a lesson for future DSA and progressive candidates. AOC and Ayanna Pressley have done a pretty good job striking a balance between coalition building and criticizing Democrats when they're obviously wrong. There's room for growth there, but we now have a poster boy for how not to do it.

McAuliffe had so much more name recognition than Lee Carter though. This isn't really a fair comparison.

Politically engaged people/Left wing people know who Carter is, but that's not all that many compared to the whole group of voting Virginia Democrats. McAuliffe was Governor of the whole state.

I'm not disagreeing that the publicity Carter had proved to people he was bad (it did) but this is just not a fair comparison here

Oh absolutely, I was comparing T-Mac's name recognition to IRL people to Carter's very online name recognition, which is what prompted me to support Carter in the first place. It goes to show that there are so many more people in real life who know who T-Mac is as opposed to Carter. The margins last night bore that out.
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MRS DONNA SHALALA
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« Reply #892 on: June 09, 2021, 10:40:34 AM »

Wow, delegates only make $17K a year? I make more than Carter and I'm 21 lol.

Unaffordability of the job might be a fair sour grape.

Being a state legislator in VA is a de facto part-time position. However they get paid a per-diem for every day the Legislature is in session--I forget the exact amount but it's supposed to be enough for a hotel/meal per day in Richmond.

I was curious so I looked it up, it's $211/day
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LtNOWIS
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« Reply #893 on: June 09, 2021, 10:47:55 AM »

Wow, delegates only make $17K a year? I make more than Carter and I'm 21 lol.

Unaffordability of the job might be a fair sour grape.
The idea is, it's a part time job. The sessions are only 30 to 60 days per year. But between that, campaigning, party events, constituent services, etc., it probably will take up most of your time. Most 9-5 jobs don't want you gone that long, so you better be like, a law partner, a business owner where someone else runs things, or something like that. Or your spouse has a real job while your profession is "nonprofit operator/activist" or whatever. Carter's official profession is listed as "IT Specialist," but as of 2019, his main day job was driving for Lyft.

It's fair to say that the pay isn't enough to make it logically worthwhile for most people. Even if they're going to they're going to corruptly leverage this into a lobbyist position or judgeship or something, that takes years. This is an issue in many states, where low legislator disincentives regular working people from seeking office. Instead you have independently wealthy people, out of touch retirees, and ideologues. Even moreso than if it paid a living wage.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #894 on: June 09, 2021, 10:50:23 AM »

NYT has the race at 486K with 97% counted. What's remaining? Any actual precincts or just mail in ballots that are received until Friday?
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #895 on: June 09, 2021, 11:21:36 AM »

Terry McAuliffe is definitely the favorite to win this race, though I am not ruling out Glenn Youngkin pulling an upset.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #896 on: June 09, 2021, 11:58:48 AM »

Wow, delegates only make $17K a year? I make more than Carter and I'm 21 lol.

Unaffordability of the job might be a fair sour grape.
The idea is, it's a part time job. The sessions are only 30 to 60 days per year. But between that, campaigning, party events, constituent services, etc., it probably will take up most of your time. Most 9-5 jobs don't want you gone that long, so you better be like, a law partner, a business owner where someone else runs things, or something like that. Or your spouse has a real job while your profession is "nonprofit operator/activist" or whatever. Carter's official profession is listed as "IT Specialist," but as of 2019, his main day job was driving for Lyft.

It's fair to say that the pay isn't enough to make it logically worthwhile for most people. Even if they're going to they're going to corruptly leverage this into a lobbyist position or judgeship or something, that takes years. This is an issue in many states, where low legislator disincentives regular working people from seeking office. Instead you have independently wealthy people, out of touch retirees, and ideologues. Even moreso than if it paid a living wage.

Yeah, that's the biggest reason in favor of all states have full-time legislatures. Being paid a full-time wage for 2-4 years means that normal people can seek off without needing to be wealthy or have some sort of side hustle.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #897 on: June 09, 2021, 02:17:21 PM »

Also why did Ibraheem Samirah lose his primary?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #898 on: June 09, 2021, 02:19:05 PM »

Great result for T-Mac! Both margin- and turnout-wise.

His acceptance speech was also pretty firy in attacking the Republicans. I think he'll win by a similar margin than Northam did in 2017 and be able to get a lot of good things done now that Democrats control the state legislature, unlike in his first term (in which he already governed well). He'd actually be a great president as well.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #899 on: June 09, 2021, 03:19:44 PM »

Great result for T-Mac! Both margin- and turnout-wise.

His acceptance speech was also pretty firy in attacking the Republicans. I think he'll win by a similar margin than Northam did in 2017 and be able to get a lot of good things done now that Democrats control the state legislature, unlike in his first term (in which he already governed well). He'd actually be a great president as well.

I can't wait to watch his speech but I'm thrilled that he prevailed. T-Mac is one of my favorite politicians and the guy who should have been the nominee instead of Hillary in 2016.
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