Virginia Governor and other elections 2021
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May 07, 2021, 04:38:58 PM

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  Virginia Governor and other elections 2021
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Author Topic: Virginia Governor and other elections 2021  (Read 15779 times)
Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #400 on: May 04, 2021, 05:37:14 AM »

has the VA GOP clown car primary happened yet?

It's a state convention, not a primary, and it's scheduled for May 8. 


But it is a clown car and that's what matters most.

Oh, I think Youngkin or Kirk Cox could defeat Justin Fairfax. At very least Fairfax would be an underwood.

Right now I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 3% or so.

I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 15 if it's Trump in heels as his opponent, if it's one of those fake moderate businessmen then I think he wins by 8-10

More like 5/6. It's not 2017 anymore.
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #401 on: May 04, 2021, 08:21:10 AM »

Has Young Kim weighed in on this race yet
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #402 on: May 04, 2021, 09:01:55 AM »



Youngkin campaign publishes a poll that reflects common sentiments across the state but is basically worthless. A poll of GOP primary voters =/= a poll of highly motivated convention delegates, and it didn't weight for the regional delegate calculation formula utilized to prevent over/underrepresentation in one part of the state or another.

AKA this was probably released to convince some delegates to respect public opinion and vote like trustees for GOP voters.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #403 on: May 04, 2021, 10:32:05 AM »

has the VA GOP clown car primary happened yet?

It's a state convention, not a primary, and it's scheduled for May 8. 


But it is a clown car and that's what matters most.

Oh, I think Youngkin or Kirk Cox could defeat Justin Fairfax. At very least Fairfax would be an underwood.

Right now I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 3% or so.

I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 15 if it's Trump in heels as his opponent, if it's one of those fake moderate businessmen then I think he wins by 8-10

More like 5/6. It's not 2017 anymore.
with the growth in Northern Virginia a ten point win is possible.
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jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #404 on: May 04, 2021, 11:13:34 AM »

has the VA GOP clown car primary happened yet?

It's a state convention, not a primary, and it's scheduled for May 8. 


But it is a clown car and that's what matters most.

Oh, I think Youngkin or Kirk Cox could defeat Justin Fairfax. At very least Fairfax would be an underwood.

Right now I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 3% or so.

I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 15 if it's Trump in heels as his opponent, if it's one of those fake moderate businessmen then I think he wins by 8-10

More like 5/6. It's not 2017 anymore.
with the growth in Northern Virginia a ten point win is possible.

But there has been mounting evidence that college educated whites have been abandoning Democrats. No, NOVA will not become a GOP region. Yes, I understand Northern Virginia is more liberal than many other wealthy suburbs or Obama probably could not have won Virginia in 2012 and Warner wouldn't have been able to get the Fairfax County margin he needed to win in 2014.

But Its impossible that the 70% Democratic vote total in Fairfax County will hold. Naturally it would be more of a 60-40 county.

The diversity of Nova, the anti-intellectualism of the GOP, and the GOP constant attacks on the federal government will prevent any major gop revival in Nova. But we can't assume Fairfax will vote as heavily for McAufflie as it did for Biden.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #405 on: May 04, 2021, 02:35:24 PM »

has the VA GOP clown car primary happened yet?

It's a state convention, not a primary, and it's scheduled for May 8. 


But it is a clown car and that's what matters most.

Oh, I think Youngkin or Kirk Cox could defeat Justin Fairfax. At very least Fairfax would be an underwood.

Right now I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 3% or so.

I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 15 if it's Trump in heels as his opponent, if it's one of those fake moderate businessmen then I think he wins by 8-10

More like 5/6. It's not 2017 anymore.
with the growth in Northern Virginia a ten point win is possible.

It is possible but it doesn't mean it's likely.
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Monstro Doesn't Say Anything Interesting
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« Reply #406 on: May 04, 2021, 02:36:52 PM »

You know it's a boring race when there's long drawn-out arguments over whether the Democrat will win by 5% or 10%
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VAR
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« Reply #407 on: May 04, 2021, 02:38:56 PM »
« Edited: May 04, 2021, 02:43:48 PM by VAR »

You know it's a boring race when there's long drawn-out arguments over whether the Democrat will win by 5% or 10%

Literally everyone on this site already knows this race is Likely / Safe D - you don't really need to make the same point ten times.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #408 on: May 04, 2021, 02:40:13 PM »

You know it's a boring race when there's long drawn-out arguments over whether the Democrat will win by 5% or 10%

Literally everyone on this site already knows this is Likely or Safe Terrence Richard McAuliffe (D).
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Monstro Doesn't Say Anything Interesting
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« Reply #409 on: May 04, 2021, 02:44:53 PM »

You know it's a boring race when there's long drawn-out arguments over whether the Democrat will win by 5% or 10%

Literally everyone on this site already knows this race is Likely / Safe D - you don't really need to make the same point ten times.

You know it's a boring race when folks get upset when you keep mentioning that it's a boring race
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VAR
VARepublican
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« Reply #410 on: May 04, 2021, 02:46:50 PM »

You know it's a boring race when there's long drawn-out arguments over whether the Democrat will win by 5% or 10%

Literally everyone on this site already knows this race is Likely / Safe D - you don't really need to make the same point ten times.

You know it's a boring race when folks get upset when you keep mentioning that it's a boring race

Yes but it gets even more boring when we talk about how boring it is.
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LtNOWIS
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« Reply #411 on: May 04, 2021, 04:27:41 PM »

Honestly the most interesting part by far is the the Dem LG primary race because it's the only part that's competitive. McAuliffe and Herring are both heavily favored to win the primary and general elections. So the next month determines whether Rasoul, Ayala, or maybe someone else is the LG. They'll be "next in line," for the governorship in 2025, unless Herring has sufficiently restored his image.
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Make America Neoliberal Again
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #412 on: May 04, 2021, 04:45:53 PM »

Honestly the most interesting part by far is the the Dem LG primary race because it's the only part that's competitive. McAuliffe and Herring are both heavily favored to win the primary and general elections. So the next month determines whether Rasoul, Ayala, or maybe someone else is the LG. They'll be "next in line," for the governorship in 2025, unless Herring has sufficiently restored his image.

Herring seems likely to beat Jones? Last I heard, the entire establishment was coalescing behind Jones including Northam himself.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #413 on: May 04, 2021, 05:19:20 PM »

has the VA GOP clown car primary happened yet?

It's a state convention, not a primary, and it's scheduled for May 8. 


But it is a clown car and that's what matters most.

Oh, I think Youngkin or Kirk Cox could defeat Justin Fairfax. At very least Fairfax would be an underwood.

Right now I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 3% or so.

I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 15 if it's Trump in heels as his opponent, if it's one of those fake moderate businessmen then I think he wins by 8-10

More like 5/6. It's not 2017 anymore.
True, it won't be 5/6 and it's not 2017 anymore. Virginia has become far bluer!
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VAR
VARepublican
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« Reply #414 on: May 04, 2021, 05:47:13 PM »

True, it won't be 5/6 and it's not 2017 anymore. Virginia has become far bluer!

Not really, no? You could say the same thing for, say, Georgia, but in terms of political preferences, the VA of 2017 isn't all that different from the VA of 2021.
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America Needs Kali
Frodo
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« Reply #415 on: May 04, 2021, 05:55:13 PM »

Honestly the most interesting part by far is the the Dem LG primary race because it's the only part that's competitive. McAuliffe and Herring are both heavily favored to win the primary and general elections. So the next month determines whether Rasoul, Ayala, or maybe someone else is the LG. They'll be "next in line," for the governorship in 2025, unless Herring has sufficiently restored his image.

Herring seems likely to beat Jones? Last I heard, the entire establishment was coalescing behind Jones including Northam himself.

If anything, the establishment of the Democratic Party is split between Herring and Jones, with the House leadership backing Herring, though to be fair Jones is getting a bit more of their support over the incumbent. 
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #416 on: May 04, 2021, 08:16:03 PM »

You guys fail to see how polarized Virginia is.  Yeah maybe Fairfax County (county where I live btw) doesn't go 70-30, but it's probably not dropping to 60/40.  As soon as the GOP nominee starts talking to downstate voters they are going to rile up NOVA the same way Trump did. 

Republicans are screwed here because their electorate is right wing nut jobs who they have to pander to but they make up a distinct minority of the vote now. 

Also, to people saying it's not 2017.  Maybe, but Biden is popular here and like others have said the state has gotten bluer since 2017 and blue areas are growing so that will counteract any natural shift to the GOP.  I stand by my prediction that if Terry wins the primary (which he probably will) Dems win the race in the neighborhood of 10 points.
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jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #417 on: May 04, 2021, 09:03:17 PM »

I am very concerned because god has told me that the GOP could win VA gov and the astrology seems to favor youngkin or mcaufflie but I need birth times to confirm that. I have emailed both campaigns but neither has given me their exact birth times so I am working with only their Date of Birth and birth location.
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VAR
VARepublican
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« Reply #418 on: May 04, 2021, 09:10:04 PM »

Anyway, my current prediction:

McAuliffe 53.5%
Republican* 45.9%
Other 0.6%

*I don't expect it to be Chase.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #419 on: May 04, 2021, 09:11:57 PM »

Anyway, my current prediction:

McAuliffe 53.5%
Republican* 45.9%
Other 0.6%

*I don't expect it to be Chase.

Who do you think is most likely to be the GOP nominee? Youngkin's stock seems to be rising.
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #420 on: May 04, 2021, 10:01:42 PM »
« Edited: May 04, 2021, 10:06:05 PM by 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 »

I've been getting flooded with anti-Chase mailers from Club for Growth.  Mainly focusing on her being disloyal to the party but apparently she was praised by the League of Conservation Voters or something at some point ?  Anyway, nothing in the mail telling me when or where to vote.  Had to figure that out myself. I didn't realize until today that it's this weekend. My location if I go would be about 20 minutes away.  Am I eligible to vote in it?   I have no idea.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #421 on: May 04, 2021, 10:12:23 PM »

I've been getting flooded with anti-Chase mailers from Club for Growth.  Mainly focusing on her being disloyal to the party but apparently she was praised by the League of Conservation Voters or something at some point ?  Anyway, nothing in the mail telling me when or where to vote.  Had to figure that out myself. I didn't realize until today that it's this weekend. My location if I go would be about 20 minutes away.  Am I eligible to vote in it?   I have no idea.

No, you had to fill out a form to the state party and send it in to be eligible.  You've already failed.
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #422 on: May 04, 2021, 11:06:06 PM »

I've been getting flooded with anti-Chase mailers from Club for Growth.  Mainly focusing on her being disloyal to the party but apparently she was praised by the League of Conservation Voters or something at some point ?  Anyway, nothing in the mail telling me when or where to vote.  Had to figure that out myself. I didn't realize until today that it's this weekend. My location if I go would be about 20 minutes away.  Am I eligible to vote in it?   I have no idea.

No, you had to fill out a form to the state party and send it in to be eligible.  You've already failed.

Or maybe the VA GOP failed. The campaigns failed.
Like, where is this information?   Why are candidates and PACs spending so much money on ads to tell people who to vote for who are most likely clueless about the process, without doing anything to clue them in?
What's the game plan?  Intentional obscurity or incompetence or some combination?
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #423 on: May 04, 2021, 11:46:28 PM »


What's the game plan?  Intentional obscurity or incompetence or some combination?

Yes

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/here-s-complicated-way-virginia-republicans-will-pick-their-nominee-n1262031

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/lot-confusion-virginia-republicans-stumble-over-their-own-voter-id-n1265887
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #424 on: May 05, 2021, 07:47:02 AM »

The fear among those with power was that if the GOP had a open primary, it would be a Chase triumph, and they wanted to have a closed insider convention so that the electable candidates could win. However, this firehouse primary that is the result of compromise between the two sides, appears to have been the worst of both worlds. Enough people signed up that the insiders are drowned out, and if the small-d democrats had their way and voters went to a primary, its likely Youngkin or Snyder would win. Having a insider convention where the most motivated and angry show up is a recipe for a Chase surprise - see the Utah conventions and their contradictory relationship with the Republican electorate.
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