Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[freepcrusher]

I don't live in Virginia but I might be tempted to vote for Youngkin depending on how the legislature plays out. What I'm more worried about is if the state ends up in a republican trifecta.

Well the state senate isn't up until 2023, so that's the earliest a trifecta can happen unless a Democrat dies, resigns, or switches parties.

nevermind then. Nothing about Youngkin is offputting the way Cucinelli would be. It's hard to compare him to governors in other states since Virginia only allows one term but depending on how he would fare as governor he could either be like Hogan (successful) or Rauner (not as much).

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I don't live in Virginia but I might be tempted to vote for Youngkin depending on how the legislature plays out. What I'm more worried about is if the state ends up in a republican trifecta.

Well the state senate isn't up until 2023, so that's the earliest a trifecta can happen unless a Democrat dies, resigns, or switches parties.

Nothing about Youngkin is offputting the way Cucinelli would be.

Given how the attack ads have only just begun, I'd reserve judgement for another few months.

[wbrocks67]

President Trump got 44% in Virginia both in 2016 and 2020 supposedly even though i wonder how much higher it really was. Maybe Youngkin can do better to the point of something like 48% but I am not sure about enough of a level to win? But haha maybe more months of Biden and Harris angering voters who aren’t partisan Democratic will do the trick? But then again Virginia has lots of partisan Dem voters now compared to 2004 right?

this is not reality

[Non Swing Voter]

Why do morons like Youngkin, who secretly want to get into politics/are interested in politics, make statements that can easily come back to haunt them like that? 

[Pollster]

Why do morons like Youngkin, who secretly want to get into politics/are interested in politics, make statements that can easily come back to haunt them like that? 

Because when you aren't actively politicking, there's no use in engaging in the performative hyperbolics that politicking has been reduced to (especially when interacting with somebody who has direct influence over your bottom line).

[Non Swing Voter]

Why do morons like Youngkin, who secretly want to get into politics/are interested in politics, make statements that can easily come back to haunt them like that? 

Because when you aren't actively politicking, there's no use in engaging in the performative hyperbolics that politicking has been reduced to (especially when interacting with somebody who has direct influence over your bottom line).

Then just say nothing, why suck up?  he knew he was going to eventually get into politics.  people don't wake up one day and say "I'm gonna run for governor."  The fact that he couldn't keep his mouth shut makes me think he has poor judgement and would do a piss poor job running the state.

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/gabriellaborter/status/1407463741235642369

There is already violence happening..

The aftermath of nov 2nd will be intense and there is no reason not to expect mass violence throughout the state.  Several state national guards will have to be called in.

[PSOL]

Virginia is literally going to be smooth sailing to another Democratic Governor.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The aftermath of nov 2nd will be intense and there is no reason not to expect mass violence throughout the state.  Several state national guards will have to be called in.

Saving this post in the likely event that, at most, we see rallies with over 10 people attending.

Or cops get called to a precinct and the incident is so minor that they don't arrest anyone.

[jamestroll]

My preliminary prediction:

McAufflie will not win Virginia Beach under any circumstances.

[slothdem]

My preliminary prediction:

I think you can make Virginia Beach red on this map, and maybe Chesapeake too. My lowkey hot take is that James City is going to vote blue.

[Skill and Chance]

My preliminary prediction:



Terry McAuliffe (D) - 52%
Glenn Youngkin (R) - 46%

Reasonable, though I would put the PV a little closer because McAuliffe has more to worry about than Biden in outer NOVA.

[Skill and Chance]

My preliminary prediction:

I think you can make Virginia Beach red on this map, and maybe Chesapeake too. My lowkey hot take is that James City is going to vote blue.

FWIW if it's McAuliffe +6 on a uniform swing away from Biden, James City and Virginia Beach would be D+0.  Stafford would be R+0.

[Chips]

My preliminary prediction:



Terry McAuliffe (D) - 52%
Glenn Youngkin (R) - 46%

Looks reasonable.

[jamestroll]

Also, has anyone else noticed that the cyber attacks which caused mass shortages on the east coast just so happened to “coincidentally” happen as Youngkin won the nomination. I really do think he was behind the cyber attacks and paid people off to help his campaign.

[Non Swing Voter]

There is already violence happening..

The aftermath of nov 2nd will be intense and there is no reason not to expect mass violence throughout the state.  Several state national guards will have to be called in.

Literally no-one will care when Youngkin loses, not even Youngkin voters.  He doesn't inspire a cult following like Trump did.  He's as interesting as wet paint which is also a standard beige tone.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The aftermath of nov 2nd will be intense and there is no reason not to expect mass violence throughout the state.  Several state national guards will have to be called in.

Also, has anyone else noticed that the cyber attacks which caused mass shortages on the east coast just so happened to “coincidentally” happen as Youngkin won the nomination. I really do think he was behind the cyber attacks and paid people off to help his campaign.

Are you alright? I'm getting a little worried about you.

[beaver2.0]

I think this will be close.

[Spark]

My preliminary prediction: (Repost)



Former Governor Terence McAuliffe (D) - 1,395,857 votes, 52.57%
Businessman Glenn Youngkin (R) - 1,215,793 votes, 45.79%

I think it can be a little closer than this due to it being an off-year election when turnout is lower, as well as it being during Biden's term. Even still, I don't see Youngkin building the coalition needed in order to win this one. Youngkin is too tied to Trump, who is deeply unpopular in the state. I believe Youngkin is trying to tone down some rhetoric and moderate on social issues to appeal to suburbanites. If he wants to win, he has to compete in NOVA by cutting the margins in Fairfax to something like 65-35, and lose Loudoun by a respectable margin around ~8%.

The good news for Youngkin is that I do believe McAuliffe will run behind Northam somewhat in SoE Virginia, where Northam had home field advantage. That will help Youngkin's chances. I think Youngkin flips Chesterfield too as it was close last time and any shift to the right will flip that county. McAuliffe even lost Chesterfield and Virginia Beach in 2013. Some other factors that can help the Republicans is that voters are fired up about Northam's conduct in office, anti-gun policies, and CRT. That can boost turnout but it won't be enough to win unless Youngkin can turnout Trump's base while simultaneously making in roads with college-educated voters. It's going to be a heavy lift.

In the end, McAuliffe should cruise to re-election by at least 6.5%, my margin has it at 6.78%. I am less bullish on the Republicans this time around, they seem to be in disarray like in other states such as GA and AZ. So my confidence is pretty low for a GOP win here but things can definitely change.

[wbrocks67]

Glenn Youngkin calls Asian Americans 'yellow' in April interview

https://americanindependent.com/virginia-gop-governor-nominee-glenn-youngkin-asian-americans-yellow-terry-mcauliffe-judy-chu-kathy-tran/

[Young Conservative]

Glenn Youngkin calls Asian Americans 'yellow' in April interview

https://americanindependent.com/virginia-gop-governor-nominee-glenn-youngkin-asian-americans-yellow-terry-mcauliffe-judy-chu-kathy-tran/

This is a nothing-burger.

[Lognog]

Glenn Youngkin calls Asian Americans 'yellow' in April interview

https://americanindependent.com/virginia-gop-governor-nominee-glenn-youngkin-asian-americans-yellow-terry-mcauliffe-judy-chu-kathy-tran/

This is a nothing-burger.

-George Allen circa 2006

[Non Swing Voter]

Youngkin can improve in southern Virginia, true.  I was pretty surprised in 2017 when everything but NOVA was coming in and it was basically 50/50 in the returns.  I expect Youngkin might lead the rest of the state by a bit.  But for him to actually win he definitely needs to cut the margin down (perhaps substantially) in Fairfax, and focusing on garbage conservative social issues like this PE teacher who probably just wants to become this weeks right wing celebrity on FoxNews isn't going to do it. 

On the surface Youngkin looks like a good candidate (business focus, from NOVA, not a politician) but thus far he's run an absolute garbage campaign and quite frankly he's looking like a clown with all this culture war BS.  It's absolutely perplexing why he's focusing on social issues as a Republican in a state like Virginia.  My only thought is that Republicans have some kind of internal metric showing that their voters are less likely to vote than Democrats with Trump not on the ballot in an off year.  This might be a real serious issue for them because particularly in a state like Virginia their voters are far far far less educated as a group and therefore less likely to be consistent/reliable voters.

[Orwell]

I’m going for McAullife +11

[Benjamin Frank]

Glenn Younkin Scrutinized for Pushing Layoffs

Associated Press: “While creating big profits for the firm’s investors, Carlyle’s deals sometimes triggered layoffs, outsourced jobs and complaints from the people served by the companies acquired.”

“Carlyle made investments in several companies under Youngkin’s leadership that moved at least 1,300 American jobs offshore.”

https://apnews.com/article/del-rey-virginia-seniors-business-government-and-politics-acf69af841f7752a3b08726d1f9feda5?emci=fb3ea6c8-60da-eb11-a7ad-501ac57b8fa7&emdi=f59474ab-66da-eb11-a7ad-501ac57b8fa7&ceid=1935543

I can't believe populist working class hero Youngkin would do this. /s