Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[MT Treasurer]

My guess is that we’re not going to see polling underestimate Democrats to nearly the same extent as in 2013/2014 given how considerably more 'high-propensity' the Democratic coalition in Virginia has become (most polling 'misses', even while acknowledging margin of error, can be attributed to changing party coalitions more than any late movement in the race/a sudden shift in the environment). Even with the overwhelming Trump surge in rural/small-town VA in 2016, statewide polling was pretty much spot on that year, likely due to the fact that whatever GOP surge the polls did not pick up in the R parts of the state was canceled out by a GA-type miss in the urban/suburban areas (NOVA in particular), where the dramatic increase in the non-native-born population and D gains among a traditionally more R-leaning voter bloc probably skewed the model a little too R in those areas.

I’d sooner bet on polling slightly underestimating Democrats than Republicans this November (somewhat similar to what happened in the NM-1 special election). We’re also not seeing the double-digit drop-off in the president's approval numbers that we saw between 2012 and 2013/2014, as Biden's numbers have been steady and there’s little evidence that he has lost considerable if any ground in the state since November (if he has, it’s certainly not enough to make up a 10-point deficit). Also, even modest/non-negligible inroads in NOVA won’t cut it for Youngkin unless he can reverse the rapid D trend in Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads/the independent cities. It’s really hard to overstate how much of an uphill race this is for the GOP.

[Matty]

My guess is that we’re not going to see polling underestimate Democrats to nearly the same extent as in 2013/2014 given how considerably more 'high-propensity' the Democratic coalition in Virginia has become (most polling 'misses', even while acknowledging margin of error, can be attributed to changing party coalitions more than any late movement in the race/a sudden shift in the environment). Even with the overwhelming Trump surge in rural/small-town VA in 2016, statewide polling was pretty much spot on that year, likely due to the fact that whatever GOP surge the polls did not pick up in the R parts of the state was canceled out by a GA-type miss in the urban/suburban areas (NOVA in particular), where the dramatic increase in the non-native-born population and D gains among a traditionally more R-leaning voter bloc probably skewed the model a little too R in those areas.

I’d sooner bet on polling slightly underestimating Democrats than Republicans this November (somewhat similar to what happened in the NM-1 special election). We’re also not seeing the double-digit drop-off in the president's approval numbers that we saw between 2012 and 2013/2014, as Biden's numbers have been steady and there’s little evidence that he has lost considerable if any ground in the state since November (if he has, it’s certainly not enough to make up a 10-point deficit). Also, even modest/non-negligible inroads in NOVA won’t cut it for Youngkin unless he can reverse the rapid D trend in Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads/the independent cities. It’s really hard to overstate how much of an uphill race this is for the GOP.

No serious person thinks the race is in doubt

Margin is the interest here

[CookieDamage]

The last gubernatorial election heavily underestimated Northam and I won't be surprised if it happens again. I don't really care how polls over- or under-estimated Biden or Senators tho, those are pretty different races.

Agreed on the senators and Biden, but the fact that McAuliffe himself was heavily overestimated in 2013 when running for the same office could be relevant here.

It is relevant, but it was 8 years ago, while the 2017 underestimation was more recent and imo more relevant

[Non Swing Voter]

The last gubernatorial election heavily underestimated Northam and I won't be surprised if it happens again. I don't really care how polls over- or under-estimated Biden or Senators tho, those are pretty different races.

Agreed on the senators and Biden, but the fact that McAuliffe himself was heavily overestimated in 2013 when running for the same office could be relevant here.

State has changed a lot since then. 

Arlington is still not in Fairfax but NOVA is very different and rural southwest Virginia is decaying (and largely maxed out for the GOP) so any polling error is probably in favor of Youngkin.  Plus I just don't see Trumpkin bringing any special qualities or anything to the race that can cause some undetected polling error in his favor.  He literally looks like Brett Kavanaugh but with 1/10 the charisma. 

Off topic but his latest ad is terrible.  It's 50 old white guys walking one way and him (literally an old white guy) walking a different way saying he's not like every other politician. 

[Chips]

What do you think are the ceilings and floors for McAuliffe and Youngkin?

Here's mine:

McAuliffe floor: 48%
McAuliffe ceiling: 55%

Youngkin floor: 43%
Youngin ceiling: 50%

Basically I could see anywhere from a sizable 12 point margin for McAuliffe to a narrow 2 point win for Youngkin. My prediction has McAuliffe up by 5 at the moment.

[President Johnson]

What do you think are the ceilings and floors for McAuliffe and Youngkin?

Here's mine:

McAuliffe floor: 48%
McAuliffe ceiling: 55%

Youngkin floor: 43%
Youngin ceiling: 50%

Basically I could see anywhere from a sizable 12 point margin for McAuliffe to a narrow 2 point win for Youngkin. My prediction has McAuliffe up by 5 at the moment.

I'd more say:

McAuliffe floor: 49.5%
McAuliffe ceiling: 56%

Youngkin floor: 41%
Youngkin ceiling: 48%


My prediction remains 53-45% for T-Mac.

[Duke of York]

What do you think are the ceilings and floors for McAuliffe and Youngkin?

Here's mine:

McAuliffe floor: 48%
McAuliffe ceiling: 55%

Youngkin floor: 43%
Youngin ceiling: 50%

Basically I could see anywhere from a sizable 12 point margin for McAuliffe to a narrow 2 point win for Youngkin. My prediction has McAuliffe up by 5 at the moment.

I'd more say:

McAuliffe floor: 49.5%
McAuliffe ceiling: 56%

Youngkin floor: 41%
Youngkin ceiling: 48%


My prediction remains 53-45% for T-Mac.

your prediction is about the same margin as 2017.

[Skill and Chance]

What do you think are the ceilings and floors for McAuliffe and Youngkin?

Here's mine:

McAuliffe floor: 48%
McAuliffe ceiling: 55%

Youngkin floor: 43%
Youngin ceiling: 50%

Basically I could see anywhere from a sizable 12 point margin for McAuliffe to a narrow 2 point win for Youngkin. My prediction has McAuliffe up by 5 at the moment.

I'd more say:

McAuliffe floor: 49.5%
McAuliffe ceiling: 56%

Youngkin floor: 41%
Youngkin ceiling: 48%


My prediction remains 53-45% for T-Mac.

your prediction is about the same margin as 2017.

Yeah, that's unrealistic IMO.  Between Trump being out of office and Republicans having a much stronger candidate than the alt-right curious former Enron lobbyist they ran last time, there's every reason to expect a closer election this time. 

IMO it will be similar to the 2013 margin, the legislature will flip and so could LG.  They are sleepwalking into this and really could blow it.   

[President Johnson]

What do you think are the ceilings and floors for McAuliffe and Youngkin?

Here's mine:

McAuliffe floor: 48%
McAuliffe ceiling: 55%

Youngkin floor: 43%
Youngin ceiling: 50%

Basically I could see anywhere from a sizable 12 point margin for McAuliffe to a narrow 2 point win for Youngkin. My prediction has McAuliffe up by 5 at the moment.

I'd more say:

McAuliffe floor: 49.5%
McAuliffe ceiling: 56%

Youngkin floor: 41%
Youngkin ceiling: 48%


My prediction remains 53-45% for T-Mac.

your prediction is about the same margin as 2017.

Yeah, that's unrealistic IMO.  Between Trump being out of office and Republicans having a much stronger candidate than the alt-right curious former Enron lobbyist they ran last time, there's every reason to expect a closer election this time. 

IMO it will be similar to the 2013 margin, the legislature will flip and so could LG.  They are sleepwalking into this and really could blow it.   

Youngkin doesn't strike me as a very strong candidate. Some random businessguy without that much name ID and who has embraced Trump. A well known, well funded former governor with track record of success and deep connections in the state should easily win this matchup. Yes, I predicted a similar result as in 2017.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This really feels like 2017 all over again. Right down to folks overhyping the competitiveness of the race because the Republican doesn't support Trump 100% of the time. It only feels like 4 years ago exactly that Gillespie was considered a threat because he distanced himself from Trump as much as possible without completely abandoning him. Things changed 4 months later and I expect things to change 4 months from now.

I think the only reasons folks consider this a close race is because they still see it as the Virginia of 2013 & Biden is in the White House. I don't see TMac winning by any less than 3 points and it shouldn't be a surprise at all if he ends up winning by 7-9 points. But apparently, it will be.

[Horus]

No progressive should be upset with Lee Carter's loss. Guy did more harm to the movement than good and the people of his district were clearly tired of the drama.

[PSOL]

No progressive should be upset with Lee Carter's loss. Guy did more harm to the movement than good and the people of his district were clearly tired of the drama.

It’s very predictable given that he didn’t meet with community leaders or established a base of grassroots supporters. Paralleling Bessemer, AL— an inexperienced organizer ran a campaign entirely online—yet with the former there was an excuse of threats made by Amazon and other dirty tricks in the election. Lee Carter blew a perfectly winnable race.

Still, I’ll miss the fact that his Twitter was a great dirty pleasure coming from a politician.

[Non Swing Voter]

What do you think are the ceilings and floors for McAuliffe and Youngkin?

Here's mine:

McAuliffe floor: 48%
McAuliffe ceiling: 55%

Youngkin floor: 43%
Youngin ceiling: 50%

Basically I could see anywhere from a sizable 12 point margin for McAuliffe to a narrow 2 point win for Youngkin. My prediction has McAuliffe up by 5 at the moment.

I'd more say:

McAuliffe floor: 49.5%
McAuliffe ceiling: 56%

Youngkin floor: 41%
Youngkin ceiling: 48%


My prediction remains 53-45% for T-Mac.

your prediction is about the same margin as 2017.

Yeah, that's unrealistic IMO.  Between Trump being out of office and Republicans having a much stronger candidate than the alt-right curious former Enron lobbyist they ran last time, there's every reason to expect a closer election this time. 

IMO it will be similar to the 2013 margin, the legislature will flip and so could LG.  They are sleepwalking into this and really could blow it.   

Youngkin is definitely not a much stronger candidate.  His commercials are awful.  He's running an out of touch campaign.  He's basically just a wealthier Gillespie.  Which I guess counts for something but he's definitely less savvy than Gillespie was.  He's basically running as if the electorate were South Carolina not Virginia. 

[Devils30]

What do people think about the Virginia HoD? Some are saying GOP could win it back but looking at this chart it looks pretty bleak.

Only 3 Dems are in districts Biden won by less than 10% and all of these 3 were at least Biden +5.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1838276900

[VAR]

^Not to mention, Republicans are looking to defend Kirk Cox's HD 66 (he's retiring), which voted for Biden by approximately 10 points. Granted, that district is quite less blue downballot but still gonna be a tough one to hold.

However, there's redistricting, which may or may not change the HoD landscape depending on whether or not the new maps are in place by the time of the election.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ethanclynne/status/1405950168328032258

[Skill and Chance]

^Not to mention, Republicans are looking to defend Kirk Cox's HD 66 (he's retiring), which voted for Biden by approximately 10 points. Granted, that district is quite less blue downballot but still gonna be a tough one to hold.

However, there's redistricting, which may or may not change the HoD landscape depending on whether or not the new maps are in place by the time of the election.

I think the presumption is it will happen on the current maps due to the delay, with possibly a special on the new lines in 2022?

And yes, off-year downballot is generally R+5 vs. the last presidential election, so the Cox seat probably still flips, but a couple of the Dems in Biden+5ish districts could still lose. 

[jamestroll]

It will be halarious if Youngkin does better in Nova as compared to Trump and people will wrongfully say for years that Youngkin won Nova even when he didn't. We still have people absolutely convinced Mitt Romney won Nova when it is clearly not true.

[Skill and Chance]

It will be halarious if Youngkin does better in Nova as compared to Trump and people will wrongfully say for years that Youngkin won Nova even when he didn't. We still have people absolutely convinced Mitt Romney won Nova when it is clearly not true.

Well, I think that's pretty much a given unless he starts campaigning with Trump.

[freepcrusher]

I don't live in Virginia but I might be tempted to vote for Youngkin depending on how the legislature plays out. What I'm more worried about is if the state ends up in a republican trifecta.

[Donald Wilders]

President Trump got 44% in Virginia both in 2016 and 2020 supposedly even though i wonder how much higher it really was. Maybe Youngkin can do better to the point of something like 48% but I am not sure about enough of a level to win? But haha maybe more months of Biden and Harris angering voters who aren’t partisan Democratic will do the trick? But then again Virginia has lots of partisan Dem voters now compared to 2004 right?

[cg41386]

I don't live in Virginia but I might be tempted to vote for Youngkin depending on how the legislature plays out. What I'm more worried about is if the state ends up in a republican trifecta.

Not happening.

[LtNOWIS]

I don't live in Virginia but I might be tempted to vote for Youngkin depending on how the legislature plays out. What I'm more worried about is if the state ends up in a republican trifecta.

Well the state senate isn't up until 2023, so that's the earliest a trifecta can happen unless a Democrat dies, resigns, or switches parties.

[Devils30]

The old map was great for the GOP in maximizing its numbers in 2011-13 but it's now a pretty fair map as NoVA's realignment made formerly Lean R seats into safe/likely D.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/ethanclynne/status/1405950168328032258

That's a great ad. I don't know why some folks actually think Youngkin is a strong candidate. Not that another Republican would be likely to beat T-Mac, but Youngkin isn't the best choice to make the Democrats sweat.