Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration
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  Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration
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Author Topic: Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration  (Read 335310 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #825 on: June 08, 2021, 07:38:14 PM »

Virginia and the Democratic Party will be much better off once he's officially out of office.

Good riddance.
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
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« Reply #826 on: June 08, 2021, 07:41:18 PM »

I know Lee Carter is a DSAer, but is there any reason beyond that that Atlas doesn't seem to like him much? I haven't really been following what he's been up to.

Lee Carter is terminally Online and would have probably gone down in 2018 if his primary opponent wasn't a Republican.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #827 on: June 08, 2021, 07:42:38 PM »



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Torrain
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« Reply #828 on: June 08, 2021, 07:44:14 PM »

On DDHQ, it looks like Mark Levine might win the City of Alexandria in the LG race:

Mark Levine 2,880 30.69%
Hala Ayala    2,531 26.97%
Sam Rasoul 2,081 22.17%
Andria McClellan    637 6.79%
Sean Perryman    628    6.69%

Obviously that's not too surprising, given it's his home turf, but it's still interesting that we might end up with four candidates picking up counties/cities on the map. Given that he's officially out of a job in the state legislature, at least he can claim to have won something tonight.

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #829 on: June 08, 2021, 07:45:12 PM »


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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #830 on: June 08, 2021, 07:50:14 PM »

Genuine question:

will the democrats have single election this year or early next that doesn't contain at least SOME good news for them?

Besides the texas jungle they got locked out of, they have done well in both margin and turnout everywhere.

Hopefully if congress is 100% stagnant for the next year, that could damper things, but I am sick and tired of y'all being able to hang your hat on something.

lol

It's just bizarre. Barack Obama was on another planet than biden when it came to excitement and enthusiasm, and even he couldn't help what was a putrid 2009 and 2010 for democrats.

It has to end sometime, doesn't it? This endless string of good election news for them?
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #831 on: June 08, 2021, 07:51:31 PM »
« Edited: June 08, 2021, 07:54:46 PM by "?" »

With McAuliffe successfully consolidating Democratic support in a multi-candidate primary & Dem turnout nearly-matching the 2017 primary, this clearly looks like the makings of a 3% Lean D win. Chesterfield County is gonna be a bloodbath.
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #832 on: June 08, 2021, 07:54:17 PM »

Carter was a "there's already enough housing, it's just in the wrong hands" anti-development DemSoc, aka the worst type. Between that and his online personality, he was a nuisance for the Dems and little more.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #833 on: June 08, 2021, 07:54:35 PM »

With McAuliffe successfully consolidating Democratic support in a multi-candidate primary & Dem turnout nearly-matching the 2017 primary, this clearly looks like the makings of a 3% Lean D win.

maybe not 3%, but I don't get why it is so unreasonable to expect it in the 5-7 range.

youngkin is a lot more appealing to the state than trump was.

It is a solid blue state at this point.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #834 on: June 08, 2021, 07:56:54 PM »

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KaiserDave
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« Reply #835 on: June 08, 2021, 08:05:00 PM »

Glorious night
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #836 on: June 08, 2021, 08:08:10 PM »


Why? besides perhaps higher than expected turnout (although still lower than 2017 and factoring in population growth of the state), the man widely expected to win, won.

Congrats on a boring mundate white dude who was already governor...yet again becoming governor.

Also, I guess none of you are bothered by him channeling his inner trump here?

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tjstarling
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« Reply #837 on: June 08, 2021, 08:09:24 PM »

Genuine question:

will the democrats have single election this year or early next that doesn't contain at least SOME good news for them?

Besides the texas jungle they got locked out of, they have done well in both margin and turnout everywhere.

Hopefully if congress is 100% stagnant for the next year, that could damper things, but I am sick and tired of y'all being able to hang your hat on something.

lol

It's just bizarre. Barack Obama was on another planet than biden when it came to excitement and enthusiasm, and even he couldn't help what was a putrid 2009 and 2010 for democrats.

It has to end sometime, doesn't it? This endless string of good election news for them?

I personally don’t think it will be enough to save them from have a not very good midterm, but I get the genuine impression that the Obama years and subsequent Trump presidency taught many Dem voters a lesson - that it does matter that a GOP with little interest in anything but power, demagoguery, and obstruction should be stopped. I really think McConnell’s Supreme Court antics were a tangible illustration of the extent to which the GOP will use its power that even lower-propensity voting Dems could fully appreciate the stakes. I think Dems finally appreciate the full extent of what GOP control means - hence the GA runoff results which defied traditional runoff performance for Ds. The changing nature of the Dem electorate is certainly playing a role as well. Make no mistake though, the GOP will get their voters out by employing the tactics they often use as well.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #838 on: June 08, 2021, 08:10:51 PM »

I know Lee Carter is a DSAer, but is there any reason beyond that that Atlas doesn't seem to like him much? I haven't really been following what he's been up to.

He's extremely annoying on twitter and spends more time there than being a representative

Its not the US house.
the VA house is a part time job for a month or 2 per year.
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LtNOWIS
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« Reply #839 on: June 08, 2021, 08:12:42 PM »


Honestly this is a smashing success up and down the ballot. Pretty much all the results are exactly what I wanted. Delegates Mark Levine, Lee Carter, Steve Heretick, and Ibraheem Samirah are the only Dem incumbents I would've wanted to lose their primaries, and they're the only ones who did lose.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #840 on: June 08, 2021, 08:13:22 PM »

Genuine question:

will the democrats have single election this year or early next that doesn't contain at least SOME good news for them?

Besides the texas jungle they got locked out of, they have done well in both margin and turnout everywhere.

Hopefully if congress is 100% stagnant for the next year, that could damper things, but I am sick and tired of y'all being able to hang your hat on something.

lol

It's just bizarre. Barack Obama was on another planet than biden when it came to excitement and enthusiasm, and even he couldn't help what was a putrid 2009 and 2010 for democrats.

It has to end sometime, doesn't it? This endless string of good election news for them?

I personally don’t think it will be enough to save them from have a not very good midterm, but I get the genuine impression that the Obama years and subsequent Trump presidency taught many Dem voters a lesson - that it does matter that a GOP with little interest in anything but power, demagoguery, and obstruction should be stopped. I really think McConnell’s Supreme Court antics were a tangible illustration of the extent to which the GOP will use its power that even lower-propensity voting Dems could fully appreciate the stakes. I think Dems finally appreciate the full extent of what GOP control means - hence the GA runoff results which defied traditional runoff performance for Ds. The changing nature of the Dem electorate is certainly playing a role as well. Make no mistake though, the GOP will get their voters out by employing the tactics they often use as well.

This is what is so puzzling though. The bush years, complete with the horrible war, crashed economy, gay marriage bans, etc, didn't keep dems motivated at all past the 2008 election. Once Obama won, there was a easily observable crash in dem interest in elections and turnout.
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leecannon
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« Reply #841 on: June 08, 2021, 08:18:47 PM »

The Lt. Governor map is 100% my new most satisfying election map. Move over 2006 Oklahoma Gubernatorial!
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #842 on: June 08, 2021, 08:20:09 PM »


Why? besides perhaps higher than expected turnout (although still lower than 2017 and factoring in population growth of the state), the man widely expected to win, won.

Congrats on a boring mundate white dude who was already governor...yet again becoming governor.

Also, I guess none of you are bothered by him channeling his inner trump here?



McAullife himself is irrelevant to my celebrations
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #843 on: June 08, 2021, 08:23:50 PM »
« Edited: June 08, 2021, 09:09:24 PM by "?" »

With McAuliffe successfully consolidating Democratic support in a multi-candidate primary & Dem turnout nearly-matching the 2017 primary, this clearly looks like the makings of a 3% Lean D win.

maybe not 3%, but I don't get why it is so unreasonable to expect it in the 5-7 range.

youngkin is a lot more appealing to the state than trump was.

It is a solid blue state at this point.

1. I don't find "More appealing to Virginians than Trump" to be particularly notable. Especially since Trump has already endorsed Youngkin. Tomorrow is when both campaigns start getting into higher gear and I wouldn't be surprised if Youngkin becomes less appealing 5 months from now than he does at the present time. (PS: Wasn't Gillespie considered "More appealing to Virginia than Trump" around this time in 2017?)

2. 5-7% sounds reasonable, but that 5-7% gap seems pretty tough for Youngkin to close. I just have trouble seeing this race as Lean D unless you're prioritizing margins over liklihood.

Basically, we'll see how the first polls look whenever they come. I think it'll tell us a lot even this far out.
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leecannon
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« Reply #844 on: June 08, 2021, 08:28:45 PM »

Delegates who lost re-election results;

Lost Renomination
Delegate Poindexter (R-09) - 37%
Delegate Levine (D-45) 41%
Delegate Carter (D-50) 38%
Delegate Heretick (D-79) 28%
Delegate Samirah (D-86) 48% [not called yet]


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Donerail
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« Reply #845 on: June 08, 2021, 08:29:28 PM »

Virginia and the Democratic Party will be much better off once he's officially out of office.
Definitely will not be — you should google the lady who's replacing him!
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leecannon
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« Reply #846 on: June 08, 2021, 08:33:18 PM »

Also if all leads hold up then McClellan will be the only one who didn’t win a city/county
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #847 on: June 08, 2021, 08:37:56 PM »

With McAuliffe successfully consolidating Democratic support in a multi-candidate primary & Dem turnout nearly-matching the 2017 primary, this clearly looks like the makings of a 3% Lean D win.

maybe not 3%, but I don't get why it is so unreasonable to expect it in the 5-7 range.

youngkin is a lot more appealing to the state than trump was.

It is a solid blue state at this point.

He's really not though.  His entire campaign is about pitching himself as an "outsider" (i.e., like Trump) and he talks about his "faith" in an obviously *wink* *wink* I hate abortion and gays kind of way.  He's just as unappealing as Trump with 1/10 the charisma.  That said, it could be in the 5-7 range just because it's an off year so you never know.  But I expect it to be closer to 10.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #848 on: June 08, 2021, 08:39:06 PM »


Why? besides perhaps higher than expected turnout (although still lower than 2017 and factoring in population growth of the state), the man widely expected to win, won.

Congrats on a boring mundate white dude who was already governor...yet again becoming governor.

Also, I guess none of you are bothered by him channeling his inner trump here?



He's not channeling his inner Trump, he's telling the truth.
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tjstarling
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« Reply #849 on: June 08, 2021, 08:41:09 PM »

Genuine question:

will the democrats have single election this year or early next that doesn't contain at least SOME good news for them?

Besides the texas jungle they got locked out of, they have done well in both margin and turnout everywhere.

Hopefully if congress is 100% stagnant for the next year, that could damper things, but I am sick and tired of y'all being able to hang your hat on something.

lol

It's just bizarre. Barack Obama was on another planet than biden when it came to excitement and enthusiasm, and even he couldn't help what was a putrid 2009 and 2010 for democrats.

It has to end sometime, doesn't it? This endless string of good election news for them?

I personally don’t think it will be enough to save them from have a not very good midterm, but I get the genuine impression that the Obama years and subsequent Trump presidency taught many Dem voters a lesson - that it does matter that a GOP with little interest in anything but power, demagoguery, and obstruction should be stopped. I really think McConnell’s Supreme Court antics were a tangible illustration of the extent to which the GOP will use its power that even lower-propensity voting Dems could fully appreciate the stakes. I think Dems finally appreciate the full extent of what GOP control means - hence the GA runoff results which defied traditional runoff performance for Ds. The changing nature of the Dem electorate is certainly playing a role as well. Make no mistake though, the GOP will get their voters out by employing the tactics they often use as well.

This is what is so puzzling though. The bush years, complete with the horrible war, crashed economy, gay marriage bans, etc, didn't keep dems motivated at all past the 2008 election. Once Obama won, there was a easily observable crash in dem interest in elections and turnout.


I think a number of things happened in the Obama years. First, the bottom fell out of the old Democratic coalition - this likely would have been, overall, unavoidable and was accelerated by cultural and racial anxiety towards Obama. Second, 08 was the first presidential election I could vote in even though I had followed elections and campaigning long before that race. I was in college at the time and remember the excitement many people felt (particularly younger people) towards the “hope and change” promises. Since I was a follower of politics and elections I never bought it (and have become even more jaded since that time which is why I really never bought the sh*t Sanders was selling in his runs), but many people did and were subsequently let down when big, structural changes failed to materialize. They didn’t vote. And Trump subsequently upped the ante in a way that democrats really could appreciate how unstable having the opposition control even one branch of government could be.

The thing is most voters are either dumb or pay very little attention or both. Ideology is so unimportant to most people. A Dem voter for instance is probably supportive of the intricacies Equality Act for example. But 90% couldn’t explain what’s in it or what it does or how it would impact them if at all. So they hear that the GOP filibusters the equality act and they sort of shrug their shoulders. It’s not tangible. But when they hear the GOP filibuster something with a lot of salience like a Supreme Court pick or a jobs/infrastructure package, that is more tangible and accessible. The voter gets the stakes there.
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