Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1391542938556145668

[Oryxslayer]

White did very well in NOVA, and his voters would have needed to break with their neighbors preferences to keep Smith out of contention after final reallocation. 

[LtNOWIS]

I think this is gonna come down to the wire. I think Smith could win a majority of the Jack White voters, but it might not be enough to make up his deficit.

Just curious, since this "convention" isn't run by the state, is there anything stopping someone from participating in the R vote and then turning around and voting in the D primary in June?

Legally, no. But the city and county Republican parties might see that you voted in Dem primaries and revoke your membership for the future.

[Oryxslayer]

Final round 2 numbers. Republicans in the know expect Smith to get more of the White delegates, and the final result will be close.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Are they only counting one office at a time?  Why?

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/DelRichAnderson/status/1391420043611807750?s=20

Today is the AG count. The results will be a portent of the electorates composition.

Such a diverse group of the VAGOP's finest.

And they're surely all fully vaccinated, too, given that they're all gathered indoors in close proximity for a presumably extended period of time without a single one of them wearing a mask.

Uh no... its been challenging to get Republicans in VA to get their vaccine.

They want zero lockdowns .. which I strongly agree with .. but not willing to take any steps to mitigate spread or be vaccinated. It's contradictory 

I hadn't really thought than an "/s" would be needed here since it'd just seemed so obvious, but go figure

[Oryxslayer]

Are they only counting one office at a time?  Why?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Today is AG, tomorrow LT. Gov, Tuesday Gov.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1391557351048679425?s=20

Basically this is only day one and the "preferred" candidate for the less notable race is already sweating badly. Real fears now of the Gov vote. And yes, Smith is a Chase ally.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1391564620263919617

Ok, at least they might save themselves from some embarrassment.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/elections_daily/status/1391569519039160326?s=21

[jamestroll]

The fact  that it was this close for the Attorney General nomination shows that Miyares has not been a strong campaigner anyway.

Probably still lean or tilt Democrat for the general election.

[Roll Roons]

The fact  that it was this close for the Attorney General nomination shows that Miyares has not been a strong campaigner anyway.

Probably still lean or tilt Democrat for the general election.

Campaigning for a convention is different than campaigning for a general election. But yes, Democrats are unquestionably still favored to varying degrees in all three statewide races.

[Chips]

jimmie's rating is basically mine. Lean D.

[jamestroll]

jimmie's rating is basically mine. Lean D.

Yes.. I am not entirely convinced college educated whites will still be voting Democratic.

I am actually not that worried about Nova at all. I am more worried about places Chesterfield County and Virginia Beach.

[Chips]

jimmie's rating is basically mine. Lean D.

Yes.. I am not entirely convinced college educated whites will still be voting Democratic.

I am actually not that worried about Nova at all. I am more worried about places Chesterfield County and Virginia Beach.

What do you think the statewide map would look like in a narrow Miyares victory?

I would assume it would be to take Trump's 2020 map and add:

Virginia Beach
Chesapeake
Suffolk
Chesterfield
Lynchburg
Winchester
Stafford
James City
Prince Edward
Staunton
Northampton
Surry
Montgomery
Radford

Get within 20% in Henrico, Prince William and Loudoun. Get within 35% in Fairfax.

That's what I'd assume the map would look like in a 1 point victory for Jason Miyares.

[Non Swing Voter]

To win the Republicans need to not just flip some of those downstate counties.  They also need to substantially cut down their deficits in Fairfax and Loudoun. 

I don't think they have much shot at cutting down the margins in Alexandria or Arlington and the turnout in both will be high.  Probably won't cut much in Prince William either.  I think they would need to get the Fairfax margin under 30 and the Loudoun margin under 20.  I don't think either will happen with the second rate candidates they have.

[Oryxslayer]

Final Result:

Miyares: 51.7%, 6,490 weighted votes

Smith: 48.3%, 6,064 weighted votes

With that, we move on to the Lt. Gov tomorrow.

[Roll Roons]

So apparently, they'll actually be counting Governor tomorrow and LG on Tuesday, starting at 9 AM.

[Duke of York]

To win the Republicans need to not just flip some of those downstate counties.  They also need to substantially cut down their deficits in Fairfax and Loudoun. 

I don't think they have much shot at cutting down the margins in Alexandria or Arlington and the turnout in both will be high.  Probably won't cut much in Prince William either.  I think they would need to get the Fairfax margin under 30 and the Loudoun margin under 20.  I don't think either will happen with the second rate candidates they have.

I dont see any of the trends in Virginia reversing. At most the Republicans lose by 6-8 but I dont see it being any closer than that.

[DINGO Joe]

Did the Rs provide raw vote by county?

[Non Swing Voter]

To win the Republicans need to not just flip some of those downstate counties.  They also need to substantially cut down their deficits in Fairfax and Loudoun. 

I don't think they have much shot at cutting down the margins in Alexandria or Arlington and the turnout in both will be high.  Probably won't cut much in Prince William either.  I think they would need to get the Fairfax margin under 30 and the Loudoun margin under 20.  I don't think either will happen with the second rate candidates they have.

I dont see any of the trends in Virginia reversing. At most the Republicans lose by 6-8 but I dont see it being any closer than that.

You'd be correct.  the only hope Republicans have is that Democrats push too far on "socialism" and raise taxes, etc.  But the Virginia Democratic Party seems to be messaging perfectly.  They haven't raised taxes and they are set to nominate Terry, a moderate who is liberal on social issues but fiscally responsible - a perfect fit for NOVA.  As long as democrats keep a tight grip on growing NOVA counties they should be fine, the math doesn't work for Republicans. 

Democrats nationally, and especially in states like Georgia, Texas, Arizona, and Florida should look at how the Virginia democrats have done things.  They have completely rammed through their agenda on social issues, the court, and race relations while being just moderate enough to avoid attacks.  They've completely neutered the Virginia GOP to the point where they are irrelevant to state politics at the local level.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

To win the Republicans need to not just flip some of those downstate counties.  They also need to substantially cut down their deficits in Fairfax and Loudoun. 

I don't think they have much shot at cutting down the margins in Alexandria or Arlington and the turnout in both will be high.  Probably won't cut much in Prince William either.  I think they would need to get the Fairfax margin under 30 and the Loudoun margin under 20.  I don't think either will happen with the second rate candidates they have.

I dont see any of the trends in Virginia reversing. At most the Republicans lose by 6-8 but I dont see it being any closer than that.

You'd be correct.  the only hope Republicans have is that Democrats push too far on "socialism" and raise taxes, etc.  But the Virginia Democratic Party seems to be messaging perfectly.  They haven't raised taxes and they are set to nominate Terry, a moderate who is liberal on social issues but fiscally responsible - a perfect fit for NOVA.  As long as democrats keep a tight grip on growing NOVA counties they should be fine, the math doesn't work for Republicans. 

Democrats nationally, and especially in states like Georgia, Texas, Arizona, and Florida should look at how the Virginia democrats have done things.  They have completely rammed through their agenda on social issues, the court, and race relations while being just moderate enough to avoid attacks.  They've completely neutered the Virginia GOP to the point where they are irrelevant to state politics at the local level.

Oh god no. Please don't spread social liberalism and fiscal moderation everywhere...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1391747715290353675?s=20

We are starting early today. And as correctly noted, today is now the Gov count, with the Lt. Gov tomorrow. Snyder's group thinks they have it, but after last night there are worries that there is a lurking Chase vote, with some insiders stating that Chose can only improve from Smith.

[Oryxslayer]

Results at 10% of weighted votes counted:

Amanda Chase: 24.46%
Glen Youngkin: 23.99%
Pete Snyder: 23.67%
Kirk Cox: 20.98%
Sergio de la Peña: 6.09%
Octavia Johnson: 0.49%
Peter Doran: 0.32%

Cox, Chase, and Youngkin have traded leads as these smaller counties weighted votes are inputted.

[Roll Roons]

Youngkin gaining in the latest count:

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1391772407808069634